The UEFA Women’s Champions League semifinals kick off on Saturday, as the final four teams compete for a spot in the championship match in Oslo on May 23.
The matchups feature defending champions Arsenal going head-to-head with eight-time winners OL Lyonnes, and last year’s finalists Barcelona taking on German powerhouse Bayern Munich. Having faced off earlier in the season, the stakes are now significantly raised. How will these matches unfold over the two legs?
What’s Different for Arsenal and OL Lyonnes in Their Familiar Encounter?
The two squads last met in the previous season’s semifinal, where Arsenal triumphed 5-3 on aggregate. A lot has changed behind the scenes since then, though both teams are relatively injury-free this time around. Their initial league meeting this season (which concluded with a 2-1 victory for Lyonnes) showcased a tactical resemblance to the previous campaign.
Last season, Arsenal reversed a 2-1 defeat from the first leg with a commanding 4-1 win in the return match, a trend they continued against Real Madrid. This season, however, the underdog narrative is less persuasive.
After a dominant 7-1 aggregate win against OH Leuven and a solid 3-2 result against rivals Chelsea, Arsenal exhibits a newfound confidence and expectation. This shift in expectations is a critical factor.
As the defending champions, Arsenal finds themselves in the position of being the target, rather than the pursuers. Every opponent is now measuring themselves against Arsenal, reshaping the pressure and obligation on the London club.
Lyonnes has also seen changes its structure under coach Jonatan Giráldez, enhancing their tactical approach. While they have shown vulnerabilities against organized teams, their attacking prowess remains formidable.
Despite their storied history of eight titles, Lyonnes hasn’t won the trophy since 2022. The past few seasons have revealed a team striving to reclaim their dominance while sometimes struggling to keep pace with rising standards in the competition. Thus, this semifinal carries significant implications; Lyonnes aim to demonstrate their era of excellence isn’t over, while Arsenal is determined to prove their title win wasn’t a fluke. — Emily Keogh
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Krieger: Arsenal can beat OL Lyonnes in UWCL without Williamson
Ali Krieger shares her thoughts on the upcoming semifinal between Arsenal and OL Lyonnes.
Does Being Defending Champions Matter for Arsenal?
Arsenal’s performance in their quarterfinals against Chelsea showcased their experience in navigating tight European encounters. They capitalized on their chances, maintained defensive solidity, enjoyed some luck, and had an impressive goalkeeper.
Leading the attack was Alessia Russo, but the win was primarily attributed to their midfield stars: Mariana Caldentey and Kim Little, who expertly managed the game with their wealth of experience. Even in the absence of captain and key defender Leah Williamson, Arsenal remained composed and displayed the mindset that led them to last year’s UWCL title. That kind of experience can be invaluable at this stage of the tournament.
While Lyonnes and Barcelona may be considered stronger overall based on recent form, Arsenal’s title-winning status gives them a psychological advantage that cannot be underestimated — a priceless element often lost in quantifying sports performance.
To retain their title, Arsenal will likely need to defeat the strongest teams in the competition, but they have previously shocked Europe and know how to replicate that magic. — Tom Hamilton
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Will Bayern learn their lesson from Barcelona’s 7-1 demolition?
Lianne Sanderson and Ali Krieger preview the upcoming matchup between Bayern and Barcelona in the Women’s Champions League semifinals.
Interestingly enough, Barcelona has navigated various challenges this season, showcasing the depth of their squad despite missing some key players. The absences of Patri from October through January and Bonmatí — who is nearing a return from injury — have been mitigated by the emergence of young talents such as Clara Serrajordi and Vicky López. Their big games start now, so ensuring key players are fit for the semifinals and potentially the final is crucial.
Patri should be firing on all cylinders despite a recent minor injury, while Bonmatí might initially have to fit in as a secondary option as she makes her comeback. However, they are both determined to make their presence felt. Regardless, Barcelona is equipped to handle absences with their roster featuring stars like Alexia Putellas, Caroline Graham Hansen, and Ewa Pajor. — Sam Marsden
Can Bayern Munich Figure Out How to Contain Barcelona?
Barcelona’s last encounter with Bayern ended in a 7-0 victory, underlining their strength this season. Although Bayern fell short in last year’s final, they seem invigorated and remain a top contender in the tournament. Nevertheless, they are not invincible, as Arsenal previously illustrated.
The victory in Lisbon was built on a mix of confidence and tactical sharpness; adjusting Caitlin Foord into midfield created valuable overloads to disrupt Barcelona’s plans, while Stina Blackstenius capitalized on the opportunities created. The performance was a testament to discipline and precise execution.
For Bayern to mirror such a performance will require near perfection. With little room for error against Barcelona and under a relatively inexperienced coach in Jose Barcala, the challenge looms large. Defensive lapses, a recurring issue for Bayern this season, will be exploited, and their attack must find consistency.
To maximize their chances, Bayern’s best strategy may be to minimize damage in the first leg, adopting a defensive stance before counter-attacking rather than matching Barcelona’s possession-heavy style. If they can remain competitive heading into the second leg, they could push the three-time winners to their limits. — Keogh
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Graham Hansen: Barcelona is focused on winning the UWCL
Caroline Graham Hansen discusses Barcelona’s preparation for their semifinal against Bayern Munich.
What Are the Predictions?
Keogh: I foresee a repeat of the 2023 final between OL Lyonnes and Barcelona this time in Oslo. The matchup between OL Lyonnes and Arsenal is challenging to predict; with five remaining WSL games and various injuries to manage, Arsenal may not prevail over two legs. Lyonnes’ determination appears substantial, and coach Giráldez will ensure Arsenal faces their best form to secure anything from this encounter.
Additionally, although I’m drawn to underdog stories, I doubt Bayern’s ability to overcome Barcelona.
Hamilton: I’ve consistently believed in OL Lyonnes as favorites to win the tournament, yet I anticipate a final featuring Arsenal and Barcelona. Lyonnes have dominated several matches but have been wasteful in their finishing. Arsenal has shown ruthlessness in their previous outings and benefit from the momentum of being the defending champions.
Their tie against Lyonnes is tightly matched, probably around 50-50, but I lean toward Arsenal advancing. Meanwhile, Barcelona’s earlier 7-1 thrashing of Bayern will not likely repeat, but they remain the clear favorites for that matchup.
Marsden: While Barça likely won’t repeat their prior 7-0 blowout against Bayern, I believe they will still prevail over two legs. If the tie is close heading into the second match, a crowd of over 60,000 at Spotify Camp Nou should provide the necessary support for another victory.
Regarding the other semifinal, although there are signs of unexpected vulnerabilities in Lyonnes, their squad depth should enable coach Giráldez to secure a final appearance against his former team.