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Ryan O’Hanlon
Multiple Authors
Can you recall the last time both teams found the net in a UEFA Champions League final? It’s an elusive memory.
It certainly wasn’t last year, when Paris Saint-Germain obliterated Inter Milan in a 5-0 rout, the most lopsided final in history. The year before, Borussia Dortmund struck twice during the first half against Real Madrid, but ultimately failed to score.
In 2023, Romelu Lukaku inadvertently blocked a teammate’s effort, leaving Inter Milan scoreless. Thibault Courtois was named Man of the Match in 2022 for thwarting Liverpool‘s attempts on goal.
In fact, the last time both sides scored in the Champions League final was during the 2018 matchup when Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi were still gracing the fields of Madrid and Barcelona. At that time, the world was unaware of Erling Haaland, and Lamine Yamal was just a child.
A precise corner kick from Dejan Lovren led to a sliding Sadio Mané converting the opportunity, leveling the match at 1-1 in the 55th minute. Following this, Gareth Bale entered the game, scoring twice and sealing the fate of Loris Karius’s career at the elite level.
Although Liverpool found the net that match, Madrid emerged victorious by two goals, leaving much to be desired in terms of competition. So, when was the last time we witnessed a truly “great” final, one where both teams scored and the winner triumphed by a single goal?
To that, we must go back to 2013 when Bayern Munich edged out Borussia Dortmund 2-1. Another example was Real Madrid’s shootout win over Atletico Madrid after a 1-1 stalemate in the 2015-16 season.
This tournament is heralded as the pinnacle of soccer, showcasing the best teams and players competing under immense pressure. Yet, the grand final—a showdown to determine the champion—has lacked genuine competitiveness for over a decade.
As we approach the final on Saturday between PSG and Arsenal, it raises an important question: isn’t this concerning?
Why Do Tournament Finals Disappoint?
The trend of disappointing finals isn’t exclusive to soccer. Consider major American sports like baseball, basketball, and football; they face similar challenges.
The NFL, the most popular league among the three, culminates in the “Super Bowl.” While the event draws attention, the actual game often fails to live up to expectations.
Last year, the Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots by 16 points. Even with a history of close games, around a third of all Super Bowls have seen a winning margin of 17 points or more. This occurs despite these matches featuring the best NFL teams.
Conversely, the NBA Finals and World Series generally provide a more exhilarating spectator experience. They often feel like the pinnacle of their respective sports, showcasing elite performance.
In these sports, championships are settled over multiple games rather than a single match. This format fosters a more electric atmosphere within the familiar home arenas of the teams. The varying dynamics enrich the experience and allow for a deeper understanding of each team’s unique characteristics.
In contrast, the Super Bowl occurs at a predetermined neutral venue with added entertainment such as halftime performances, diluting the authenticity of the sporting experience. Similarly, last year’s Champions League final featured a performance by Linkin Park, which didn’t resonate with every soccer fan’s idea of pre-game excitement. This season, the UEFA description reads:
“The Killers will headline the 2026 UEFA Champions League Final Kick-Off Show presented by Pepsi®. This year’s show will include a cinematic piece featuring lead singer Brandon Flowers and Sir David Beckham as they embark on a playful race to reach the most exciting match of the season…”
As European soccer stadiums increasingly adopt a corporate atmosphere, the distinction between different venues often fades. While attending matches can still feel unique, the overall experience lacks the raw emotion associated with high-stakes games.
Moreover, the way champions are determined adds to the drama; two-leg matchups are favored until the final, adding an element of unpredictability. In a two-leg tie, conceding a goal requires immediate response, but in a single-match final, the stakes and strategies shift substantially.
Statistical records suggest that finals are generally characterized by a more cautious style of play, evidenced by data from Stats Perform dating back to 2010:
– Fouls per game: 28.2 in finals, 25.6 in semifinals
– Possessions won in the attacking third per game: 6.8 in finals, 7.8 in semifinals
– Through balls per game: 2.4 in finals, 5.2 in semifinals
– Touches in the box per game: 26.8 in finals, 29.0 in semifinals
– Percent of final-third passes that are crosses: 15.4% in finals, 13.5% in semifinals
Teams often opt for a more conservative approach in finals, resulting in decreased pressure and a rise in long crosses over strategic passing choices. This combination contributes to a less engaging spectacle, lacking the passion and competitiveness characteristic of earlier tournament matches.
It’s challenging to imagine how adjusting finals to a two-leg format would not enhance the experience and bring in greater revenue. Nonetheless, UEFA’s current model, which dictates bids for hosting rights, consolidates their bargaining power over national federations. Given that clubs and their supporters represent only a small proportion of their countries, turning this into a politically charged issue seems unlikely, especially considering additional matches complicate an already crowded calendar.
It’s increasingly plausible that we’ll witness a Champions League final held in Miami or Tokyo before seeing a return to a two-legged showdown.
Will Saturday’s Champions League Final Be Any Different?
The outcome of these finals often hinges on luck, and if a few key moments had altered in the past, perhaps we wouldn’t be discussing a lack of scoring in Champions League finals over the last two World Cup cycles. In 2022, Liverpool attempted 24 shots that translated to 1.85 expected goals, only to be thwarted by an exceptional performance from Thibault Courtois:
Take note of the purple dots representing shots and the orange dots indicating goals—the disparity is telling.
Had just one of those attempts nestled into the net, the dynamics of the match could have shifted, forcing Madrid to adopt a more offensive strategy, contributing to a classic encounter.
In 2016, neither Madrid side capitalized enough on their chances, while the 2019 final turned on a controversial handball by Moussa Sissoko. The 2023 final became a showcase for Manchester City, solidifying their treble win:
But how did we perceive each of these matchups ahead of time?
According to historical data from Covers, here are the odds assigned to the past ten Champions League finals:
It’s worth noting that based on pre-match betting, one would anticipate Madrid to win roughly 2.7 titles; however, their five victories truly seemed expected, even if statistically improbable.
The average favorite entering these finals has seen a 63% probability of winning—a figure that appears inflated given the caliber of teams involved and the lack of home-field advantage.
This might explain why finals often lack the competitiveness one would anticipate, as the random nature of knockout tournaments means the best two teams do not always end up facing each other in the final.
Moreover, the favorite has emerged victorious in eight of the last ten finals; the only underdog triumphs were by Chelsea and Real Madrid back-to-back.
Looking forward to Saturday, skepticism lingers. PSG has consistently dominated their knockout stage, and their squad is even stronger than last season when they triumphed 5-0.
Arsenal, having just clinched the Premier League title, has faced injuries throughout the season. They’ve capitalized on a seemingly easier path and their strategy is not exactly geared toward a high-octane scoring approach.
Will PSG apply relentless pressure and overwhelm the Gunners? While that’s a possibility, I remain skeptical. This final presents a rare collision of contrasting styles: PSG’s aggressive, attacking play versus Arsenal’s robust defensive approach.
Typically, such stylistic matchups occur between a clear favorite and an underdog, but this time, both teams possess considerable strength and financial backing with differing game plans. According to Club Elo ratings, which rely on match outcomes, location, and opponent strength, Arsenal ranks highest globally, while PSG sits fourth.
With PSG favored at 57%, this represents the closest odds since 2018, which saw the rare occurrence of both teams scoring. Here’s hoping for a repeat this Saturday.