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David Purdum
Multiple Authors
Interest in betting on the World Cup surged during the tournament’s opening week, driven by standout performances from top players, an early win by the U.S. that impacted sportsbooks, and multiple draws that helped bookmakers recover losses.
Both sportsbooks and prediction markets reported unprecedented action, with Hard Rock Bet stating that World Cup betting could surpass the combined totals of the Super Bowl and March Madness. On Saturday, which featured Game 5 of the NBA Finals alongside three World Cup matches, Kalshi’s prediction market reported surpassing $1 billion in volume for the first time in a single day, according to DeFi Rate. The platform achieved this milestone again on Sunday.
DraftKings also reported a surge in activity on its prediction market over the past week.
“On several days, our figures have doubled compared to previous records,” stated Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ sportsbook director, attributing this growth to the company’s expansion into California, Texas, and Florida.
The U.S.’s impressive 4-1 victory over Paraguay was the most bet-on match in the first week, according to BetMGM, which noted that the U.S. opener generated 1.5 times the betting volume of the next closest match—Brazil vs. Morocco. Hard Rock Bet reported that this match attracted more individual bets than any soccer game in its history, favoring the Americans, with over 90% of the total money wagered backing the U.S.
Since that Friday, the U.S. has drawn more bets to win the World Cup than any other team at BetMGM.
On Monday, sportsbooks had a remarkable turnaround, with all four matches ending in draws, including Cape Verde shocking Spain with a 0-0 result.
“This was a huge win for the trading floor since Spain was heavily favored by bettors for both individual bets and parlays,” remarked Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer for Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars Sportsbook announced that a bettor from Kentucky turned a $20 bet into $11,646 with a four-leg parlay that included all four matches ending in draws on Monday. Still, the sportsbooks came out ahead, as bettors generally avoided wagers on draws.
On Tuesday, bettors favored three superstars to score, and their confidence paid off as Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland, and Kylian Mbappé each scored. Messi notably achieved a hat trick while listed at +1750 odds for such an outcome at Caesars Sportsbook, while Haaland and Mbappé, who were favored to score, achieved two goals each.
Mbappé netted his second goal during stoppage time in France‘s 3-1 victory over Senegal. This late goal completed a lucrative parlay for a Hard Rock Bet customer, who placed a $25,000 three-leg parlay that returned $522,112.50, with the final leg being France winning by two or more goals.
France is currently the favorite to win the World Cup, with odds around 4-1.
On Thursday, the U.S. was a -170 favorite to defeat Australia in their Friday match at DraftKings, while Australia was an underdog at +340. U.S. star Christian Pulisic had been limited in training due to an injury sustained in the Paraguay match.
Dom DeBonis, who manages soccer odds for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, expressed confidence that Pulisic would be available, even if not at full capacity, for the match on Friday, saying, “I’m not overly concerned; I don’t expect a struggle to draw U.S. betting.”
On Wednesday, BetMGM indicated that 92% of the money wagered on the U.S.-Australia game backed the Americans.
ESPN’s Doug Greenberg contributed to this story.