After four years and 54 matches, the U.S. men’s national team has secured its place in the World Cup once again, aiming for their best-ever finish on home soil.
What steps must the U.S. take to make history this tournament?
Discounting the inaugural 1930 World Cup with only 13 teams and no qualifiers, the USMNT’s top performance was in 2002 when they reached the quarterfinals. This was also the only occasion they won a knockout match in the modern World Cup setup.
This year, with the tournament expanded to 48 teams, the debut round of 32 provides the U.S. with a promising opportunity to notch its first World Cup knockout victory in 24 years.
However, the challenge may be greater than it appears. Advancing out of the group stage is by no means assured for the U.S., and depending on bracket configurations, the round of 32 could present a formidable opponent.
To help you keep track, ESPN will regularly update the possible scenarios, odds, and predictions regarding the U.S. team’s journey through the World Cup. Be sure to bookmark this page for the latest insights.
USMNT Scenarios and Pathways: What Lies Ahead in the World Cup?
The shift from 32 to 48 total teams and the introduction of the round of 32 theoretically makes it simpler for the U.S. to advance from the group stage than in prior tournaments. Nonetheless, projecting their route through the competition is now more complex.
The primary factor complicating matters is that all 12 group winners and 12 second-placed teams will progress to the knockout phase, joined by the eight best third-placed teams. The grouping of these third-placed teams will dictate specific matchups, resulting in 495 potential combinations. Therefore, the final matchweek may feature considerable unpredictability as teams strive to keep their World Cup aspirations alive.
The ranking of third-place teams will follow these criteria, in order:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Team conduct score
5. FIFA world ranking
Thus, in the event of a tie on points, the team with the superior goal difference will rank higher, continuing down the provided criteria.
Here’s what various group stage outcomes would mean for the U.S. team:
If the U.S. finishes first in Group D: The team secures a place in the round of 32, but the opponent will likely remain unknown until group play concludes. Potential matchups could include the runner-up from any of five groups: B, E, F, I, or J.
If the U.S. finishes second: They will advance to the round of 32 and face the runner-up of Group G, featuring teams like Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand.
If the U.S. finishes third: Their progression will depend on whether they qualify among the top eight third-placed teams. If they advance, they will face the winner of Group E, I, or K. Potential opponents include Germany, France, Portugal, or Colombia. Otherwise, the U.S. will be eliminated from the tournament.
If the U.S. finishes fourth: Their World Cup campaign will conclude, leading to four years of anticipation for what comes next.
USMNT Betting Odds: How Sportsbooks View the Team’s Chances
Even if you’re not into betting, the odds provided by sportsbooks can help gauge the U.S. team’s standing in the tournament. Oddsmakers have a financial incentive to accurately assess the World Cup landscape to set appropriate betting lines.
As for current odds, DraftKings lists the U.S. with +6000 odds, or 60-to-1, to win the World Cup, placing them behind 15 other teams.
Among individual players, oddsmakers project Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun as the top scorers for the USMNT, both at +320 odds. Giovanni Reyna sits sixth with 10-to-1 odds.
Looking ahead to their opening match, the Americans will face Paraguay on Friday as narrow favorites. The odds for a U.S. victory are set at -105, indicating just above a coin flip. A draw carries slightly lower odds, while Paraguay winning has the highest odds at +295, suggesting around a 25% chance of occurring.
USMNT Projections: Insights from Data Models
If betting is not your preference, statistical models offer other insights into the World Cup landscape. Numerous projections exist to predict outcomes for the tournament, and we will focus on those supported by robust data that will be updated in real time.
An example is the DTAI Sports Analytics Lab from KU Leuven, a research institution in Belgium. This projection model utilizes an Elo rating system, ranking teams based on recent performance, match scores, and the strength of opponents. Similar to other predictive data, Opta offers a hybrid Elo-based model combined with betting odds that gives the U.S. a 77% chance of progressing past the group stage.
The DTAI model goes further by merging Elo ratings with offense and defense ratings to estimate how many goals teams will likely score or concede against average opponents.
This model estimates a 78% chance for the U.S. to advance to the knockout rounds, equating to a 22% chance of being “grouped.” Here’s how the model forecasts the U.S. group stage matches:
Two important takeaways:
Firstly, while the U.S. has the highest odds of losing each match, the combined odds of winning or drawing still offer good chances for group advancement. The potential of third-place teams advancing makes the group stage more lenient. Despite having higher odds of losing, securing one or three points through a win or draw is more favorable overall.
Secondly, this model indicates poorer chances for the U.S. than sportsbooks, reflecting a difference between human forecasting and machine-driven predictions. The DTAI model provides an unbiased assessment of the USMNT’s quality; however, it is unable to factor in the unique advantage of competing on home soil during the World Cup.
Will the oddsmakers’ predictions or the data models prove more accurate? We’ll be keeping track of both as the tournament unfolds, so stay tuned for updates!