5 Reasons Why Premier…

As the UEFA Champions League playoff round kicks off this week, only one Premier League team remains in contention. Newcastle United is set to travel to Baku to face the reigning champions of Azerbaijan, Qarabag FK, this Wednesday.

For most, advancing to the playoff round is considered a notable achievement. Surprisingly, the defending champions of both the Eredivisie and Serie A were eliminated from the league phase, along with clubs from LaLiga, another Dutch side, a German team, and a French squad. Last year’s Champions League finalists, Inter Milan and Paris Saint-Germain, also had to vie for a playoff spot after falling short in the league phase. Joining them in the playoffs are leading teams such as Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, and Juventus.

The league phase primarily serves to prevent early exits—unless you’re part of the Premier League.

Arsenal topped the league phase of the Champions League, winning all eight of their matches. Following them in standings were Liverpool in third, Tottenham Hotspur in fourth, Chelsea in sixth, and Manchester City in eighth. The eight clubs that received a bye to the round of 16 are distributed as follows:

• Germany: 1
• Spain: 1
• Portugal: 1
• England: 5

Notably, four out of the five Premier League clubs that made it to the top eight averaged more points per game in the Champions League than in their domestic league. Currently, Liverpool ranks sixth in England but third in Europe, while Tottenham Hotspur, facing managerial changes and lingering near the relegation zone in England, secured fourth in the Champions League phase against some of the world’s best teams.

This disparity suggests that competing in the Champions League seems almost easier for English teams, and there are five key reasons why.

1. Premier League teams possess greater financial resources than most Champions League teams

Recently, Deloitte published their Money League, ranking the 30 wealthiest soccer clubs globally by revenue. The results show the presence of clubs from various countries:

• Portugal: 1
• France: 1
• Turkey: 2
• Spain: 3
• Italy: 4
• Germany: 4
• England: 15

The Premier League benefits from the most lucrative broadcasting deals, distributing revenue more evenly than any other major European league, leading to a stark contrast in financial power.

While revenue doesn’t guarantee success—West Ham United is an example of a club ranked lower in the Money League—over time, wealthier teams tend to perform better.

2. Premier League teams boast a higher talent pool compared to most Champions League sides

Reliable data on player wages is limited, but research indicates that Transfermarkt’s estimated squad values can serve as a strong proxy for player quality and team spending.

Among the top 25 teams evaluated globally:

• France: 1
• Portugal: 2
• Italy: 3
• Spain: 3
• Germany: 3
• England: 13

According to a previous analysis, in the 2014-15 season, the Big Six of the Premier League employed 29% of the world’s most valuable players, a figure that has remained consistent over the years while the rest of the league’s access to top talent has tripled to 18%.

Many of the world’s elite players are situated in the Premier League—but a significant number are not in the Champions League.

3. Premier League teams rank higher than most Champions League counterparts

The Club Elo ratings—dating back to the 1920s—measure team performance based on match results, awards, and penalties based on location and scores.

Current rankings show a significant presence of English teams in the top tier:

• France: 1
• Portugal: 2
• Spain: 3
• Germany: 3
• Italy: 4
• England: 12

While these ratings assess past performances, betting markets can project future team strengths. According to PitchRank, more than half of the premier teams currently hold better ratings than other Champions League teams.

4. Premier League clubs generally encounter less challenging schedules than others in the Champions League

Using the Club Elo ratings as a guide to estimate team strength, Premier League sides rank impressively compared to their Champions League competitors:

• Arsenal: 1st
• Manchester City: 2nd
• Liverpool: 5th
• Chelsea: 8th
• Newcastle: 10th
• Tottenham: 16th

Under UEFA regulations, teams from the same country cannot face each other during the league phase. Consequently, clubs like Tottenham benefit from a more favorable draw, as evidenced by Opta’s strength-of-schedule ratings, which indicate that Spurs had the easiest matchups among all teams.

While some Premier League teams may face tough draws—like Newcastle’s challenging path—on average, they typically navigate easier groups compared to other prominent leagues.

5. The Premier League presents a more physically taxing environment than the Champions League

Before Newcastle’s final league match against PSG, Anthony Gordon articulated the contrast between playing in the Premier League versus the Champions League, stating that the latter is characterized by more open, football-centric play compared to the more physically demanding and relentless nature of the Premier League.

Metrics clearly demonstrate this trend. In the previous Premier League season, the average match saw 1.22 long throws, while this year that figure surged to 3.59 long throws, indicating a significant shift towards physical play. Additionally, teams are contributing to a notable rise in aerial duels, with Premier League teams attempting an average of 110 aerial challenges per game compared to 77.3 in the Champions League.

Last season, teams in the Champions League weren’t as dominant in set piece situations as Premier League clubs. Liverpool, for instance, exhibited strong set piece performance in the Champions League but struggled within the Premier League context, underscoring the differences in play styles across competitions.

These financial and tactical dynamics in soccer have intensified existing disparities between leading clubs in top leagues. Premier League teams now boast a combination of physicality, tactical prowess, superior financial backing, and more lenient scheduling, puzzlingly allowing five of them to automatically qualify for the Round of 16.

And regarding the one team remaining in the playoffs? The set piece metrics indicate that Newcastle ranks among the top alongside Liverpool, Arsenal, and Chelsea, while Qarabag sits at the bottom of the rankings. We can anticipate continuing results that mirror previous match outcomes.