- Of the 12 teams that finish third, eight will advance—two-thirds of them.
- In the old 32-team format, that’s roughly the same as the top five third-place finishers going through.
- Across the seven tournaments since 1998, the fifth-ranked third-place team always had at least three points: Colombia (1998), Portugal (2002), Poland (2006), Ivory Coast (2010 and 2014), Nigeria (2018) and Tunisia (2022).
- That means goal difference could be decisive this year.
- Examples: in 1998 and 2006, three points with a -2 goal difference (Colombia and Poland) still made the cut as the fifth-best third-place side. In 2010, Ivory Coast had three points with a +1 goal difference; in 2002, Portugal had three points with a +2 goal difference and qualified as the fifth-best third-placed team.
- In 2022, Tunisia, Cameroon and Uruguay were tied for the fifth-best third-place spot: all finished on four points with the same goal difference and identical records (one win, one draw, one loss).
- With 12 groups instead of eight this time, results may vary more widely, but recent history suggests three points is a risky target—and goal difference will likely be crucial.
- In 1998, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 combined, 13 third-placed teams finished on three points yet did not rank among the top five third-place sides.
- This piece is part of BBC Sport’s Ask Me Anything series.
June22June 22, 2026