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Ryan O’Hanlon
The top four teams in the Premier League have competed in eight matches over the last two rounds. Any guesses on the total points they’ve collected?
It’s just six—meaning they’ve managed to gather only six points out of a possible 24, translating to a mere 0.75 points per game. For context, West Ham United has a slightly better record with a 0.77 points-per-game average, yet they sit in 18th place, with bookmakers estimating a greater than 50% chance of relegation.
The situation might be even more dire than it appears. Over these eight matches, teams like Arsenal, Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Liverpool have collectively failed to secure a single win. Conversely, teams such as Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, and Everton have combined for four victories and 14 points during the same period.
Looking beyond just the top four teams reveals an astounding fact: no Premier League team has won more than one match in the last two weeks. Extend that to three weeks, and the same holds true.
As I previously discussed, the Premier League is facing a contextual crisis; the level of offensive play is surprisingly low, yet the overall quality of the average team has never been higher. Fans across various clubs are frustrated as they watch their teams drop points to opponents they usually outplay.
In an effort to better understand the current Premier League landscape, we’re introducing a beloved 13-letter, two-word phrase: power rankings! Here’s the inaugural edition of ESPN’s Premier League Power Rankings, offering a clear view of the real strongest and weakest teams in the league.
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How the Premier League Power Rankings Work
First and foremost, don’t rely on this list for betting markets. Trust me, you’ll eventually be disappointed.
Now, let’s delve into the metrics that guide these rankings. The aim isn’t to produce the world’s most precise power rankings; rather, we want to offer something straightforward and intuitive that holds some predictive value. The insights arise from comparing these rankings against the table, analyzing discrepancies, and understanding their causes.
The metrics factored in include: a team’s non-penalty expected-goal differential, which serves as the best metric for forecasting future performance; estimated squad value from Transfermarkt, indicating the team’s talent level; and two additional metrics—passes allowed per defensive action in the attacking half, which measures pressing intensity, and pass completion percentage outside the attacking third, which indicates resistance to opposition pressure.
These rankings are derived using these four statistics, which are then converted into goal differential projections for an average match. Here’s how the rankings shake out:
Clearly, Arsenal stands out based on their underlying performance across 22 matches, boasting a stellar record and also excelling in the Champions League.
This team is undeniably among the best in the world at this moment:
Interestingly, Manchester City appears much closer to Arsenal in the power ratings than they do in the expected-goals metrics. The reason? City entered the season with one of the league’s most valuable squads and has consistently completed nearly 90% of their non-attacking third passes.
When a reporter directly inquires about potential managerial changes, it hints at underlying unrest within the club. Despite drawing their last four Premier League matches, Liverpool has remained one of the league’s top teams in recent games:
Much of the dissatisfaction stems from aesthetic critiques rather than tangible quality issues.
While Liverpool has created enough opportunities to win recent matches, fans are accustomed to Jürgen Klopp’s dynamic style of football, which is now absent under Arne Slot’s management.
Strangely, this season marks the first time I can say seven teams are pressing more effectively than Liverpool.
Despite an xG differential more closely aligned with Leeds than Liverpool, Chelsea’s rankings remain strong due to their talented roster and aggressive approach to pressing and possession, which have generally yielded good results.
We’ll see how this trend continues under new manager Liam Rosenior, who directed a 2-0 win over Brentford despite only holding less than 50% possession and managing just six shots.
0:31
Rosenior admits he has to ‘earn’ support from Chelsea fans
Liam Rosenior discusses Chelsea’s recent win against Pafos FC in the Champions League.
A recent victory over Manchester City was significant and notable, but it’s unclear how much we actually learned about Manchester United under Michael Carrick.
City approached the match with what seemed like a weakened defense, allowing United to exploit their vulnerabilities repeatedly. This game plan won’t be feasible in most upcoming matches, where opponents are likely to field stronger defensive lineups.
Nevertheless, the team showed potential under Ruben Amorim. Should Carrick maintain this trajectory, they could emerge as one of the top five teams in a league that may send five clubs to Champions League next season.
Newcastle’s strength over Manchester United in the rankings stems from their more controlled approach to possession, combined with similar performance quality and pressing intensity.
In contrast, Man United is achieving their lowest percentage of successful pre-final-third passes in nine seasons, while Eddie Howe’s team is completing a higher percentage of passes outside the attacking third than any year in that span.
Though Brighton hasn’t translated their style into results as expected, they are playing like a team that deserves more points: they boast the league’s lowest PPDA and an above-average completion rate on buildup passes. Theoretically, they possess a talented squad.
Though I remain skeptical, there’s room to argue that the Seagulls’ potential ceiling might exceed that of other teams outside the top six.
If the debate about the Premier League’s quality continues, take a look at the situation unfolding in North London.
Consider Tottenham’s recent performances against West Ham at home:
Their underlying league metrics are concerning— ranking 16th— yet they sit in fifth place and lead PSG by a point in the Champions League phase.
This reinforces the values embedded in the ratings.
A … win? A win?!?! This team is tied for second place and you’re suggesting this algorithm places them behind Brighton and Spurs while effectively rating them as the most average team in the league!
Here’s the counterargument: Power rankings are irrelevant if they merely mirror the standings. If you desire precise standings, just look them up! The goal is to uncover the underlying factors leading to victories and identify the teams likely to accumulate points moving forward.
That said, merely relying on xG would put this team down in 12th place, and Villa’s talented roster indicates they deserve better. Highlighting Unai Emery’s characteristic patient possession without pressing sheds light on why his teams generally surpass expected performance metrics season after season.
2:42
Why Aston Villa are ‘not title contenders’ after loss to Everton
Frank Leboeuf and Craig Burley analyze Aston Villa’s 1-0 defeat to Everton in the Premier League.
Sometimes, the metrics suggest Brentford is a superior team compared to Tottenham, yet if it came down to a direct match on neutral ground, I would likely favor Tottenham—at a significant risk to myself.
Brentford’s success has emerged through a playing style that’s been challenging to turn into consistent dominant performances.
Aside from points, they appear to be functioning as a slightly below-average team: pressing, passing, and producing chances akin to their peers, while lacking standout talent.
Of the six teams achieving less than 80% completion of non-attacking third passes, five rank among the league’s bottom six for pressing. This scenario commonly encompasses teams that sit back, absorb aggression, and then execute riskier passing plays. This approach dates back to a time when Scottish players realized passing among teammates wasn’t against the rules.
Bournemouth, though, breaks this mold, pressing vigorously while still operating as one of the league’s most successful cooldown teams, trailing only Brighton and Chelsea.
Marco Silva’s side earns points for their efficiency in buildup passes, completing a higher percentage than all but six teams, even if they are just below average in other metrics. He’s unlocking untapped potential in an older squad lacking high-end talent.
If this ranking had been established earlier, it would have anticipated Crystal Palace’s decline, although not the off-field turmoil that saw their captain transfer to a smaller fee and their manager announce his departure at season’s end.
The team’s initial success did not stem from effective control of the game or territory.
If a major club opts to hire Oliver Glasner, they must assess whether he can adapt his strategies to a superior squad with higher performance demands.
Currently sitting 16th, Palace is closer to mid-table than relegation danger. My campaign for “Daniel Farke for Manager of the Year” is gaining traction.
Much to my surprise, Everton stands in 10th place! Jack Grealish! Only three points shy of fifth! Recently defeated Aston Villa! And yet, this rating system places them near Wolves.
What’s the reason? Their xG differential ranks 16th best, and their playing style remains conservative with minimal pressing and ball control.
While I still consider Wolves among the league’s bottom three, their current position reflects their ability to press and control possession more than most teams fighting for relegation, despite their historically low point tally.
One reason a relegation battle seems unlikely is that the team in 18th actually ranks as the 18th best in the league.
Another factor is that a club with the second-worst xG differential (Sunderland) currently trails last season’s champions (Liverpool) by only two points.
To summarize Sunderland’s situation: they have a better shot at qualifying for the Champions League than relegation, though they will be regarded as relegation favorites next season.
Data analysts often refer to the so-called Messi test; player-value metrics were deemed credible if they positioned Lionel Messi at the top. For this ranking, my gauge was simple: as long as Burnley remained at the bottom, I knew the algorithm was functioning properly.