9 Stats That Illuminate…

After a challenging few weeks, it seems inevitable that the top team in the Premier League is set to claim the title.

I predicted this back in October, when both Manchester City and Liverpool were trailing by six and seven points, respectively. The rationale I presented then remains unchanged: Arsenal ultimately secured their first Premier League title in 22 years due to one critical aspect:

This squad possesses one of the greatest defensive lineups we’ve seen, as well as possibly the most effective set-piece strategy in history.

Traditionally, the “defense and set pieces” approach is characteristic of lower-ranking teams, right? Isn’t it necessary to score a multitude of goals to capture a title over a 38-game season?

As noted by the insightful Arsenal blogger Scott Willis a few seasons ago: A team with the top Premier League defense paired with an average attacking performance would achieve a goal differential of +36. Conversely, a superior attack with an average defense would only net a +57 margin.

Despite not being the most thrilling or high-scoring team, Arsenal, under manager Mikel Arteta’s guidance, has crafted a distinctive version of title-winning success. This is a rarity in the current soccer climate, where Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp have shifted paradigms; it’s uncommon to witness a team performing at Arsenal’s level, in the manner they do.

Here are nine statistics that clarify how and why this has been successful.

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26 Goals Conceded

Let’s begin here.

With one game remaining, Arsenal’s current total of 26 goals conceded would tie them for the 11th-fewest in Premier League history, alongside clubs like Liverpool and Manchester City from the 2021-22 season.

The worst finish for any team allowing 26 or fewer goals in a Premier League season has been third place, with a minimum goal differential of +32 and a lowest point total of 77. The baseline here is exceptionally high.

While the pre-Arteta era of Arsenal often gets remembered for its free-flowing play under Arsene Wenger, the 1998-99 squad, for instance, conceded just 17 goals — the league’s second-fewest ever. However, they also drew 12 matches, earned 78 points, and finished second.

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27 Expected Goals Conceded

It’s crucial to understand that each of these seasons has unfolded in its unique context, with different talent levels, economic climates, and tactical styles. Thus, conceding 26 goals in two separate seasons is not a straightforward comparison.

Arsenal is operating in a new era of the Premier League, where set-piece scoring has surged, thanks in part to their approach. This current league is also more competitive than any previous one, underscoring the challenge; the 16th-placed team made it to the Europa League final, while the 17th-placed team reached the Champions League round of 16.

If you’re building a case for Arsenal as the best defensive team in modern football, consider this chart:

Defense encompasses more than merely limiting the quantity and quality of opponent shots. However, by the metric of expected goals (xG) allowed, the discrepancy between Arsenal and Manchester City (second place) is wider than that between City and Wolves, the league’s weakest defense.

This is an astonishing disparity, particularly during the most fiercely competitive Premier League season in history.

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0.4 Goals Allowed Per Game

Once we look beyond the UK, the perspective is even more impressive. Since 2010, only one team that played at least ten games in the Champions League has for fewer goals per game than Arsenal’s current average of 0.4, as they prepare for their upcoming final against Paris Saint-Germain. That was Chelsea, who managed 0.3 goals allowed in 2020-21 when they won the tournament.

The primary contrast between the two squads is that Chelsea allowed 58 goals in the Premier League that season — more than twice as many as Arsenal.

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15 “Great” Chances Allowed

The hallmark of Arsenal’s formidable defense is the extraordinary difficulty teams face in creating high-quality opportunities against them. Here’s how they performed compared to the rest of the Premier League regarding what American Soccer Analysis identifies as “great” chances (shots with at least 0.33 xG):

Arsenal not only excels in this defensive metric but also contradicts a prevailing trend in European soccer where teams increasingly prioritize high-quality shots.

With each season, clubs are attempting fewer long-range efforts while intensifying their focus on quality, making suppression of high-quality chances increasingly challenging.

Nevertheless, Arsenal’s concession of just 15 “great” chances this season marks the lowest total for any Premier League side since 2010.

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62.4% Final-Third Possession

This season, the Gunners allowed an average of just 8.2 shots per game — a figure only 12 other teams have matched or eclipsed since 2010, all directed by Guardiola or Klopp’s stewardship.

However, Arsenal stands out not only in this metric — they controlled 62.4% of the final-third possession, a high figure that ranks within the top 28 for any Premier League team over the past decade, yet isn’t characteristic of a side typically reliant on defending.

Interestingly, this statistic is lower than any of Arsenal’s previous three seasons, wherein they consistently finished as title challengers. It’s also lower than the other teams allowing just eight shots per game, marking a unique defensive approach. While many teams limit shots by keeping possession away from their defensive area, Arsenal focuses on expenditures within the final third.

While opposition teams may frequently approach their area, converting those chances into goals remains an arduous task.

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153 Tackle + Interceptions

A significant factor in Arsenal’s resilience stems from their collective defensive responsibility.

Take Bukayo Saka, for instance:

Over the past four seasons, only seven players have successfully beaten an opponent off the dribble over 100 times while also accumulating 75 goals or assists: Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Mohamed Salah, Michael Olise, Vinícius Júnior, Marcus Thuram, and Saka.

These individuals are crucial to their teams not only in scoring and creating opportunities but also in dismantling defenses. Among them, Kane, Mbappé, and Salah collectively contributed 151 tackles and interceptions, while Saka outperformed them all with a tally of 153.

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59 Switches of Play

A big part of Arsenal’s defensive prowess is its synergy with their attacking style.

Since 2009, no team reaching 80 points in a top-five European league has made fewer switches of play than Arsenal’s 59 this season. Simultaneously, they have executed longer passes outside the attacking third more than any other 80-point team in the last eight seasons. How can we reconcile these two statistics?

Switching is risky; these horizontal passes can enable quick counterattacks. Failing a switch can turn possession in favor of the opponent, making countering easier.

Instead, Arsenal’s long passes primarily originate from David Raya or the center backs, ensuring almost all players are behind the ball if a contest for possession arises.

Arteta’s tactical influences are notably twofold: his experiences as a player under David Moyes at Everton and as an assistant under Guardiola at Manchester City.

The Guardiola imprint is clear: Arteta’s teams excel at ball retention, yet the Moyes influence reflects a more conservative approach, emphasizing defense over a high-risk offensive play. Possession is managed in a way that prioritizes defense and limits scoring opportunities for opponents.

Their counterattacks, when initiated, can be lethal.

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41 Open-Play Goals

It’s important to note the inherent trade-offs in this strategy.

By demanding rigorous defensive output from attackers and potentially creating a conservative playing style, Arteta has limited Arsenal’s ability to tally goals in open play.

As it stands, Arsenal have registered just 41 open-play goals throughout 37 matches — ranking 119th out of 119 teams that have achieved 80 points in a top-five league since 2010.

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18 Corner-Kick Goals

Here’s a breakdown of the expected goals Arsenal produced from corner situations under Arteta through the seasons:

Some attribute the upsurge in set-piece efficiency to hiring set-piece coach Nicolas Jover from Manchester City in 2021. Others suggest that my book, “Net Gains: Inside the Analytics Revolution,” has played a role in illuminating the undervalued aspects of set plays. However, it’s a blend of Jover’s and Arteta’s philosophies, alongside the players’ abilities.

Arsenal’s tally of 18 goals from corner kicks this season places them at the top among all teams in the Big Five leagues according to Opta’s database. Realizing the potential to realize the output of an $80 million striker from corner situations alone alleviates the pressure to engage in risky positional plays against opponents. Consequently, they remain better positioned defensively during turnovers.

Moreover, virtually all their defenders and midfielders are elite at defending, ensuring a collective solid defensive presence on every play.

In the broader tactical context, Gabriel Magalhães stands out as both a remarkable center back and a top candidate for scoring from set-pieces. Along with midfielders like Declan Rice and Saka, the Gunners boast an impressive array of set-piece specialists. The result is a narrative depicted in the above statistics.

When Arteta first entered Arsenal, Liverpool was securing 99 points — a substantial 33 more than the Gunners’ final total. City dominated the following seasons, and Liverpool had secured a Champions League title, while City was poised to win their own.

With the support of immense financial resources, both City and Liverpool were managed by two of the greatest coaches in the sport. Such conditions made it unrealistically challenging for Arsenal to emulate them merely by employing high-pressing or possession football.

Thus, Arsenal adopted an alternative path — and it has proven effective. As Premier League champions, they stand on the brink of Champions League victory with both Pep and Klopp no longer in the picture.

After over two decades of waiting, this iteration of Arsenal—with their unmatched defense and remarkable set-piece effectiveness—now leads the charge as the team to catch.