Forecasting the AFCON…

As the Africa Cup of Nations enters the Last 16, exciting matchups await, including Algeria vs DR Congo, and South Africa facing Cameroon.

Ahead of the matches, ESPN’s Ed Dove shares predictions for each Last 16 matchup, analyzing the factors that could lead to victory or defeat.

Saturday 4pm UK/6pm CAT

Senegal demonstrated their dominance during the group stage, overpowering Botswana and Benin. Their diverse attacking strategies should overpower Sudan.

However, the Falcons of Jediane pose a formidable challenge, having troubled Algeria in their opener despite conceding early from Riyad Mahrez. Their ability to be tough and well-organized, as seen against Equatorial Guinea, makes them a team to watch.

Nevertheless, Senegal’s midfield, led by Idrissa Gana Gueye and Pape Gueye, is likely to have the upper hand. With Sudan struggling to score during regular play, it’s difficult to envision them challenging Senegal beyond set pieces, especially given the Teranga Lions’ knockout stage experience and wealth of attacking talent.

Dove’s Prediction: Senegal advance

Saturday 7pm UK/9pm CAT

Tunisia enters their match against Mali with some pressure, having struggled in the group stage despite their storied AFCON history. Head coach Sami Trabelsi has called for a mental reset after their performances.

Although they were narrowly defeated 3-2 by Nigeria, Mali seemed to have potential, despite drawing all their group matches against Zambia and Comoros.

They displayed renewed vigor competing against hosts Morocco and were arguably unlucky not to have earned more than one penalty awarded during the contest.

Mali, known for their aggressive play – evidenced by 10 yellow cards and one red – will aim to recapture that energy against Tunisia.

Dove’s Prediction: Mali advance

Sunday 4pm UK/6pm CAT

Morocco emerges as the clear favorite in their Last 16 match, having impressed throughout the group stage, barring a second-half performance against Mali. With talents like Brahim Díaz and Ayoub El Kaabi leading a technically gifted team, they possess a more complete midfield than many others in the tournament.

The return of Achraf Hakimi for the match should further bolster their chances against Tanzania, who remarkably reached the knockouts without ever winning a Nations Cup match.

Despite advancing with just two points and a negative goal difference, Tanzania deserves recognition for their resilient defense that kept them in the tournament.

Dove’s Prediction: Morocco advance

South Africa vs Cameroon

Sunday 7pm UK/9pm CAT

This matchup proves challenging to predict, with Cameroon finishing second in Group F amid controversies. The Indomitable Lions haven’t always been flamboyant but Christian Kofane has shone, notably with a stunning strike against Mozambique.

South Africa has shown inconsistency, lacking composure against a weakened Egypt squad, which calls their ability to compete against a heavyweight like Cameroon into question.

Despite facing subpar competition in Zimbabwe and Angola, it’s uncertain how they will cope against a traditionally strong side, albeit a faltering one.

Oswin Appollis and Lyle Foster could disrupt Cameroon’s defense with six direct goal contributions combined. Additionally, Bafana Bafana may find motivation in their previous success and the influence of coach Hugo Broos, formerly at the helm of Cameroon.

Dove’s Prediction: Cameroon advance (narrowly)

Egypt vs Benin

Monday 4pm UK/6pm CAT

This match may not showcase the best football. Egypt has struggled throughout the tournament, despite spark from Omar Marmoush in their 2-1 win over Zimbabwe, and Mohamed Salah proving decisive in key moments.

The Pharaonic defense is unlikely to face significant threats from Benin, who managed to score only once during group play and managed three shots on target against Botswana.

While Benin marked a milestone by securing their first ever Nations Cup victory, chances of replicating their surprise Last 16 exit of Morocco from the previous tournament appear slim.

Dove’s Prediction: Egypt advance

Nigeria vs Mozambique

Monday 7pm UK/9pm CAT

The Super Eagles have been one of the standout teams this tournament, topping Group C without dropping a point.

With Ademola Lookman in impressive form, Victor Osimhen getting sharper, Alex Iwobi creating numerous scoring opportunities, and Samuel Chukwueze continuing his good form from Fulham, Nigeria stands as a formidable opponent for Mozambique.

Despite a matchday two win over a troubled Gabon, Mozambique must prove they can connect the dots with their talented players like Geny Catamo and Faizal Bangal to make significant headway against Nigeria’s sturdy backline.

Dove’s Prediction: Nigeria advance

Algeria vs DR Congo

Tuesday 4pm UK/6pm CAT

This matchup promises to be the highlight of the round. Algeria has impressed with a perfect record in the group stage, showcasing standout players like Riyad Mahrez, Ibrahim Maza, and Mohamed Amoura.

However, they will face a tough foe in the DRC, who enter the match buoyed by their unbeaten group stage and a successful World Cup qualifying campaign. Their effort to score against Botswana showed they are eager to avoid a showdown with Algeria.

The Central African squad possesses attacking talent in players like Cédric Bakambu, Théo Bongonda, and Gaël Kakuta, but Algeria’s cohesive play, enhanced by home support, gives them an advantage.

Dove’s Prediction: Algeria advance

Tuesday 7pm UK/9pm CAT

In a West African derby, Burkina Faso has historically reached at least the semifinals in three of the last five tournaments, so they cannot be underestimated against the defending champions.

However, the Ivory Coast has exhibited more quality, especially with Amad Diallo showing impressive form and riding the momentum from a comeback victory against Gabon.

Despite the Ivory Coast’s vulnerabilities, particularly in the opening minutes of matches, Burkina Faso must harness their talent to exploit such weaknesses, even while averaging 56 percent possession across their group matches.

Look for the Ivorians to maintain composure on the ball, while Burkina Faso could present a significant threat from set pieces.

Dove’s Prediction: Ivory Coast advance