Could Pep Guardiola Spell…

Not long after Pep Guardiola lured Xabi Alonso from Real Madrid to become Bayern Munich‘s midfield leader in August 2014, the Catalan coach expressed his desire to help former players transition into coaching. He noted, “Johan Cruyff and others did that for me, and now it’s my obligation to pay it forward.”

Consequently, Alonso took a proactive approach to learning, rewriting the narrative at Bayer Leverkusen before emerging as the frontrunner to succeed Carlo Ancelotti at the Bernabéu, though his future seems increasingly precarious with each passing week.

Recent comments from Madrid’s beleaguered manager suggest that his time under Guardiola was pivotal. He reflected, “I was 32, with considerable experience, yet I learned so much in just a couple of years.”

This week will mark the first encounter between mentor and mentee, which is bittersweet given the current state of both squads. While Guardiola’s Manchester City loom as a formidable opponent following a string of recent successes, Madrid—particularly Alonso—find themselves in dire straits.

It’s difficult to imagine a worse lead-up to a crucial Champions League clash than winning just once in five league outings, conceding three careless goals to a lesser team like Olympiacos, suffering a lackluster defeat against Celta Vigo with three players sent off, enduring injuries like that of Éder Militão, and witnessing Barcelona flip a five-point deficit into a four-point advantage in just five matches.

Alonso’s position will only become more tenuous with another setback on Wednesday.

There’s little point in adding to the relentless rumors surrounding Alonso’s job security and the uninspired performances of his team. However, if I were club president Florentino Pérez, I’d back Alonso, support his efforts in squad reconstruction, and evaluate the situation after two seasons.

As Alonso acknowledged when questioned about his job, “I know where I am,” implying an awareness of the club’s expectations.

This means he operates in an environment where Pérez has little tolerance for anything less than dominance in Spain and Europe and often views coaching changes as viable solutions rather than fundamental issues. Under Pérez’s leadership, there have been 10 coaches who lasted from three months to a year.

Despite Guardiola’s stature, it would be unwise to assume that City will easily overpower Alonso’s Madrid, who traditionally handle City well with a strong home record and a penchant for dramatic victories.

Ironic too is the fact that during City’s last Champions League outing, they suffered a surprising home loss to the team that Alonso had successfully transformed into winners: Bayer Leverkusen.

This upcoming match shouldn’t be dismissed as an automatic City win. However, it’s hard to overlook the facts that could endanger Alonso’s current position, especially given Guardiola’s respectful mention of Alonso’s coaching potential.

At present, Madrid appears disjointed, erratic, and overly dependent on Kylian Mbappé (with only two wins in 21 matches when he doesn’t score). They seem more like a collection of individual moments than a cohesive team. Poor pressing, frequent injuries, and an unwelcoming Bernabéu pitch add to their woes, and if Thibaut Courtois has an off night, they could struggle significantly.

Even though Guardiola’s City may not be at their most formidable, he excels at pinpointing opponents’ vulnerabilities and devising strategies to exploit them. His methodology is well-drilled into his team: they know exactly how to secure victory.

Reflecting on his coaching education under Guardiola, Alonso noted earlier in the season, “In terms of understanding the game — understanding, explaining, and anticipating it — Pep was ahead of his time, and I believe he still is.”

A crucial point to consider when assessing Alonso’s situation is that while City poses a significant challenge, his own team is underperforming and appears to lack conviction.

When he played for Guardiola at Bayern, where they raised five trophies, Alonso remarked, “Pep controls all facets of football, but he convinces rather than imposes his philosophy on players.” This dynamic has shifted, as Alonso has found himself adapting and transforming strategies to accommodate his Madrid squad.

“Football today is incredibly demanding; it’s akin to a chess game with myriad pieces, boards, and contexts,” he said. “It’s imperative that your players share your vision. An excellent idea will fail to materialize if the team does not embrace it.”

From an outsider’s perspective, it seems some players struggle to grasp or implement their coach’s strategies.

Another parallel between Alonso and Guardiola is that when Guardiola assumed control at City, he was assured that the club would support a gradual squad overhaul—something they could not facilitate immediately. City’s management promised a 12-month period of patience, requiring Guardiola to return the favor in terms of results and performance.

This mutual agreement has proven fruitful; City has emerged as a dominant force in both English and European football. Such a culture of patience is absent at Madrid, which partly contributes to their continuous overachievement.

Guardiola, in his first year, was able to make bold moves, parting ways with prominent players like Ronaldinho and Deco, confident that this would benefit both the club and his position of authority. Unfortunately, Alonso does not enjoy the same conditions, as Madrid’s structure prioritizes the president’s interests, followed by those of the players, placing the coach third in line.

There’s also a “B plot” at play here: the clash of the world’s top two scorers, Mbappé and Erling Haaland, who meet for the fourth time, also serving as a prelude to their upcoming encounter during the France-vs.-Norway group-stage match at next summer’s FIFA World Cup.

Mbappé is eager to match Haaland by clinching a major tournament win, viewing Wednesday’s match as a vital moment to assert his prowess. Alonso, meanwhile, needs his star player to shine, helping to quell the swirling doubts around the club and potentially afford him much-needed time as Madrid seeks to regain form, consistency, and positive momentum.