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Ryan O’Hanlon
If you’re looking for a positive angle on the U.S. men’s national team captain suffering his second muscle injury this season, I’ve got some insights for you.
The website FBref offers various basic and advanced statistics for the top leagues in Europe and beyond. For a player to qualify for their leaderboards based on minutes-adjusted stats, they must play in at least one-third of their team’s minutes. Despite sitting out five matches for AC Milan due to a hamstring injury sustained in a friendly against Australia, Christian Pulisic still qualifies for all leaderboards.
Even though he didn’t participate in AC Milan’s 1-0 victory over Lazio on Saturday, the injury has allowed Pulisic to maintain his position at the top of a unique statistical hierarchy that only a select group of people truly understand. He’s currently boasting an impressive average of 1.5 non-penalty goals+assists per 90 minutes, outpacing players like Erling Haaland, Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane, and Kylian Mbappé.
Among all players who have played at least a third of their team’s minutes across the Big Five leagues, Pulisic stands out as the most productive attacker.
Last year, USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino surprised many by labeling Pulisic as “one of the best offensive players in the world.” While it may be unrealistic to expect the 27-year-old to continue producing at an elite level for the remainder of the season, a swift recovery from his latest injury could see Pulisic fulfill the aspirations of USMNT fans who’ve been excited since his rise as a teenager.
The best American soccer player in history could be experiencing the best season of his career just as the U.S. prepares to host the 2026 World Cup.
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Why Pulisic Might Not Sustain This Performance
However, let’s temper our enthusiasm here.
In terms of raw totals, Pulisic falls short of Mbappe, Haaland, Kane, and even Yamal. He has netted five non-penalty goals and contributed two assists. Fifteen-plus players exceed his goal tally, and over 100 boast more assists.
Haaland leads with 14 non-penalty goals, with Mbappe and Kane trailing at 10 each. Meanwhile, Yamal is ahead in creating chances with seven assists.
The key difference lies in the minutes played: Mbappe and Haaland have both surpassed 1,000 minutes, Kane isn’t far behind, and Yamal has just 188 minutes more to catch up. Due to injuries, Pulisic has logged only 421 minutes, participated in eight Serie A matches, and has made just five starts. He has played the full 90 minutes in only one league match, which undoubtedly skews his per-90-minute statistics.
For instance, in a match against Udinese, he scored twice and assisted once but was substituted after 62 minutes, which boosts his numbers compared to if he had played the complete match without contributing further. More time on the pitch could yield additional goals and assists; however, the general trend across sports is that players tend to become less efficient with increased minutes.
Additionally, there’s an element of unpredictability when it comes to scoring. Pulisic’s assists align closely with the quality of chances he’s created, contributing two assists from 1.9 expected goals. Yet, he’s currently outperforming his expected goal rate, scoring five goals with only 2.2 expected goals.
Throughout his nine professional seasons, Pulisic has proven to be an average finisher among attackers. According to FBref, he has scored 53 goals from 50.9 expected goals (xG) since the 2017-18 season. Given that xG models account for all player shots, a slightly above-average conversion rate is seen as average for an attacker.
Thus, we should anticipate a decline in Pulisic’s goal-scoring efficiency. While he’s currently producing goals and assists at a rate of 1.5 per 90 minutes, his expected contribution sits at just over half that rate. After the first 3½ months of play, he averages 0.86 non-penalty expected goals and assists per 90 minutes.
Why Pulisic Might Still Be Having a Breakout Season
Now, let’s shift our focus back to the possibility of sustained success.
The aforementioned average of 0.86 non-penalty expected goals and assists would represent a career-high for Pulisic. Last season, only seven players managed to reach that mark across the Big Five leagues, and this season only eight players have done so so far—with Pulisic being one of them. If he maintains a slightly above-average finishing rate, we could project him to finish the season around 0.9 non-penalty goals+assists per 90 minutes—a genuinely elite performance.
Of course, for that to happen, he must stay healthy.
Since the 2017-18 season, Pulisic has averaged 12.5 missed games per season for club and country due to injuries, according to Transfermarkt data. However, since moving to Italy, he has appeared in only 14 games across his first two seasons—six in 2023-24 and eight in 2024-25. During his four seasons in the Premier League, he never missed fewer than 13 games in any season. Contributing factors include a slower tempo in Serie A, Pulisic’s learned strategy to avoid contact, and some degree of luck.
This season, he has already missed five matches. Based on his career average, he might skip around eight more games for the rest of the season. Using his Milan average, we’d expect him to miss around four more. As always, the actual outcome will likely fall between the two scenarios.
Should he find himself on the pitch consistently, what could still hinder his performance?
Pulisic’s key strength has always been his ability to infiltrate the box from the wing. Outside of his inaugural season in Milan and his final season at Chelsea, his xG per shot has never fallen below 0.14. (The Serie A average is 0.09.) Last season, he took an average of 1.9 shots per game—his lowest since leaving the Bundesliga—but compensated for that decrease by averaging 0.17 xG per shot.
This season, he has increased his attempts to nearly 2.4 shots per game, the second-highest of his career after his initial Chelsea season. Moreover, he has also improved his shot quality to 0.20 xG per shot.
This level of shot quality is typically characteristic of penalty-area strikers like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Robert Lewandowski, so it seems unlikely that Pulisic can sustain this level. A significant opportunity, similar to the goal he scored against Inter Milan, could greatly influence these statistics early in the season. Nevertheless, the main improvement for Pulisic this season has been his increased tendency to shoot, all without taking many low-quality long-range attempts.
In addition to his goal-scoring, nearly every other aspect of Pulisic’s play has seen improvement. His expected assists have risen to an all-time high, supported by three chances created per game, which would be a career best. He has already completed more through balls than he did throughout his entire first season in Italy.
Pulisic is making over two passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes, marking a first in his career. His 4.98 progressive passes per 90 would also set a new career high. He is successfully attempting more than five take-ons per game for the first time in six years, and he’s having over six touches in the box per 90 minutes for the first time in seven years.
While there’s a tendency to overlook how players can simply elevate their performance without specific systemic reasons, this isn’t the case for Pulisic. Despite playing under the defensively-minded Massimiliano Allegri, his fourth manager in three seasons, Pulisic has been allowed a more offensive role this season.
Gradient Sport monitors several physical metrics, including high-speed runs (between 20 and 25 kph) and sprints (over 25 mph). The data reveals that Pulisic’s output per 90 minutes in possession has not drastically shifted from last season. But here’s how it breaks down for every 90 minutes when Milan does not have possession:
2024-25: 108 high-speed runs, 19 sprints
2025-26: 76 high-speed runs, 10 sprints
Additionally, Pulisic has spent more time on his preferred side under Allegri, allowing him to cut inside onto his right foot more comfortably.
Last season, the majority of his touches were restricted to central or right areas:
Nevertheless, we’re only referencing five total starts here. He has taken 11 shots and generated just 14 shots for his teammates. Soccer players often have a few standout months, and though we are in November, these stats reflect merely about a month’s worth of playing time. You don’t need to be a top-tier player to compile stellar numbers over five starts.
Nonetheless, Pulisic’s performance cannot be dismissed as purely coincidental. Since the onset of the 2023-24 season, only Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martínez has recorded more non-penalty goals+assists in Serie A, and within the same period, only Martínez, teammate Marcus Thuram, Rafael Leão, and Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman have more expected goals+assists during that time frame.
It isn’t far-fetched to believe that Pulisic could sustain this level of performance for an entire season. Players often experience breakout campaigns, particularly during their prime years, where their production sees a noticeable spike. Currently, Pulisic is in the latter part of his peak years.
While further observation is essential to determine if this performance is genuine, if Pulisic were to have a standout season at 27, it might closely resemble what we’ve observed thus far: conserving energy when the team isn’t attacking and then tirelessly making runs into the box.