Expanding the World Cup to 48 teams created an obvious headache: it’s an awkward number for a neatly balanced tournament.
With 32 teams, everything was straightforward—eight groups of four, the top two advancing to the last 16, then quarters, semis, and the final.
Adding 16 more nations forced Fifa to find a new path to a clean knockout bracket, and none of the options preserved the old format’s intensity.
The first idea was 16 groups of three, with the top two in each moving into the knockouts. But three-team groups invite problems: the sides in the final fixture know exactly what result they need, opening the door to games managed for mutual benefit.
Fifa is well aware of the dangers after the notorious 1982 episode, when West Germany beat Austria 1-0 in the last standalone match of their group, a result that sent both through and eliminated Algeria. That controversy led to the rule that final group games kick off simultaneously—something you can’t do with groups of three.
The drama of the group finales in Qatar prompted a rethink. Fifa switched to 12 groups of four, with simultaneous last matches determining who advances.
There’s a crucial twist, though: to reach a 32-team knockout phase, eight third-placed teams also progress. That reduces jeopardy—exiting can be harder than going through.
We’ve already seen the effects this week. Australia and Paraguay met on Thursday as second and third in Group D, both on three points. Because four points almost always secures one of the third-place spots, a draw suited both. It finished 0-0. Australia are safely through in second and celebrated; Paraguay kept a low profile but are very likely to advance as well.
A similar setup looms in Group J with Austria versus Algeria (03:00 BST Sunday). Both sit on three points, and a draw would probably send them both through, while a loss could be costly. After suffering in 1982, Algeria might benefit from the new dynamics in 2026.
You could make the same case for Thursday’s Group F game: Japan started on four points, Sweden on three. Their 1-1 draw guaranteed Sweden’s progress with minimal downside for Japan. Group L presents a comparable picture, with Ghana on four and Croatia on three.