Forecasting the USMNTs…

I’m aging, and I’ve witnessed the U.S. men’s national team being eliminated in the Gold Cup final against Mexico with little resistance.

I remember when a mostly MLS-driven lineup recorded a series of wins in the same tournament, prompting discussions on whether these players had more determination than their flashy counterparts in the Champions League. I recall those same players being vanquished by Turkey and Switzerland shortly before that.

I’ve seen former U.S. team members with podcasts express outrage when a few Europe-based players turned down calls to compete in the Gold Cup. I remember the fan uproar after the U.S. team was eliminated by Panama in the Nations League, despite their previous three consecutive victories under a different coach.

I’ve seen the majority of U.S. supporters celebrate when the program transitioned from Gregg Berhalter to a renowned coach like Mauricio Pochettino.

All these events happened within the last year and a half, alongside this week’s decisive 5-1 victory over Uruguay, marked by stunning goal finishes, fortunate ricochets, and subpar goalkeeping:

With just seven months remaining until the World Cup, it appears time is short. Yet, the U.S. fan base has experienced a multitude of changes in the last 18 months.

Between now and the summer, injuries will occur, unexpected talents will arise, some players might drop out of their club teams, and results will fluctuate that may not accurately represent the team’s true capabilities. Much is still pending.

To anticipate the future—and avoid the rollercoaster of results driven by emotions—we can reflect on the past. What insights can the last three World Cup cycles provide regarding the potential lineup when the U.S. kicks off at SoFi Stadium on June 12, 2026?

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– Statement win over Uruguay shows USMNT has come a long way
– USMNT’s Pochettino pushes back on talk of ‘regular’ players
– How the USMNT combats jet lag: Fly kits, supplements, sleep masks

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Who will start for the USMNT at the World Cup?

Let’s begin with 2010.

In the opening match against England, the U.S. lineup featured Tim Howard in goal. The defense included Steve Cherundolo at right back, Jay Demerit and Oguchi Onyewu in central positions, and Carlos Bocanegra on the left. Michael Bradley and Ricardo Clark anchored the midfield, with Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey playing as attacking midfielders. Jozy Altidore and Robbie Findley were at the front.

Seven players were expected: Howard, Onyewu, Bocanegra, Bradley, Donovan, Dempsey, and Altidore each had over 1,000 minutes for the U.S. the year prior. Though Cherundolo played only about 500 minutes due to injuries and competition from Jonathan Spector, he was the captain of Bundesliga club Hannover and was fit by the time the team arrived in South Africa.

Clark and Demerit also fit the “potential starter” category, with insufficient alternatives to consider. The surprise was Findley, who hadn’t played any minutes for the U.S. in 2009 but found his place in the lineup because of Charlie Davies’ unfortunate car accident that paved the way for him to pair with Altidore.

In 2009, Davies logged 750 minutes for the U.S. but couldn’t bounce back post-accident. Jonathan Bornstein was the only other nonstarter from South Africa to play more than 900 minutes, but he lost his position when Bob Bradley shifted Bocanegra to fullback. The two most-played players in 2009 were Spector and midfielder Benny Feilhaber, who contributed significant minutes off the bench in 2010.

This results in seven clear starters, one expected returnee from injury, two uncertain options, and one unexpected inclusion.

Now, let’s discuss 2014.

Once again, Howard took the position in goal. The defense was made up of Fabian Johnson at right back and Damarcus Beasley on the left, flanked by Geoff Cameron and Matt Besler in central roles. Manager Jurgen Klinsmann selected a diamond formation in midfield featuring Kyle Beckerman at the base with Jermaine Jones, Bradley, and Alejandro Bedoya as shuttlers. Dempsey operated just behind Altidore at the front.

In 2013, both Howard and Beasley, along with Altidore, logged over 1,000 minutes. Dempsey, Bradley, Jones, Cameron, and Besler all exceeded 900 minutes, while Bedoya, Beckerman, and Johnson registered around 820, 680, and 580 minutes respectively.

This distribution mirrors that of the previous cycle. Howard, Beasley, Altidore, Dempsey, Bradley, and Jones were all expected starters, while either Besler or Cameron was likely to join them in central defense. This suggests seven obvious starters once more.

Johnson filled Cherundolo’s role, being arguably the most skilled player available and having switched allegiance from Germany to the U.S. recently. Bedoya and Beckerman were included in the “maybe” group.

However, there was no surprise like Findley in the previous World Cup; instead, Landon Donovan, who had over 800 minutes the prior year, was surprisingly absent, along with Eddie Johnson and Clarence Goodson who were both major contributors in 2013.

From 2010 to 2014, the U.S. retained four key starters: Howard, Bradley, Dempsey, and Altidore. Due to failing to qualify, we cannot directly analyze the 2018 roster, so we jump to 2022.

Looking at the 2022 lineup for the opening match against Wales:

In goal, we had Matt Turner. In defense, Sergiño Dest played right back, Antonee Robinson covered the left, and Walker Zimmerman and Tim Ream anchored the center. The midfield consisted of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, and Yunus Musah for the first time. In attack, Christian Pulisic was on the left, Tim Weah on the right, and Josh Sargent in the center.

Turner was the only player to clock 1,000 minutes the previous year, reflecting a shift in the player pool toward more European-based members. Robinson and Adams each exceeded 700 minutes, with several others surpassing 600 minutes. Pulisic and Musah both played more than 500 minutes, while Weah, Sargent, and Ream fell short of that.

I believe Turner, Adams, Robinson, McKennie, Zimmerman, and Dest were likely starters in 2021, with Pulisic taking on the role of a player who is a must if healthy. Musah and Weah were uncertain, while Ream and Sargent came as surprises.

In 2021, Miles Robinson, Kellyn Acosta, and Sebastian Lletget each tallied over 1,000 minutes. Robinson would have started in Qatar had he not suffered an Achilles tear, while Acosta transitioned to a backup role after Musah emerged. Lletget was a favorite under Berhalter but couldn’t compete with the younger talents developing around him. Brenden Aaronson also played over 800 minutes in 2021 but was not a starter during the World Cup.

Projected Starters for the USMNT in the 2026 World Cup

To summarize, there have typically been around seven expected starters identified by the end of the year before the World Cup, one player guaranteed to start if fit, and various combinations of maybes and surprises.

Examining the past three World Cup lineups for the U.S., includes one player who entered with zero minutes the prior year, three with fewer than 500 minutes, 17 with between 500 and 900 minutes, and 11 who accrued over 1,000 minutes. On average, goalkeepers played 1,135 minutes before the tournament, while outfield players logged 799.

Remarkably, only a handful of the most skilled Americans managed to exceed 500 minutes this past year. They are:

Matt Freese: 1,170 minutes
Tim Ream: 1,108
Max Arfsten: 1,086
Chris Richards: 1,004
Alex Freeman: 976
Diego Luna: 953
Patrick Agyemang: 806
Malik Tillman: 765
Sebastian Berhalter: 704
Tyler Adams: 697
Luca de la Torre: 545

There are numerous players with fewer than 500 minutes including Pulisic, Dest, McKennie, Musah, Weah, Turner, Sargent, Aaronson, Robinson, Balogun, Cardoso, Reyna, Scally, Tessman, and Pepi.

Starting from the list of players with over 1,000 minutes, I predict Freese, Ream, and Richards to be starters. Furthermore, Arfsten’s inclusion is probable given Pochettino’s admiration for him, especially with the transition to a back three which can mitigate his defensive shortcomings; his limited playtime with Fulham wouldn’t impact this.

This gives us four likely starters, although we need six or seven total. Adams seems the definitive choice for the central midfielder role if fit.

Pochettino’s strategy often involves utilizing one of his center backs to play a role akin to a hybrid between a fullback and a center-back—which aligns with Freeman’s contributions against Uruguay, where he scored twice. Freeman could become one of the most exciting talents noted within the MLS fullback model.

Pulisic unquestionably takes the “if healthy, he starts” spot. Being the finest talent in the current player pool and the best American player in history, his presence during this World Cup is pivotal.

The remaining positions include right wing back, another spot in midfield, an attacking midfielder to pair with Pulisic, and the striker position.

As highlighted by Matthew Doyle for MLS Soccer, Pochettino’s influence seems to broaden perceptions of the American talent pool, making these predictions even more complex. Canada’s approach under their coach suggests teams might rely on a smaller core due to the expanded World Cup format, providing extra rest days, further contributing to the difficulty in projecting outcomes.

If Balogun is fit, he emerges as the top choice for the striker position—his striking ability and effective shot-taking set him apart, paired with his substantial minutes since the Gold Cup.

For right wing back, especially if Freeman takes on a center back role, Dest would be the ideal candidate despite his previous injuries which limited his playtime; a wingback’s responsibilities could also mask his defensive deficiencies.

Various options exist for the attacking midfielder alongside Pulisic, including Luna, Tillman, McKennie, Weah, Reyna, and possibly Aaronson or Zendejas. Given Reyna’s inconsistent situation, we’ll exclude him.

Tillman, while currently injured, might edge out others for inclusion in the lineup, not necessarily as my personal choice but perhaps aligning with the coach’s likely selections based on their recent interactions and playing time.

The last slot appears contested among McKennie, Tessman, Musah, and Cristian Roldan, with McKennie’s status lower on the list due to his absence from current call-ups. Speculatively, there’s a strong chance Roldan makes the lineup, especially since Pochettino has highlighted him as an ideal example of a complete player.

In each World Cup cycle, an unknown player often surprises by securing a first-team position, and McKennie seems to fit this narrative with his limited appearances thus far.

Ultimately, my predicted lineup might not be spot on. But considering approximately seven players as foundational this year, one injured star, and various individuals fluctuating in and out of the roster, it closely resembles historic U.S. lineups in recent World Cups.