Have you managed to catch your breath? The group stage of the 2026 World Cup was filled with unforgettable moments (how about Cape Verde?), and it’s hard to believe that it was just the warm-up for three weeks of thrilling knockout soccer at the world’s premier stage.
After days of dizzying twists and turns regarding matchups, the bracket is now finalized. This presents us with the opportunity to evaluate some potential overreactions regarding the upcoming matches, assessing which teams are set for success and which may exit the tournament sooner than anticipated.
Let’s jump in, starting with the United States.
Quick Links:
USMNT Must Reach Quarterfinals?
Argentina as Favorites?
End for Mexico?
Exciting Round of 32 Ahead?
1:55
How would Belgium fare in a potential Round of 16 clash against the USA?
USMNT: Quarterfinals or Bust
Don’t let the recent group stage loss to Türkiye cloud your judgment—the U.S. fielded a team filled mostly with substitutes. Considering their first two matches, there’s much to admire. The opening match against Paraguay showcased some of the most exhilarating attacking football from the U.S. men’s team in history. The victory against Australia demonstrated a different facet, where they managed to build a lead and maintain it firmly without permitting any thoughts of a comeback.
Confidence has soared for the U.S., and according to the FIFA algorithm, they’ve landed one of the least challenging opponents for the round of 32: Bosnia and Herzegovina. The DTAI Sports Analytics Lab from KU Leuven ranks Bosnia and Herzegovina with the fifth-lowest Elo rating among all teams in the knockout rounds.
Belgium appears to be the Americans’ likely opponent in the round of 16 (should they overcome Senegal), and while they have talent, anything less than a U.S. run to the quarterfinals would be viewed as a letdown.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
If Belgium hadn’t convincingly defeated New Zealand to secure victory in their group, the U.S. would have a clearer path to the quarterfinals. If both teams succeed in their upcoming matches, they will meet in the round of 16. Though limiting the talents of winger Jérémy Doku and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne will be a significant challenge for the U.S. defense, the growing self-belief among the squad at their training camp in Irvine, California, leads them to believe they can prevail against the Belgians.
Could the U.S. advance even further? It’s a possibility. However, should they navigate the first two rounds successfully, they would have to confront the tournament co-favorites Spain for a place in the semifinals. This would demand the U.S. to not only play at their peak but also adapt their style. Paraguay and Australia were content to allow the U.S. to maintain control, with the Americans boasting 65.0% and 61.1% possession against those teams, respectively. Proving their ability to win while not dominating possession and applying necessary pressure to Spain’s skilled players would present an entirely new challenge.
2:07
Strategies for Defending Against Messi and Argentina
Messi and Argentina: Favorites to Win It All
Prior to the tournament, we asked 19 of our writers to make predictions on potential World Cup champions among other topics. The vast majority chose either France or Spain as favorites, with only three writers diverging from this trend, and none selected Argentina. In fact, only eight of the 19 even anticipated Argentina reaching the semifinals.
What were the expectations? Was it really absurd to assume the reigning world champions wouldn’t stay in the race until the end? They topped the South American qualifiers and retained most of the key players who contributed to their 2022 triumph.
With six goals from Lionel Messi, Argentina has proven they can’t be underestimated. Plus, since the Albiceleste is on the opposite side of the bracket from the two pre-tournament favorites, they are well-positioned for a spot in the final. (England and Brazil might argue, but neither has showcased the same level of performance, and Argentina would only need to face one of them to advance to the final.)
Verdict: OVERREACTION
This perceived overreaction arises not from a lack of respect for Argentina, but rather from France’s exceptional performance. In Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, and Désiré Doué, they possess the most formidable attacking lineup in the tournament, and they displayed this in the group stage. With four goals from Mbappé, three from Dembélé, and Olise orchestrating brilliant play with incisive passes, facing Les Blues will demand a remarkable defensive effort.
France’s road in the knockout rounds may not be straightforward—it could see them encounter Germany, Netherlands, and Spain before a possible final clash with Argentina (what wouldn’t we give for another showdown reminiscent of the 2022 final?). However, none of those teams will relish the idea of meeting France.
Still, Argentina should firmly hold a place as a strong second favorite. And let’s commit to never underestimating the legendary 39-year-old Messi—after years of striving for the supreme accolade in international soccer, he could very well add a second consecutive World Cup trophy to his list of achievements.
1:37
Herculez Gomez: A Perfect Group Phase for Mexico
Mexico Likely to Exit in Round of 32
You can’t help but sympathize with Mexico. Their journey has unfolded as favorably as any El Tri supporter could have hoped, sweeping all three group-stage matches—a first in their World Cup history. It wasn’t without challenges—Czechia provided tough competition for 45 minutes, and South Korea even outperformed in xG (expected goals) with a score of 0.91 to 0.53 against Mexico. Still, one cannot overlook three clean sheets and a memorable appearance from 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa during the Czechia match, receiving an impressive ovation.
Their reward for this success? A round-of-32 match against Ecuador. The South American side was on the verge of elimination until a dramatic 77th-minute goal from a set piece—thanks to a blunder by German goalkeeper Manuel Neuer—rescued their tournament aspirations.
The DTAI lab currently ranks Ecuador as having the 14th-highest Elo rating in the tournament (while Mexico holds the 12th spot), marking the best ranking among the third-place teams that advanced to the knockout stages, superior to any opponent Mexico previously faced. Their odds couldn’t be more unfortunate.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Two words: Estadio Azteca (or “Mexico City Stadium,” according to FIFA’s< a href="https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48939622/from-gridiron-pitch-how-nfl-stadiums-transformed-2026-fifa-world-cup" target="_blank"> peculiar branding rules).
The home advantage that the legendary stadium offers is well-documented—Mexico has never lost in nine World Cup matches there, making it an intimidating venue for visiting teams.
The elevation of the stadium is another sizeable factor. At 7,300 feet above sea level (about 2,000 feet higher than Denver’s Empower Field at Mile High), the Azteca becomes a daunting challenge for teams unaccustomed to such conditions, draining their stamina and leaving them struggling for breath. Ecuador, though among the better-adapted teams, faces challenges as only two squad members play club soccer in Ecuador.
Is it really plausible for a team that couldn’t score against Ivory Coast and Curaçao to be the one to finally upend Mexico at the Azteca? I wouldn’t gamble on it.
1:43
Burley: Cape Verde’s Progress to the Knockouts is a ‘Wonderful Story’
The Upcoming Round of 32 Could Be Remarkable
Ahead of the World Cup, there were justified concerns that expanding the tournament from 32 to 48 teams might result in unnecessary dilution. However, based on the group stages, those fears seem unfounded.
Raise your hand if you predicted Cape Verde finishing second in their group, ahead of powerhouse Saudi Arabia and two-time World Cup champions Uruguay. No one? That sounds about right! What about South Africa securing an automatic qualification spot or Egypt advancing to the knockout rounds for the first time?
The key takeaway is that the inclusion of more teams hasn’t noticeably compromised match quality, with even the more imbalanced fixtures appearing on par with those from 2022. The round of 32 promises to deliver thrilling matchups. France versus Sweden and Argentina taking on Cape Verde look to be exhilarating clashes, even if they might not have resulted from the previous format.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The upcoming round of 32 is the largest set of knockout matches we’ve ever encountered. More games equate to a greater likelihood of surprises. Not only can we expect the usual knockout excitement, but the chance of seeing a high-profile team like Portugal or Belgium exit early is also higher. For those who favor conventional competitive matchups, the pairings of Netherlands versus Morocco and Brazil against Japan look intriguing on paper.
This World Cup has shown us that no team should be underestimated or taken lightly.