What If Liverpool Never…

Depending on the extent of his hamstring injury, Mohamed Salah may have played in between his most recent match and his fifth-from-last appearance for Liverpool.

If you had to name one player who embodies the modern era of Liverpool, it would undoubtedly be Salah. He has been a constant presence since his arrival from Roma in the 2017-18 season. The Egyptian winger has logged 26,124 minutes in the Premier League, ranking only behind Everton‘s goalkeeper Jordan Pickford and teammate James Tarkowski. Among forwards, the next closest player is Son Heung-Min, who trails Salah by over 5,000 minutes.

Salah’s goal contributions are staggering, boasting 191 goals and 92 assists since 2017-18, leading all players in that timeframe. His total of 283 goal involvements is 100 more than Son’s second-best tally of 183. On average, Salah has contributed 31 goals or assists each season over his nine years in the Premier League, a feat matched by only seven other players during that time.

Imagining modern soccer without Salah is difficult, and the same goes for Liverpool without him.

However, let’s consider what might have happened if things had gone differently.

Rumors had circulated for years that Liverpool almost passed on signing Salah. Jürgen Klopp favored Borussia Dortmund‘s Julian Brandt, yet the analytical team was convinced Salah would become a future star. This decision ultimately illustrates why Liverpool enjoyed such success in the years that followed.

Klopp, a renowned figure in soccer, advocated for his former club’s young talent. Typically, such moves are standard protocol, but Klopp opted to heed the insights of analysts—individuals without professional playing experience—debating the merits of the choice. In the end, he acknowledged their expertise, and the result was a club that won everything, fueled by Salah’s extraordinary contributions.

What if Klopp had stuck to his original preference, or if Salah had declined a return to England? Influenced by a similar alternative history piece from my colleague Zack Kram, here are 11 significant differences that might have emerged in this alternate reality.

1. Coutinho remains at Liverpool

The vision was to expand Liverpool’s attacking potency with the quartet of Salah, Sadio Mané, Roberto Firmino, and Philippe Coutinho. However, following Paris Saint-Germain‘s record-setting acquisition of Neymar, Barcelona suddenly had over $200 million at their disposal and subsequently pursued Coutinho, eventually signing him for $160 million in the mid-season of 2017-18. Liverpool was comfortable with the transaction as Salah had swiftly transitioned into a starlit role upon his arrival.

In our alternate scenario, Brandt joined Liverpool but proved to be… adequate. He emerged as a younger parallel to Adam Lallana—a versatile squad player lacking the immediate impact Liverpool required to replace Coutinho’s goal output. Thus, the loss of Coutinho was untenable; an attack reliant on Mane, Firmino, and Brandt simply couldn’t muster enough goals.

2. Barcelona acquires Timo Werner and triumphs in the 2018 Champions League

In an effort to recover from missing out on Coutinho, Barcelona would eventually settle on signing Timo Werner from RB Leipzig, forgoing any plan for diversification and leading to an ill-advised purchase. When the reality played out, Coutinho’s integration into the Barcelona setup revealed that the team preferred players capable of challenging defenses on the break. Had Werner been at hand during the 2018 Champions League quarterfinals, the outcome against Roma could have changed dramatically due to his aerial threat and pace.

Consequently, Barcelona could have potentially avoided losing 4-1 on aggregate to Roma, directly benefiting from a counter-attacking style enabled by Werner’s presence, positioning them to dominate Liverpool in the semifinals and face El Clasico rivals, Real Madrid, in the final.

Following that trajectory, Barcelona might have secured an easy victory over Real Madrid in the final, although Werner’s scenario resulted in an unfortunate injury that would shadow his career thereafter.

3. Messi remains at Barcelona

Recall that period marked by the financial crisis leading to a press conference in which Sergiño Dest donned a mock-up Chicago Bulls uniform as he witnessed Messi bid farewell to his beloved club? In this alternate scenario, that never comes to pass.

Given Werner’s comparatively inexpensive signing, Barcelona exercised fiscal prudence while maintaining its trust in developing youth. This decision shielded the club from dire financial complications intensified during COVID-19, allowing them to continue compensating Messi while downsizing elsewhere.

4. MLS doesn’t partner with Apple, maintaining its popularity

Even without Messi’s presence in MLS, the league maintained a steady, organic growth trajectory. The quality improved, young talent flourished, and a wave of seasoned stars continued flocking to the league. Crucially, fans could access matches without the need for an Apple TV subscription.

While attendance might not reach the heights seen during Messi’s debut, the league avoids the declines experienced previously and remains positioned to leverage the excitement generated by the upcoming 2026 World Cup.

5. Jesse Marsch becomes the USMNT manager for the 2026 World Cup

Without Salah in pursuit of the 2018 Golden Boot, Harry Kane effortlessly captures the accolade and avoids an ankle injury ahead of the World Cup. This leads to a formidable Tottenham side under Mauricio Pochettino, allowing them to emerge victorious against Barcelona in the 2019 Champions League final.

Subsequently, the United States Soccer Federation opts not to rehire Gregg Berhalter, instead appointing Jesse Marsch, feeling pressure to secure an adequate replacement.

6. Salah steps in for Cristiano Ronaldo at Real Madrid…

Liverpool’s acquisition of Salah may have marked a unique moment in soccer: securing a superstar at a bargain price before his talent became universally recognized. Two significant factors had initially hindered his reputation during his time at Roma.

First was his perceived failure at Chelsea which led to doubts about his capability in the Premier League. Secondly, a misunderstanding of his contributions at Roma, where he recorded 15 goals—lower than lesser-known forwards—ignored his creative role as a winger providing 11 assists.

In our hypothetical reality, Salah remained at Roma for an additional season, reaching 25 goals and 15 assists while helping them seize the Serie A title. His rising star and marketing appeal caught the attention of teams including Real Madrid, especially following Ronaldo’s departure in 2018, prompting a significant transfer.

7. … and wins the Champions League alongside Sadio Mane

As Salah joined Karim Benzema, they formed a formidable duo reminiscent of his partnership with Firmino at Liverpool. However, Madrid failed to address the goal-scoring void left by Ronaldo effectively, postponing their signing of Eden Hazard in this scenario.

Meanwhile, Sadio Mane evolved into the definitive star for Liverpool, with Coutinho assisting in maintaining a well-rounded attacking strategy. Although the team might not have contended for top honors in 2018-19 due to a lack of goal power, Mane’s individual brilliance earned him accolades.

Ultimately, while Liverpool may not have captured titles during the 2018-19 season, their attacking prowess caught the eyes of Real Madrid, prompting an extraordinary offer for Mane. His subsequent transfer commenced a new chapter for both clubs, although that year yielded no trophies for Madrid.

8. Manchester City wins five consecutive Premier League titles by large margins…

After achieving a record-breaking 100-point season in 2017-18, City continued their reign under Pep Guardiola unhindered by competition, winning the league by over 15 points each year. A significant shift occurred in the Premier League, witnessing a decline in its competitive nature.

While Klopp’s Liverpool remained a challenging adversary, the absence of Salah and Mane rendered the squad unable to achieve the necessary balance for a title challenge, leaving City as the dominant force. The Premier League began drawing comparisons to Serie A of the 2010s, prompting concerns about its competitive dynamics.

As negotiations commenced for future broadcasting rights, a looming financial downturn threatened the sustainability of the league, exacerbated by the failed Super League attempt that incited widespread outrage among fans.

9. … and faces relegation before the 2022-23 season

In a dramatic twist, the Premier League leveled 115 charges of financial misconduct against Manchester City, resulting in an unprecedented relegation based on historical precedents set by Juventus in Serie A.

Amid mounting pressure from rival owners and public sentiment, City found their considerable financial clout thwarted by escalating solidarity among other clubs. This outcome led the club to spend the 2022-23 season battling in the Championship.

10. Vinícius Júnior leads Liverpool to their first Premier League title

In reality, Liverpool’s 2022-23 season was marred by exhaustion, following an almost perfect campaign the previous year that fell short of major trophies. However, with City relegated, 2022-23 becomes a prime opportunity for the team to reclaim their title.

Supported by the addition of French midfielder Aurelien Tchouameini and the astute management of key players like Salah, Mane, and Benzema, the team enjoys a resurgence.

Furthermore, Liverpool identifies an untapped talent in Vinícius Júnior—his underlying metrics are exceptional, despite public skepticism regarding his finishing ability. The club seizes the moment, acquiring him for $70 million, a transaction positively influencing their attacking potency.

Júnior quickly emerges as the standout player in the Premier League, seamlessly integrating into Klopp’s system, alongside teammates Diogo Jota, Christopher Nkunku, and Marcus Thuram, amplifying Liverpool’s capacity to create scoring opportunities.

While Liverpool provides a robust challenge to Arsenal for the title, they ultimately triumph in the final stand with an added layer of dynamism contributed by their new signing. In a heart-pounding Champions League semifinals, Liverpool falls to eventual winners Bayern Munich, where Erling Haaland sets a record for scoring 60 goals in a domestic season.

11. The 2025-26 Premier League season is hailed the greatest of all time

The Premier League evolves into a captivating rivalry among equals, with Klopp’s Liverpool and Arteta’s Arsenal vying for supremacy. After years of wondering if Klopp’s teams would leave a lasting legacy without significant silverware, Liverpool emerges with two titles in three years, framing a new narrative in English football.

In what might become one of the youngest teams to win the title, Arsenal’s triumph in 2023-24 further raises the stakes. Meanwhile, Tottenham undergoes a transformation with Harry Kane leading an attack featuring a mix of burgeoning talents.

Even after relegation, Manchester City’s return underscores the shifting dynamics of professional soccer. Guardiola faces a new challenge devoid of extraordinary financial advantages, while the integrity and competitive balance of the league come under intense scrutiny after their demotion.

As the season draws to a close, Guardiola announces intentions to depart City, echoing Klopp’s similarly significant decision not to renew his contract. The race for the title intensifies, culminating in an unprecedented four-way deadlock at the top between Liverpool, Arsenal, City, and Tottenham.