First, South Africa edged South Korea 1-0, securing a top-two place in their group and dropping South Korea—who still have a better goal difference than Scotland—into third.
Next, Ecuador stunned Germany 2-1, finishing third in their group on four points to book a last-32 berth.
Sweden then held Japan to a 1-1 draw, also advancing from third place with four points.
According to Opta, Scotland’s qualification chances fell to 6.89% at that point, dropping further to 5.26% after Paraguay shared a goalless draw with Australia that suited both teams.
Uruguay’s loss to Spain provided a rare positive, but Iran’s draw with Egypt leaves Scotland with just a 0.07% chance of going through.
Those outcomes put Scotland 10th among the 12 current third-placed teams, teetering on the edge of missing the knockouts.
If teams are tied on points in the third-place table, goal difference determines the rankings.
With only three groups still to finish, Scotland now need several results to break their way.
They require Austria to beat Algeria by at least two goals, or for Algeria to win by four or more.
They also need Ghana to defeat Croatia by three or more, and either a draw between DR Congo and Uzbekistan, or an Uzbekistan win by no more than three goals.