With four World Cup titles, ranking second in FIFA history, Italy possesses a rich legacy in international soccer. Their longstanding tradition, prestigious reputation, and talented roster help explain why the Azzurri are currently listed at 30-1 odds to win the 2026 World Cup, placing them tied for the 10th-best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
However, there’s a significant catch: Italy has not yet secured qualification for the World Cup.
After failing to qualify directly for three consecutive cycles, Italy must defeat Northern Ireland on Thursday and then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina on March 31 to advance into the main draw through the UEFA playoffs.
Italy is currently a -350 favorite in the three-way moneyline against Northern Ireland and holds -175 odds to qualify overall. Yet, given that the Azzurri have missed the World Cup from this position in their last two attempts, one must question how sportsbooks justify placing them in the same odds category as teams like Colombia (40-1), Belgium (30-1), and Norway (25-1), all of whom contributed to Italy’s current scenario.
“They’re an interesting case. On paper, they still field a very strong squad and rank among the top teams heading into the World Cup. With [Gennaro] Gattuso as their capable manager, they certainly have a solid foundation,” remarked Mark Bickerdike, Caesars Sportsbook soccer lead, in an interview with ESPN. “However, their recent World Cup track record has been troubled. They’ve failed to qualify in the last two tournaments and did not advance past the group stage in 2010 and 2014. Hence, their recent history is somewhat checkered following their win in 2006.”
Despite this, Bickerdike emphasized that Italy’s positioning is primarily based on the current roster’s quality. BetMGM’s trading manager, Seamus Magee, echoed this sentiment in an email, stating, “I believe they’re a top-15 team globally, which is reflected in their odds.”
Bickerdike elaborated on Caesars’ methodology for determining World Cup futures, explaining that they begin with their favorite, Spain, and simulate match scenarios against all competing teams. In these simulations, Italy is rated as “three-quarters of a goal weaker than Spain.” This process continues through tournament simulations, calculating each team’s probabilities of winning and other outcomes.
He stressed that they aim to remain rooted in data rather than get carried away by Italy’s global popularity. With the 2026 World Cup set to feature an unprecedented number of teams, it’s essential to establish accurate pricing without being influenced by non-quantifiable factors.
This underscores that Italy’s position among the top 10 in World Cup odds hinges on bookmakers’ assessment of their tournament potential, even with the caveat of needing to first qualify.
Betting activity also aligns with how sportsbooks view Italy. Both Caesars and DraftKings report that the Azzurri have received the 12th most bets to win the World Cup, while BetMGM places them ninth in terms of both wagers and total handle. Johnny Avello, director of DraftKings Sportsbook, anticipates heightened interest in Italy, contingent upon their qualification for the tournament.
Bickerdike noted that while some action could lead to shorter odds for Italy, he expects even greater interest in Spain (+450 at DraftKings), France (+550), Portugal (11-1), and the United States (65-1) playing on home soil.