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Ryan O’Hanlon
We’re about halfway through the season!
The Premier League has reached the 21-game mark, slightly past the midpoint of a 38-game season. As the league takes a week off, every team has faced all others at least once. It’s the perfect moment to assess the various award races.
Most Premier League awards are based on statistics: Golden Boot for the most goals, Playmaker of the Year for the most assists, Golden Glove for the most saves, and yes, there’s also an award for “The Premier League Most Powerful Goal,” given to the player whose shot crosses the goal line with the most force.
However, four other “major” awards pique interest: goal of the season, young player of the season, manager of the season, and player of the season. Here’s my take on who should win each award if the season concluded today, along with my two runners-up.
Goal of the Season
It may seem like there have been fewer standout goals this season, primarily due to the decline in open-play strikes.
Scoring from a throw-in or a corner kick must meet high standards to earn a place on this list. While we might appreciate a well-placed volley from outside the box, teams are becoming increasingly strategic with set pieces, leading to reduced attempts at such spectacular goals. Unfortunately, the allure of many beautiful goals often stems from the improbability of their creation.
Simultaneously, there appears to be a slight resurgence of players unleashing shots from distance, perhaps due to more organized defenses and thus more space just outside the box. Is this shift due to frustration or greater freedom in attacking play?
Anyway, here are my top three picks for Goal of the Season.
3. Dominik Szoboszlai vs. Arsenal, Aug. 31
The Premier League’s headline for this goal was a memorable one: “Szoboszlai makes history with Guinness Goal of the Month award.” What kind of history did he achieve with this stunning free kick? Was it the hardest-hit dead ball of the decade? Is his goal the latest winning direct free-kick in a match between last season’s top two teams?
The “history” Szoboszlai made was being the first Hungarian to win a Premier League-held award, marking a significant day for Hungarian football.
This goal initially seemed crucial for Liverpool, marking their third consecutive victory. However, Arsenal now sits comfortably at the top, 14 points clear of Liverpool, who is currently fourth.
2. Harrison Reed vs. Liverpool, Jan. 4
Sometimes, when it’s not your season, it can feel like it’s really not your season.
Reed hadn’t scored in the Premier League since April 15, 2023, having netted only three goals in his entire career prior to this match. Set to turn 31 by the month’s end, he had only played eight minutes in the Premier League this season. His late appearance against Liverpool was prompted by multiple absences due to the Africa Cup of Nations.
If Reed refrains from taking another shot this season, he could potentially win the Premier League’s Goal of the Season award with this lone attempt.
1. Zian Flemming vs. Wolves, Oct. 26
This is my kind of goal: technically flawless, visually appealing, and strategically clever.
It may look straightforward—one player passes, another scores—but it wouldn’t happen without a perfectly executed 45-yard diagonal ball made under pressure. Flemming’s skill in recognizing the opportunity and moving away from the defender also played a crucial role.
What I appreciate most is the way this goal capitalizes on the sport’s complexity as a distraction. Wolves’ defenders were so fixated on potential passing options that they allowed too much time for the playmaker, leaving space for the attacker to exploit.
As the pass is made, all players converge on the ball—watch the video: both teams are pulled in the same direction, including Sam Johnstone, the Wolves goalkeeper. Consequently, Flemming manages to score thanks to the ball’s flight, causing it to spin in an unexpected manner and pulling Johnstone just out of reach.
Interestingly, the best goal of the season emerged from a match between the two lowest-ranked teams in the Premier League.
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Young Player of the Season
The rise of young talent in the Premier League coincides with the realization that players are peaking earlier than previously believed, combined with the league’s burgeoning financial dominance.
While I’ve highlighted three players, there are at least ten others who could easily qualify for this award, which recognizes the best players aged 23 or younger at the season’s start.
Jérémy Doku is thriving this year. Elliot Anderson could likely represent England at the World Cup. Ryan Gravenberch, last year’s winner, remains eligible. Other notable mentions include Michael Kayode—known for his unique throw-ins—and Moisés Caicedo, Florian Wirtz, and Josko Gvardiol. Riccardo Calafiori, Rayan Cherki, Cole Palmer, and Alejandro Garnacho are also in contention. However, Bukayo Saka is the clear favorite, provided he stays healthy throughout the season.
Yet, the selections for this award hinge solely on performance during the season’s first half. Here are the top three.
3. Adam Wharton, Midfielder, Crystal Palace
To clarify, Opta’s Expected Possession Value (xPV) measures how a player’s actions with the ball impact their team’s chances of scoring.
For example, while Liverpool’s Milos Kerkez is eligible for this award, he won’t receive it due to contributing a negative xPV this season. This negative trend is typical among forwards, who often lose possession or pass backward under high-pressure scenarios. Kerkez’s performance reflects this situation. In contrast, Wharton is excelling at Crystal Palace, ranking in the top 10 for both expected possession value from defensive contributions and open-play passing. At just 21 years old, he’s already one of the world’s top midfielders.
2. Hugo Ekitike, Forward, Liverpool
A straightforward method to assess a player’s value is to calculate their xPV and tally their non-penalty goals, which provides solid insight into their contributions.
Upon signing Ekitike, Liverpool acquired a unique center forward who could both score goals and create substantial value through their build-up play. Although he’s been navigating through a struggling team for most of the season, Ekitike, at just 23, is demonstrating his capabilities within the league’s competitive landscape.
Only two players under 23 have combined more than eight non-penalty goals with xPV, and Ekitike is one of them.
1. Morgan Rogers, Attacking Midfielder, Aston Villa
One reason Villa stands out this season—11 points clear of sixth place—is Rogers’ stunning performance. His shot map thus far reveals six goals from an expected 2.5 xG. While this level of conversion may not be sustainable, Rogers has consistently secured extra points for his team through low-probability opportunities.
Additionally, he excels in half-space, ranking second in the league for completed through balls, transforming patient possession into genuine threats. His overall value to the team surpasses that of any other young player in the league.
Manager of the Season
As we move to the managerial choices, it’s worth noting the last six Manager of the Month winners: Nuno Espirito Santo (Nottingham Forest), Vitor Pereira (Wolves), Arne Slot (Liverpool), Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace), Ruben Amorim (Manchester United), and Enzo Maresca (Chelsea).
Of these, four have since been dismissed, one is under significant scrutiny despite winning the Premier League, and the last is leading a team that has only secured one point in five matches against bottom-half teams.
This trend reflects a potential pattern: teams often outperform expectations due to luck or unsustainable tactics, leading to elevated expectations that may result in coaching changes when performance regresses.
Identifying managers who won’t experience this inevitable decline is challenging, but here are my three selections.
3. Daniel Farke, Leeds United
I recognize that this choice may not resonate with many readers, but hear me out. A manager’s primary control lies in the chances their team creates and concedes, while the actual conversion of those chances often hinges on external factors.
Currently sitting in 16th place, Leeds has a balanced xG differential, ranking 11th in the league. Despite a low budget—estimated as a bottom-three payroll—they’ve achieved results beyond their means. Unlike Burnley and Sunderland, Leeds demonstrated potential while operating with limited resources.
Moreover, Farke made tactical adjustments during the season that correlated with improvements in team performance. By season’s end, this choice may seem less unconventional.
2. Mikel Arteta, Arsenal
Arsenal currently stands as the league’s best team. Despite a hefty €63.5 million spent on a center forward whose performance has faltered (Viktor Gyökeres), their depth has muddled through injuries to key players without issue.
While it’s uncertain they will clinch the league even if their current form persists, they are favorites to win both the Premier League and the Champions League. Arteta deserves immense credit for his innovative style of play, leading a remarkably strong defense while also championing a flourishing offense.
His strategies that emphasize both possession and robust defensive setups make Arsenal a formidable opponent, maximizing set-piece opportunities like few teams have managed before.
1. Keith Andrews, Brentford
In any other context, Andrews would be my obvious top pick. Following the loss of their two star strikers and head coach Thomas Frank to Tottenham, Brentford has performed beyond expectations.
As they sit comfortably in fifth place with 17 games remaining, Brentford leads the league’s smallest wage bill while consistently competing in the upper echelons of team performance measurement. It’s remarkable how they adapt year-round without major losses impacting their performance negatively, reflecting the effectiveness of the managerial approach and team structure.
Player of the Season
This season, the decline in open-play scoring in the Premier League has correlated with a dip in individual performance among attackers. Strangely, only one player stands out as world-class this season, leaving room for defenders, midfielders, and even goalkeepers to vie for the Player of the Year title.
After careful evaluation, I narrowed it down to two players worthy of recognition, with a third included more symbolically.
3. Gabriel Magalhães, Center Back, Arsenal
My confidence in this selection has waned as I’ve begun to assess center backs similarly to how the NFL views offensive linemen—the repercussions of a mistake are immense, often overshadowing positive contributions.
Although Gabriel has made errors this season, he has also contributed with goals, totaling three in addition to two assists. His importance is paramount within Arsenal’s set-piece routine, and he’s a linchpin in one of the most formidable defenses in recent history. Arsenal’s goal conceded count is largely attributable to his presence in the lineup.
2. Declan Rice, Midfielder, Arsenal
Rice’s impact transcends statistics—observing him in action reveals his dominance. Some may even argue he’s the most physically imposing English midfielder in history. He covers expansive areas, commands ball control, and operates with an aggression reminiscent of NFL star Derrick Henry on the pitch.
When evaluating player similarities, Gradient Spots even suggests Rice mirrors PSG’s João Neves, another defensive midfielder. However, Rice’s higher physicality elevates his contributions significantly.
To substantiate his overall skill, Gradient Spots grades players weekly across key categories. Notably, Rice is the sole player who ranks above 75 in every major area of assessment.
1. Erling Haaland, Center Forward, Manchester City
Ultimately, goals are what secure victories, and leading the Golden Boot race, Haaland possesses double the number of goals than all but one of his competitors. His expected goals data is nearly double that of any other Premier League player.
Despite my brevity in writing about Haaland, it reinforces a crucial point: he may not contribute much outside scoring, but he excels at the one thing that matters most—scoring—and does so with exceptional skill.