Is Arbeloa the fortunate…

Just 236 days ago, Álvaro Arbeloa was at the helm of Real Madrid’s third-tier team, fresh off a U19 Cup semifinal loss to Valencia, and tied for points in the league with Atlético Madrid at 75. Not exactly the kind of achievement that usually leads a coach to the prestigious Bernabéu, especially when managing talents like Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham, right?

Aside from a few sideline skirmishes with Atlético’s youth coach, World Cup champion Fernando Torres, Arbeloa was relatively under the radar, rarely seen in media circles or mentioned as a candidate for the senior team. That changed dramatically when club icon Raúl González stepped down as coach of Real Madrid’s B team, prompting club president Florentino Pérez to elevate Arbeloa one rung up the ladder.

After stumbling to four losses in his initial five matches with Real Madrid Castilla, Arbeloa suffered a hefty 4-1 defeat to Arenas on Jan. 10, which set the stage for an evening spent viewing the Clásico Supercopa final. One might imagine this devout Madridista donned in Madrid pajamas and sporting accessories from the 2014 UEFA Champions League-winning season, but I digress.

Ultimately, chaos ensued: Xabi Alonso parted ways with the first team, and Arbeloa took over.

In a whirlwind few days in what is arguably the most sought-after coaching position in football, Arbeloa finds himself just one point off the league lead, with a chance to secure a top eight slot in the Champions League by defeating AS Monaco on Tuesday—thereby turning to his critics and saying, “Crisis? What crisis?”

It’s often attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, who cynically remarked, “I’d rather have lucky generals than good ones.” In light of the current precarious situation at Real Madrid, Pérez might ponder whether Arbeloa’s rise is a testament to his skills or sheer fortune.

For instance, Arbeloa’s coaching debut saw his team suffer an embarrassing Copa del Rey loss to second-division side Albacete, a performance that was impossible to spin positively, nor should anyone suggest there was intent behind Real Madrid’s sudden exit from a competition that typically promises a lucrative Supercopa spot for its winner.

Furthermore, Arbeloa’s insistence post-defeat that “I wouldn’t change any of my decisions” was received poorly; it came off as obstinate rather than principled, fuelled by the media’s low tolerance for failure.

However, it’s worth noting that being out of the Copa could paradoxically benefit this beleaguered Real Madrid team.

Despite criticism from media and fans, Arbeloa reinstated fitness coach Antonio Pintus, known for his rigorous training regimes.

Today, the trend is towards improving players’ fitness with finesse instead of through grueling drills, yet Pintus’s “kill or cure” method might be exactly what Real Madrid needs to address their energy deficiencies.

Many of their key players have endured remarkably short pre-seasons—hardly true training camps— and Madrid has not delivered a dominant 98-minute performance this season without mental and physical dips. The question remains whether forcing them through intense training in January is the right solution.

Then came Albacete.

Was it sound strategy for Arbeloa to leave out key players like Mbappé, Bellingham, Thibaut Courtois, and Aurélien Tchouaméni against potentially hungry opponents? Probably not. But…

Barcelona threw themselves into their cup tie before faltering in La Liga, while Madrid found their rhythm and won against Levante, narrowing the gap at the top to one point.

Moreover, Arbeloa’s players now have more time for training, recovery, and further demands from Pintus, potentially preparing them physically and mentally for coming trophy challenges as the season progresses.

If Madrid manages to clinch the title or lift another Champions League trophy in Budapest, sporting renewed energy and resilience, it’s likely that no one will lament the Albacete defeat. However, achieving success in the Champions League seems a tall order—only time will tell.

While possibly not evident generalship, Arbeloa may find fortune favors the brave. Early elimination has potentially opened doors.

The deafening whistles and jeers directed at certain players and Pérez during Madrid’s win over Levante were some of the loudest and most striking I’ve witnessed in nearly 24 years here in Spain.

Pérez, like any billionaire accustomed to winning, doesn’t take setbacks lightly, and public discontent can provoke profound and dangerous anger.

Once again, Arbeloa finds himself fortunate that the team which seemed evenly matched in the first half is now managing its second coach of the season and suffering from key player injuries. With a different opponent, the result may have been starkly different. But Arbeloa can simply shrug off such hypotheticals.

However, it should be noted that Arbeloa adeptly adopted the rhetoric often employed by politicians and powerful press representatives worldwide. When questioned about the boos and whistles clearly aimed at him and the board, he boldly suggested that those venting were not true Madridistas, indicating a greater orchestrated campaign against Pérez, playing right into his employer’s perspective.

A hint of good fortune might be on the horizon.

Monaco, experiencing their own coaching turmoil, recently lost a home match in Ligue 1 amid suffering injuries to critical players, making them appear as ideal opponents for Arbeloa’s entry into the Champions League. While respect for them is due, there’s a sense that Arbeloa could step into a hopeful situation. His and Madrid’s fates are still uncertain, but this budding coach might carve out a niche as a lucky leader.

Time will tell.