The upcoming FIFA World Cup will see an unprecedented nine nations from the Asian Football Confederation competing, thanks to the expansion to a 48-team format in 2026. Eight teams secured their places through the Asian qualifiers, with Iraq clinching the final spot via the inter-confederation playoffs to ensure full representation from the continent.
Before any matches are played, there is plenty of hope and anticipation. However, it’s clear that while some teams have tough challenges ahead, others may be able to start planning for the knockout stages already.
The draw plays a significant role in determining each team’s fate. Some of the stronger teams may face difficult adversaries, while those deemed weaker could find themselves in more balanced matchups.
Taking into account their matchups and overall form, we rank the Asian teams in the World Cup based on their likelihood of advancing beyond the group stage.
9. Iraq (FIFA Rank: No. 56)
Iraq is the last Asian team to qualify for the World Cup, securing their spot three months ago. However, their chances of advancing are slim due to the tough draw they face.
Despite holding a higher world ranking than Jordan, as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Iraq’s Group I has pit them against formidable opponents, including top-15 teams France and Senegal. Their third rival, Norway, also boasts world-class talents like Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard.
Given these challenging matchups, it seems unlikely Iraq will manage to secure even a third-place finish.
8. Jordan (FIFA Rank: No. 63)
Jordan has made significant progress recently, capped by their first appearance in an AFC Asian Cup final earlier this year.
Though they don’t feature many well-known players, they do have notable talents like captain Musa Al-Taamari, who plays in Ligue 1.
However, Jordan’s World Cup debut will be tough, facing all three opponents within the top 30 in global rankings. A draw against either Austria or Algeria might be a realistic hope, with a high-profile match against defending champions Argentina providing a chance for exposure.
7. Qatar (FIFA Rank: No. 57)
After a lackluster performance as hosts in 2022, Qatar is viewed as a team that might fare better this time around, especially since Group B is considered to lack dominant teams, with Switzerland being the highest-ranked at No. 19.
Regrettably, Qatar has shown little improvement since their last appearance. Canada, co-hosts, will enjoy home advantage, while Bosnia-Herzegovina — ranked No. 64 — has players competing in top European leagues, raising concerns for Qatar.
Securing a win may be essential for them to advance as one of the best third-placed teams, but it remains unclear which team they might realistically beat.
1:55
Will Qatar or Bosnia-Herzegovina progress from Group B at the World Cup?
Uzbekistan will also be making their World Cup debut and face an uphill battle against top 15 teams Portugal and Colombia. However, they might have a better chance against Congo DR, particularly with players featuring in notable European leagues, including Manchester City defender Abdukodir Khusanov.
Uzbekistan will need to keep the scorelines close against Colombia and Portugal and should secure a positive goal difference to facilitate a possible win against Congo DR, potentially allowing them to progress to the knockout stage in their first attempt.
0:40
Cannavaro: Uzbekistan have nothing to lose at the World Cup
It’s important to remember that even a team like Saudi Arabia, which pulled off a stunning victory against Argentina in the last World Cup, could surprise again. However, like Leicester City’s Premier League win in 2016, expectations remain low.
Likely losses are anticipated against Spain and Uruguay for Saudi Arabia, with their best chance coming on the final match day against Cape Verde, the tournament’s fifth-lowest ranked team, although the Green Falcons are ranked just six spots higher.
A win over Cape Verde could open the possibility of a third-place advancement in the group.
4. Iran (FIFA Rank: No. 20)
While Japan, South Korea, and Australia often steal the spotlight, Iran is the second-highest ranked Asian nation in FIFA standings. Their World Cup experience includes a win against Morocco and a draw with Portugal in 2018, plus a victory over Wales in 2022, although their preparations have been challenging.
Belgium is expected to lead Group G. Despite Egypt’s perceived strength with players like Salah and Omar Marmoush, Iran has its own Europe-based stars.
A victory over New Zealand, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament, is crucial for Iran, and if they can also beat Egypt, they will be in a strong position.
3:34
Iran’s Jahanbakhsh: We’re in the U.S. to call for peace and unity
3. Japan (FIFA Rank: No. 18)
With their significant progress over the years, expectations for Japan’s progression to the knockout rounds are high. The team has performed well in previous tournaments and should advance, though they must remain cautious against potential upsets.
The Netherlands stands as their biggest competitor for Group D’s top spot, although having defeated Germany and Spain in 2022 may serve them well in this matchup.
The real challenge lies in games where they are expected to win, particularly against European teams known for their physicality, which can disrupt their flow.
Nonetheless, given their recent friendly victories over teams like Brazil and England, Japan is positioned well for a run to the round of 32 and beyond.
1:43
Have injuries ruined Japan’s chances of causing World Cup upsets?
Australia’s Group D is viewed as one of the most evenly matched in the tournament. Every team, including the Socceroos, has a viable shot at winning matches against each other.
However, any slip-ups could lead to disastrous outcomes. Australia is capable of topping the group with a perfect record but must avoid losing ground in this competitive atmosphere.
1:47
What are the expectations for Australia at the World Cup?
Lastly, we turn our attention to South Korea, who will also face a challenging yet competitive group stage. It wouldn’t be unusual for them to pull off a victory against co-host Mexico, but they may also experience unexpected setbacks against lower-ranked teams like South Africa.
Ultimately, South Korea will aim for at least two wins out of three matches. With Group A presenting a realistic target, they should feel in control of their destiny as the tournament unfolds.