-
Ryan O’Hanlon
Are attackers the most valuable players in soccer, or is it merely a perception shaped by our ability to quantify their contributions? The answer is as clear as it is complex.
With the introduction of expected goals (xG), it became apparent that elite goal-scorers excel because they repeatedly take high-quality shots. While finishing ability plays a role, the skill to consistently find or create space near the goal is the hallmark of the world’s top scorers.
From xG, we can evaluate the players who contribute these scoring opportunities through their assists. However, once we detach from the direct goal-scoring actions, we might fall into a mindset that undervalues contributions not resulting in goals.
Efforts to assess actions further from the goal often lead to the conclusion that those moments have little impact on scoring outcomes.
A deft maneuver by a midfielder in their half might require more skill than a forward clashing with a defender to score from a header, yet it’s the latter that counts on the scoreboard. And since goals win matches, while your brilliant midfield play may be noteworthy, it’s the hefty header that secures victory.
This perception seems both right and wrong. We understand the importance of midfielders from witnessing teams transform their gameplay through midfield changes. Yet, one midfielder rarely carries a game like a high-performing attacker can.
As tracking and movement data become more widespread, complex methodologies akin to those in particle physics, biomechanics, and aerospace science can enhance our understanding of player value.
Though that’s fascinating, I won’t delve into such specialties today. Instead, let’s examine a more straightforward metric: financial compensation. How do Premier League teams value players across positions based on salaries?
– Why Strasbourg’s role as Chelsea’s “farm team” matters
– Premier League Future Power Rankings: Projections for all 20 teams
– Ranking the top 50 women’s soccer players of 2025
Average Player Salaries in the Premier League
To understand player valuations, let’s dissect average Premier League salaries by position.
Using data from FBref, which includes both confirmed and estimated figures for broader accuracy, I decided to focus on players earning at least $500,000 annually. This results in a pool of 557 players: 145 forwards, 150 midfielders, 199 defenders, and 63 goalkeepers.
While we could delve deeper into player classifications, it tends to reduce sample sizes. Hence, we’re using FBref’s listed primary positions.
Here are average annual earnings for players in each position:
• Forwards: $5.27 million/year
• Midfielders: $5.31 million/year
• Defenders: $4.38 million/year
• Goalkeepers: $3.29 million/year
This indicates that forwards and midfielders are the most lucrative positions in the Premier League, with a clearer divide down to defenders and goalkeepers.
This intuition makes sense: forwards and midfielders share attributes, and given my cutoff, the minimal salary difference between them is negligible. It’s noteworthy that attacking midfielders like Phil Foden, Martin Ødegaard, and Florian Wirtz are categorized as midfielders, potentially inflating that group’s average value. As we move further from the goal, player salaries decrease.
Interestingly, it’s surprising that midfielders often match or surpass attackers in salary — a reversal of expectations. One theory is midfielders are more readily replaced, leading to a larger pool of valued midfielders, thus enhancing the overall average salary of their position.
Additionally, teams are primed to rely more heavily on seasoned midfielders, understanding that mistakes in that area have greater repercussions than those made by less experienced attackers, which may raise salaries for midfielders above those for forwards.
The Salaries of Starting Premier League Players
Moreover, defenders often remain on the pitch throughout matches, while teams typically rely on one consistent goalkeeper throughout a season. As a result, non-starters at these positions usually earn significantly less, lowering average salaries.
What happens if we consider only starters?
For this analysis, a “starter” will not be defined through match appearances but by player salaries. Given that formations like 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 dominate, we can categorize players based on salaries of the highest-paid. Thus, we define starters as follows: the 20 highest-paid goalkeepers, 80 highest-paid defenders, 60 highest-paid midfielders, and 60 highest-paid forwards.
Here are the results:
• Forwards: $9.53 million/year
• Midfielders: $9.30 million/year
• Defenders: $7.48 million/year
• Goalkeepers: $6.55 million/year
This translates to the salary increase required to transition from an average player to a starter in each position:
• Forwards: 80.6% increase
• Midfielders: 75.1% increase
• Defenders: 70.9% increase
• Goalkeepers: 99.3% increase
The disparity is logical. Since only one goalkeeper plays at a time, the earnings gap between starters and average players is striking. Starting forwards command significantly higher salaries than the average forward, reinforcing earlier observations. The salaries of starting midfielders are less drastically different from their average counterparts, as more midfielders take the field. Defenders generally have fewer who don’t start, resulting in smaller variations in earnings.
Moreover, a risk premium may come into play: teams favor reliable midfielders and defenders, anchoring their salaries.
Using the 4-3-3 formation as a reference, here’s the average annual salary for a starting unit in the Premier League:
• Goalkeeper: $6.55 million
• Defense: $29.9 million
• Midfield: $27.9 million
• Attack: $28.6 million
It’s noteworthy that the financial values of team units show minimal gaps overall. Adding goalkeepers to the defensive salary reveals that investments in “goal suppression” reach $36.5 million.
This investment strategy is interesting since defenders, particularly fullbacks, often contribute offensively as well. However, a more distinct trend appears to emerge.
Adjusting for the value that attacking midfielders bring, which largely revolves around offensive contributions, we may inflate the “attack” value while decreasing the midfield valuation. This would illustrate that investments by teams align with analytic findings: actions occurring near the goal — whether defending or attacking — are deemed most impactful.
Evaluating the Premium League Stars
The cost of securing a point increases significantly as teams vie for top spots. In simple terms, it’s far easier to progress from 44 to 45 points than it is from 89 to 90. But does this mean that the top teams allocate their spending similarly to others — merely at higher amounts across the same positional distributions?
Here, I define a “star” player as someone starting for one of the top four teams. Thus, considering our starter framework, we look at the four highest-paid goalkeepers, 16 defenders, 12 midfielders, and 12 forwards. Here’s what we find:
• Forwards: $18.7 million
• Midfielders: $15.7 million
• Defenders: $13.5 million
• Goalkeepers: $11.6 million
The premium required to transition from being a starter to star player varies by position:
• Forwards: 96.1% increase
• Midfielders: 69.2% increase
• Defenders: 80.8% increase
• Goalkeepers: 76.3% increase
To create a star-studded starting lineup, you’d invest approximately $11.6 million for your goalkeeper, $54 million on the defense, $47.1 million on the midfield, and $56 million on the attacking front.
The Premier League’s financial allocations present various insights. While midfielders are certainly valued, their overall contribution diminishes as team quality increases, suggesting their impact is more pronounced for lower-tier teams. As articulated by a friend, adding a strong midfielder to a struggling team can pivotal, akin to installing a new engine in a faulty vehicle. However, top teams demand standout features rather than fundamental components.
In contrast, the value of goalkeepers and defenders escalates with team success. This might stem from the necessity for individual brilliance in an organizational structure where even elite teams often stray from positional discipline. The cost of attackers seems consistently high, yet their value increases disproportionately at upper-tier teams, indicating a vast investment gap from average starters to star attackers.
Starting from our initial inquiry regarding midfielders versus attackers, the richest teams in the league provide clarity: star attackers hold a 20% superior value.