Eight of the 12 third-placed teams will advance—exactly two-thirds.
In the 32-team format, that’s roughly equivalent to the five best third-placed sides going through.
Across the seven tournaments since 1998, the fifth-ranked third-placed team always had at least three points: Colombia (1998), Portugal (2002), Poland (2006), Ivory Coast (2010 and 2014), Nigeria (2018), Tunisia (2022).
As a result, goal difference could be a major deciding factor this year.
In 1998, Colombia advanced with three points and a -2 goal difference; in 2006, Poland did so with the same tally and goal difference.
Ivory Coast were fifth-best in 2010 with three points and a +1 goal difference, while in 2002 Portugal managed it with three points and a +2 goal difference.
In 2022, Tunisia, Cameroon and Uruguay tied for fifth among third-placed teams—each finished on four points with an even goal difference and a 1-1-1 record.
With 12 groups instead of eight this time, results may vary more widely, but recent trends suggest three points may not be enough—and goal difference will likely be crucial.
Across 1998, 2002, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, 13 third-placed teams ended on three points but still missed out on the top five third-place spots.
This piece is from BBC Sport’s Ask Me Anything team.