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Ryan O’Hanlon
Multiple Authors
Since October, we’ve been discussing a significant trend in the Premier League, which continues to make headlines every weekend: this season, the Premier League underwent a major transformation, almost instantaneously.
While it might be tempting to frame the increase in set-piece goals as part of the cyclical nature of tactics in a sport that often thrives on unpredictability, the situation we find ourselves in this season feels markedly different. At the same point during the previous two seasons, teams had accrued 798 and 737 goals from open play and penalties combined, averaging about 768 goals after 31 matches.
This season, however, that tally has dropped to just 615—a staggering 20% decline. Compared to last season directly, it represents a 23% reduction. This isn’t a simple ebb and flow; it’s more akin to a tidal wave.
In the midst of this tactical upheaval, Arsenal has emerged as a team worthy of the title. They established a strong appreciation for the significance of set-piece goals earlier than most and are leveraging that advantage to potentially claim their first title in over 20 years. The Gunners have tallied 21 goals from set pieces while only conceding eight—resulting in a remarkable differential of plus-13, which dwarfs the second-best team, Manchester United, whose differential stands at plus-six.
As the battle for the Premier League title nears its climax, let’s embark on a thought experiment together. Picture an alien, obsessed with soccer, who grows tired of the endless long throw-ins and defensive walls. This being not only enjoys high-energy, attacking football à la Hansi Flick but also has the power to manipulate time non-linearly. It snaps its tentacles (or whatever appendages it has) and wipes all set-piece goals from existence.
What would the Premier League season look like without set plays? What might the future hold? To unravel these questions, I meticulously removed all goals from free kicks, corner kicks, and throw-ins from the statistical records for this season, recalibrating the outcomes of every Premier League match accordingly.
Let’s explore how the Premier League standings and narrative might change without set-piece goals.
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Weeks 1-5: Liverpool Poised for a Repeat
Following a substantial summer spending spree, Liverpool appears to be reaping the rewards. The reigning champions hold a three-point lead at the top of the table, boasting the highest goal tally in the league.
After an exhilarating opening day win over Bournemouth, Liverpool seemed to return to their previous form with a 3-0 victory against Newcastle at St. James’s Park. Their only slip during the first five matches was a goalless draw at home against Arsenal.
Arsenal’s matches often result in ties, raising concerns that Mikel Arteta might be becoming the modern-day José Mourinho—a manager who’s structured enough to avoid losses but struggles to convert draws into victories that secure titles.
At this early stage, the Gunners, who also underwent a considerable spending spree, have conceded only a single goal and scored five, netting two wins and three draws, placing them sixth—four points off the leaders.
Premier League Top Five:
1st: Liverpool: 13 points, plus-7 goal differential
2nd: Tottenham: 10 points, plus-5 GD
3rd: Chelsea: 10 points, plus-2 GD
4th: Sunderland: 10 points, plus-2 GD
5th: Bournemouth: 10 points, plus-1 GD
Biggest beneficiaries in a set-piece-free environment: Chelsea, Sunderland, Brighton, and Burnley have gained two additional points
Most affected: Everton has lost two points
Weeks 6-10: Manchester City Makes a Comeback
After overhauling at least half their roster during the last two transfer windows, Manchester City finally appears to be regaining their former strength, leading the league with a plus-14 goal differential.
Following initial setbacks with losses to Brighton and Tottenham, they have remained unbeaten in their next seven matches, recording five wins and two draws—one at Arsenal and another at Aston Villa. They are now just one point behind league leaders Liverpool.
Even after losing their season opener to a last-minute goal at Stamford Bridge, Liverpool managed to secure a tough 1-0 victory against Crystal Palace, despite draws against Manchester United at Anfield and a 2-2 tie with Brentford in London.
With tough matches behind them against Newcastle, Chelsea, and upcoming fixtures with Arsenal and Manchester United, Liverpool now faces Manchester City in a significant clash.
Arsenal has climbed to fourth, trailing Liverpool by three points while remaining undefeated and conceding just one goal through 10 matches, displaying potential as one of the best defensive teams in recent memory. Unfortunately, their scoring remains an issue with only eight goals—the fifth fewest in the league.
Premier League Top Five:
1st: Liverpool: 21 points, plus-9 GD
2nd: Manchester City: 20 points, plus-14 GD
3rd: Tottenham: 19 points, plus-5 GD
4th: Arsenal: 18 points, plus-7 GD
5th: Chelsea: 18 points, plus-3 GD
Most beneficial teams: Liverpool, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest all gained three points
Most affected: Arsenal lost seven points during this period
Weeks 11-15: Arsenal Not Out of the Race Yet
Is Liverpool starting to slump? Following a scoreless draw against Real Madrid at home in the Champions League, they entered their match with Manchester City having gone 45 minutes without scoring.
This season was supposed to showcase a high-octane, dynamic attack filled with the summer signings, but some are beginning to question if manager Arne Slot can maintain the momentum of the previous regime led by Jurgen Klopp. Can Slot inspire the same dazzling offensive plays?
City triumphed 2-0, capitalizing on long-range strikes from Nico Gonzalez and Jérémy Doku. While experts attribute the outcome to bad luck with unconventional goals, Liverpool’s woes continued with a disappointing 1-0 home loss to Nottingham Forest, marking three consecutive games without a goal.
Eventually, Liverpool returned to form with a thrilling 3-2 victory over Leeds, yet this left us with 15 matches played and record-signing Alexander Isak still goalless.
Meanwhile, Arsenal extended their unbeaten streak to 14 matches, securing victories over Sunderland and Chelsea, though they were briefly atop the table before a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa sent them back down to second.
Despite a loss to Newcastle, City has regained their winning form. However, concerns are rising over Manchester United’s struggles under Amorim, as the club lingered in the lower half of the table with just 21 points through 15 matches.
After suffering a loss to Crystal Palace, a controversial suggestion circulated that the Glazer family should reclaim control of the club from Jim Ratcliffe, igniting debates among past players and pundits.
Premier League Top Five:
1st: Manchester City: 32 points, plus-20 GD
2nd: Arsenal: 30 points, plus-13 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 28 points, plus-8 GD
4th: Chelsea: 25 points, plus-6 GD
T-5th: Aston Villa and Crystal Palace: 25 points, plus-5 GD
Most beneficial teams: Burnley secured six more points, while Liverpool gained five
Most affected: Everton and Aston Villa dropped five points
Weeks 16-20: A Three-Horse Race
A 1-1 draw against Wolves at home, who had only accrued six points through 20 matches, typically signals the end of a title campaign. Following that with a similar result against Brighton raises doubts about Arsenal’s mental resolve in pursuing major trophies. However, the Gunners countered with a decisive 3-1 victory over Aston Villa, while City faced three consecutive draws: away to Forest and Sunderland, plus a home tie against Chelsea.
Liverpool has performed admirably, winning four of their last five matches. In one memorable game against Fulham, Harrison Reed scored a stunning goal—though it was a mere consolation in a match won 2-0 by Liverpool.
After 20 matches, a three-way tie for first place emerges, promising one of the most thrilling title races in recent memory.
Struggling teams near the bottom, including Sunderland, face challenges to avoid relegation as they teeter on the brink, with Burnley sticking just above the drop zone.
Premier League Top Five:
1st: Manchester City: 41 points, plus-26 GD
2nd: Arsenal: 41 points, plus-17 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 41 points, plus-14 GD
4th: Aston Villa: 37 points, plus-8 GD
5th: Chelsea: 33 points, plus-9 GD
Most beneficial teams: Burnley acquired eight more points, along with Liverpool and Bournemouth gaining seven
Most affected: Arsenal and Sunderland diminished seven points
Weeks 21-25: Managerial Changes at Chelsea and Man United
Chelsea’s ownership, led by Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, sought to part ways with Enzo Maresca following the Bournemouth match. However, they delayed the decision until after a commendable draw against Manchester City and a disappointing defeat to Fulham. Eventually, they appointed Liam Rosenior, formerly of Strasbourg, to lead Chelsea.
Rosenior’s management style has garnered skepticism, but in his first four matches, Chelsea flourished, scoring 11 goals and allowing just one, closing in on first place and trailing Liverpool by only a point.
Meanwhile, at Manchester United, Amorim departed to make way for Michael Carrick, who briefly lifted the team’s fortunes with early wins over City and Arsenal but faltered thereafter, resulting in a 2-2 draw against Fulham and an uninspiring 1-0 victory against a struggling Tottenham. With United now in ninth place, Carrick’s position seems more caretaker than permanent.
Premier League Top Five:
1st: Manchester City: 49 points, plus-28 GD
2nd: Arsenal: 49 points, plus-20 GD
3rd: Liverpool: 46 points, plus-12 GD
4th: Chelsea: 45 points, plus-16 GD
5th: Aston Villa: 42 points, plus-7 GD
Biggest beneficiaries: Burnley gained eight points, while Liverpool and Bournemouth netted seven, and Crystal Palace accrued six
Most affected: Everton lost eight points; Arsenal, Manchester United, and Sunderland lost seven
Weeks 26-31: Seizing Control
At the bottom of the table, Burnley and West Ham are level on 28 points, with Burnley holding 18th place due to superior goal difference. Unbelievably, Tottenham sits in 17th, just three points ahead of the relegation zone following a narrow 1-0 win at Anfield. Meanwhile, Leeds remain precariously close to the danger zone, having scored no goals in five matches.
The competition remains fierce, particularly in the race for Champions League qualification. The insertion of a fifth slot has intensified rivalries, with a clear top four forming: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea—all boasting double-digit positive goal differentials.
Yet lower down, a two-point gap separates fifth from eighth place, creating a dynamic landscape. Andoni Iraola is the talk of the town, managing Bournemouth into fifth despite losing substantial defensive talent over the summer and their top forward, Antoine Semenyo, to City in January.
The most recent match against Manchester United was viewed as a pivotal confrontation, with Bournemouth gaining ground that led many to speculate about Iraola’s potential as a serious candidate for future top-tier managerial positions.
Crystal Palace, now eighth, faces its own struggles maintaining form following captain Marc Guéhi‘s departure to City in January. Despite this, they still have a game in hand, roughly aligning their trajectory with the teams directly ahead.
Chelsea remains in third, while Liverpool holds fourth, both navigating seasons whose narratives have been curiously muted amid exuberant expectations.
City sits confidently at the top with 61 points after 30 games, having systematically weakened their rivals in the transfer market by acquiring key players mid-season. They seem poised to claim the league if they continue their winning ways.
Arsenal, incredibly resilient with only 14 goals conceded, have found their scoring pace lately, notching 40 goals thus far, just behind City’s 53 but more than Liverpool and Chelsea. They maintain a slight lead at the top, but with City breathing down their neck, they need to secure victories in their remaining games to achieve title glory.
City’s next few fixtures include a FA Cup clash with Liverpool, a league match away against Chelsea, and a much-anticipated visit to Arsenal on April 19. This could essentially serve as the league’s championship match.
Premier League Top Five:
1st: Arsenal: 63 points, plus-26 GD
2nd: Manchester City: 61 points, plus-34 GD
3rd: Chelsea: 53 points, plus-16 GD
4th: Liverpool: 52 points, plus-11 GD
5th: Bournemouth: 48 points, plus-2 GD
Biggest beneficiaries: Burnley gained eight points; Palace seven; Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest six
Most affected: Everton lost nine points; United and Villa lost eight; Arsenal lost seven
Additionally, teams in second, tenth, and twentieth place—Manchester City, Brighton, and Wolves—would retain identical points, even in a scenario devoid of set-piece contributions.