The transfer window officially opened on New Year’s Day, and clubs across the Premier League are in the midst of a month-long rush to finalize any last-minute personnel changes. For those aiming for championship glory, it’s an opportunity to bolster their squads; conversely, teams fighting against relegation are keen to secure reinforcements to help secure their status in the league.
However, the focus extends beyond just player transfers. Clubs are now also assessing key players whose contracts are nearing their end. Whether due to free agency in the summer of 2026 or 2027, teams must act to extend contracts before other clubs come calling.
In this edition of Keep, Dump or Extend, our analysts Mark Ogden and Gab Marcotti delve into the challenges confronting Manchester City regarding contract renewals and potential transfers.
Manchester City: Keep, Dump or Extend?
• Current league position (as of Jan. 6): 2nd, 42 points (Last season’s finish: 3rd, 71 points)
• Objective: Pursue success in all four competitions (Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup)
1. What role would Antoine Semenyo have in the team if his £65 million transfer from Bournemouth is finalized?
Ogden: Signing Semenyo appears unusual given City’s wealth of attacking talent. He certainly is an exciting forward who can find the net, similar to Jérémy Doku, Savinho, Rayan Cherki, Omar Marmoush, and Phil Foden.
Semenyo has thrived in a Bournemouth side that capitalizes on counterattacks. In contrast, City often controls possession in opposing halves, which could limit his goal-scoring chances. Regardless, Semenyo’s proven ability to score would enhance Pep Guardiola’s tactical options.
Marcotti: While he’s not my personal first choice, I understand the rationale. Semenyo is a proven asset in the Premier League, a diligent player on the press, and can operate across the attacking line. Unlike Cherki, Doku, and Savinho, he contributes defensively. If City struggles stem partly from their forwards’ work rate, bringing Semenyo in could address some of those issues.
2. Phil Foden’s contract is set to expire at the end of the 2026-27 season. Should they move to extend?
Ogden: At 25, Foden is at the cusp of his prime. He is an elite player, consistently contributing both goals and assists at top levels, making a new contract a priority for City.
However, Foden’s own aspirations might complicate things. With Pep Guardiola’s future uncertain and having achieved extensive success at City, he might consider running down his contract for a fresh challenge as a free agent.
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Marcotti: I don’t see an immediate urgency for a new deal. Foden had a rocky season last year following a brilliant campaign two years ago. Before committing long-term, I’d want to see him regain form. Currently, competition for his signature doesn’t seem fierce enough to necessitate a quick decision.
While City should aim to finalize a new deal before summer, they have the luxury of waiting to see how things develop with Guardiola and the ongoing 115 charges against the club, both of which will influence their decision-making.
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3. Is Pep Guardiola’s future becoming a distracting issue?
Ogden: This feels like a recurring topic: Is this Pep’s final season? There have been multiple moments where it seemed he might leave, yet he has consistently signed new contracts.
Currently under contract until June 2027 and only 54 years old, there’s no compelling reason to assume this season will mark his departure. However, Guardiola is unpredictable; he could decide to step down at any moment.
Marcotti: Guardiola has the unique ability to choose his path, and Manchester City must accept that reality. He will leave on his own terms since contracts hold little weight for him.
Nonetheless, it’s wise for the club to have a succession strategy, focusing on potential profiles rather than specific individuals. Given both his propensity to lose interest and the ongoing 115 charges, the day he eventually departs could catch you off guard, and City needs to be ready.
4. Should City strengthen their squad in January with interest in players like Marc Guéhi and Elliot Anderson?
Ogden: Both players would enhance City’s squad immediately; Guéhi would strengthen the defense, while Anderson could alleviate concerns over Rodri’s future in midfield. Acquiring them in January could be sensible.
Guéhi appeared poised to let his Crystal Palace contract expire to enter free agency in the summer, but financial incentives could encourage a transfer. As for Anderson, Nottingham Forest would demand an exorbitant fee — approximately £100 million — to contemplate a midseason sale, making that scenario unlikely.
Marcotti: Strengthening the defense is essential, especially with Josko Gvardiol currently injured. Relying on John Stones‘ fitness is a gamble, and with both Nathan Aké and Aboukadir Khusanov revealing their limitations this season, pursuing Guéhi is a worthwhile endeavor. Though from his perspective, waiting until summer allows him to choose his destination and maximize financial gain.
If there’s a player that particularly stands out, pursuing them in January might be justified despite the transfer premium. Alternatively, you could explore bringing back a former central defender on loan. Manuel Akanji is excelling at Inter, which may complicate matters, but it’s worth investigating. Additional options include Juma Bah at Nice and Vitor Reis at Girona. Both are 19 and inexperienced but are gaining valuable playing time.
If Rodri remains fit, there’s no immediate need for additional midfield depth. Nico González is an adequate backup, and Mateo Kovacic is expected to return in February. While Anderson is a great option, the asking price is simply too high.
5. John Stones and Bernardo Silva will see their contracts expire this summer. Should they be retained or released?
Ogden: Stones has managed just 34 Premier League appearances since August 2023 and cannot be relied upon for consistent fitness. Offering him a new contract lacks rationale, despite him being only 31; City must think about the long-term.
In contrast, Bernardo has played 83 league matches in the same timeframe and has maintained his durability. I would recommend offering him a new contract, but he has suggested that he is leaning towards a departure, indicating a desire for a move in the summer.
Marcotti: The decision on Stones should hinge on the medical team’s input. He has started four of the 20 Premier League fixtures this season and was available as a substitute nine times, along with four starts in six Champions League matches. While he isn’t a guaranteed starter, his experience can still be invaluable when he is fit. If he’s open to a one-year extension for a reduced role, keeping him might be beneficial.
Regarding Bernardo, this is his ninth season with the club, and he’s frequently linked with moves away. As Pep has always said, if he wishes to remain, he’s welcomed; if he opts to leave, he has earned that right.