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Bill Connelly
Multiple Authors
The FIFA World Cup stands as the most-watched sports event globally, serving as a powerful storyteller while also producing unpredictable outcomes. Coaches’ fates, players’ legacies, and national morale hinge not just on tactics but also on the fortunate timing of health and whether the ball finds the net.
During the 2026 World Cup, the United States men’s national team showcased several promising performances, only to culminate in a disappointing exit against Belgium. While the earlier matches brought a fresh wave of optimism and millions of viewers, the disheartening finale reignited the familiar debates about “Why isn’t the U.S. better at soccer?”
This situation begs the question: Are our narratives about U.S. soccer accurate?
The modern history of the U.S. team’s World Cup journey can be briefly outlined: After a 40-year hiatus from the tournament, the U.S. struggled in 1990, exceeded expectations in 1994, floundered in 1998, reached unprecedented heights in 2002, underperformed in 2006, and delivered average showings in 2010, 2014, 2022, and 2026, while experiencing a crushing disappointment with the 2018 qualification. Despite a noticeable increase in the number of American players thriving in Europe, it often seems as though significant progress has stalled.
But do the statistics support this perception? In terms of chances created and overall quality, how does the United States’ World Cup narrative stack up?
Event data and advanced statistics collected by Stats Perform for each World Cup since 1966 raise questions about the U.S. men’s national team’s modern performances and their expected goals (xG).
1990 World Cup
We’ll keep this section brief. With Paul Caligiuri’s spectacular goal against Trinidad & Tobago, the U.S. qualified for the 1990 World Cup after a 40-year absence. However, a youthful team composed largely of semi-professionals was overwhelmed at Italia ’90, and the 8-2 aggregate score was almost lenient.
June 10, 1990: Czechoslovakia 5, USA 1
Total xG: Czechoslovakia 6.13, USA 0.84
A five-goal defeat usually indicates significant over-performance by the scoring team, but Czechoslovakia could have easily increased their tally. They went into halftime leading 2-0, and after Eric Wynalda received a red card in the 52nd minute, the U.S. allowed 22 shots worth 4.2 xG in the second half, yielding just three goals.
June 14, 1990: Italy 1, USA 0
Total xG: Italy 2.04, USA 0.77
Facing a strong Italy team that reached the semifinals, the U.S. performed much better, prompting important saves from Italy’s Walter Zenga. However, after Italy scored in the 12th minute, victory felt distant.
June 19, 1990: Austria 2, USA 1
Total xG: Austria 2.18, USA 1.22
This scoreline appears more respectable until one considers that Austria played down a man for 56 minutes. Despite this, they generated more chances and led 2-0 before Bruce Murray scored for the U.S. in the 83rd minute.
1994 World Cup
For many, this marks the beginning of the U.S. soccer narrative: hosted by America, the World Cup showcased a rugged, youthful squad—mostly employed by the federation—that held its own in a tough group, challenged Brazil in the knockout rounds, and asserted itself as a nation with soccer potential.
Statistics suggest, however, that things could have been much worse for the Americans.
(Note: Since FIFA rankings began in 1992, I will include each opponent’s ranking for added context.)
June 18, 1994: USA 1, No. 12 Switzerland 1
Total xG: Switzerland 0.97, USA 0.78
In the Pontiac Silverdome, the Americans earned a fair draw against a surprisingly good Swiss side. While Switzerland matched the U.S. in shots, none were particularly dangerous. Wynalda scored a stunning free kick just before halftime, and the U.S. managed a solid point.
June 23, 1994: USA 2, No. 17 Colombia 1
Total xG: Colombia 1.98, USA 0.90
This match was quite fortunate for the U.S. They took an early lead through an own goal from Andres Escobar before extending it to 2-0 on Earnie Stewart’s brilliant strike. The match was even until the Americans retreated defensively, relying on goalkeeper Tony Meola to deny numerous long-range shots from the frustrated Colombian side.
June 26, 1994: No. 7 Romania 1, USA 0
Total xG: USA 0.83, Romania 0.59
This match showcased a bit of unfortunate luck for the Americans, who managed to create the first three shots. Romania scored with their first attempt through Dan Petrescu’s precise shot, and the U.S. struggled to find clear opportunities as Romania’s defense shut down their attempts after they took the lead. The U.S. finished the group stage with four points.
July 4, 1994: No. 3 Brazil 1, USA 0
Total xG: Brazil 3.50, USA 0.13
During this match, I remember being amazed that the U.S. seemed to hold their own against Brazil, though that was misleading. Before Leonardo’s red card, Brazil had already outshot the U.S. 10-3, generating three high-quality chances. Even with one less player, Brazil limited the U.S. to just one shot—a long-range effort from Michael Sorber that was intercepted. Ultimately, the U.S. was remarkably lucky to not lose by more.
Throughout the tournament, the U.S. had been outscored 4-3, which was commendable, but opponents had amassed 7.0 xG to the U.S.’s 2.6, leading to questions about their performance.
1998 World Cup
Luck has a way of leveling itself out. At the 1998 France World Cup, the Americans faced a “group of death”—including top 8-ranked teams Germany and Yugoslavia—and were eliminated amid team turmoil. While the U.S. didn’t perform well enough to advance, they could have potentially salvaged a couple of draws.
June 15, 1998: No. 2 Germany 2, USA 0
Total xG: Germany 1.58, USA 0.67
The first half was end-to-end chaos, with Germany controlling possession while the U.S. struggled to threaten the goal. However, the U.S. rebounded in the second half, generating an equal xG and effectively matching Germany’s efforts despite ultimately being undone by a second goal from Jürgen Klinsmann.
June 21, 1998: No. 42 Iran 2, USA 1
Total xG: Iran 1.90, USA 1.67
The spirited effort expected from the U.S. turned into a wide-open match; a draw would have reflected fairly on both sides. Both teams created chances during the first half until Iran’s Hamid-Reza Estili broke the deadlock just before halftime. Iran then struck again through Mehdi Mahdavikia, leaving the U.S. to grasp at hope with Brian McBride’s late goal that wasn’t enough to push them forward.
June 25, 1998: No. 8 Yugoslavia 1, USA 0
Total xG: Yugoslavia 1.02, USA 0.95
The U.S. showed intense effort despite already being eliminated; unfortunately, they conceded first and couldn’t find the net, ending with a disappointing campaign. Across the tournament, the U.S. was outscored 5-1, while opponents generated 4.5 xG against the Americans’ respectable 3.3.
2002 World Cup
Good fortune returned to the U.S. in 2002, at least until it didn’t. Despite a stellar opening match, xG suggests luck was integral in helping the team reach the quarterfinals, while misfortune played a part in not progressing further.
June 5, 2002: USA 3, No. 5 Portugal 2
Total xG: USA 1.73, Portugal 1.45
This match stands as one of America’s greatest World Cup displays.
Against a Portugal team boasting stars like Luis Figo and Rui Costa, the Americans surged ahead early with a rebound goal in the fourth minute. Following a stroke of luck when a cross deflected in for a second goal, McBride added a header to put the U.S. 3-0 up. While they faced mounting pressure afterward, Portugal’s efforts fell short, and the U.S. secured a dramatic victory.
June 10, 2002: USA 1, No. 40 South Korea 1
Total xG: South Korea 3.10, USA 0.38
This match revealed a standout performance by goalkeeper Brad Friedel, who made nine saves—including one spectacular penalty stop—allowing the Americans to salvage a crucial draw in an otherwise one-sided match.
June 14, 2002: No. 38 Poland 3, USA 1
Total xG: Poland 3.59, USA 1.88
Despite fielding a veteran squad, the Americans struggled in a disappointing performance against Poland, digging themselves into an early hole and failing to muster a comeback.
June 17, 2002: USA 2, No. 7 Mexico 0
Total xG: USA 1.98, Mexico 1.09
The Americans returned to form, showcasing their capability with a strong win while enjoying a few lucky breaks along the way, including a missed handball in the box. The U.S. played excellently, outpacing Mexico with McBride scoring the opener and Donovan sealing the win with a counterattacking goal.
June 21, 2002: No. 11 Germany 1, USA 0
Total xG: USA 2.00, Germany 1.66
Ending on a what-if, the U.S. held their ground well against Germany, matching their xG, but a late first-half goal snatched victory. Despite a few missed opportunities, the U.S. was ultimately left to reflect on what might have been.
2006 World Cup
Once again, the U.S. found itself in a notorious group of death in 2006, coupled with high expectations following a record FIFA ranking. What transpired was a disheartening performance, statistically even worse than 1998.
June 12, 2006: No. 2 Czech Republic 3, USA 0
Total xG: Czech Republic 1.76, USA 0.42
The U.S. bore the brunt of a decisive defeat, allowing the Czechs to score from high-quality chances while struggling to generate any significant threat in return.
June 17, 2006: USA 1, No. 13 Italy 1
Total xG: Italy 1.35, USA 1.01
This match witnessed unexpected drama as both teams scored off free kicks, but the Americans secured a point in a match that could have gone either way.
June 22, 2006: No. 48 Ghana 2, USA 1
Total xG: Ghana 2.12, USA 1.33
The U.S. entered this match with hope but fell short against Ghana, conceding early and failing to recover, resulting in an early exit with just one commendable performance.
2010 World Cup
Throughout the 2010 tournament, it felt as if the Americans experienced an uneven mixture of luck. The stats later confirmed the bizarre outcomes, with no results making complete sense.
June 12, 2010: USA 1, No. 6 England 1
Total xG: England 1.93, USA 0.74
Entering the tournament as significant favorites, England started strong, but the U.S. pulled off a dramatic equalizer thanks to a goalkeeping howler, sealing a vital point.
June 18, 2010: USA 2, No. 25 Slovenia 2
Total xG: USA 1.12, Slovenia 0.67
After a poor first half, displaying resilience, the U.S. fought back with two impressive goals, though a crucial winner was disallowed under mysterious circumstances. The draw set the stage for a must-win match against Algeria.
June 23, 2010: USA 1, No. 30 Algeria 0
Total xG: USA 3.61, Algeria 1.05
The Americans faced a daunting match but finally broke the deadlock in stoppage time with a memorable goal from Donovan, setting the stage for a thrilling round of 16.
June 26, 2010: No. 32 Ghana 2, USA 1
Total xG: USA 2.40, Ghana 1.14
Though the game against Algeria brought joy, the subsequent knockout match ended in disappointment as the U.S. failed to capitalize on their chances, bowing out prematurely.
2014 World Cup
In a tough group during the 2014 World Cup, the Americans encountered challenges and some fortune. Benefitting from the situation, they made it past the group stage with due resilience.
June 16, 2014: USA 2, No. 37 Ghana 1
Total xG: Ghana 1.38, USA 0.98
Demonstrating that quality chances trump quantity, the U.S. scored two high-value goals early in the match, ultimately securing a solid win.
(Source: TruMedia)
June 22, 2014: USA 2, No. 4 Portugal 2
Total xG: USA 1.90, Portugal 1.79
A thrilling matchup against Portugal showcased a U.S. comeback from an early deficit, requiring them to remain resilient until the final minutes.
June 26, 2014: No. 2 Germany 1, USA 0
Total xG: Germany 1.26, USA 0.37
The U.S. managed to advance despite a weak showing, attempting just two shots until late in the match after Germany scored early in the second half.
July 1, 2014: No. 11 Belgium 2, USA 1
Total xG: Belgium 5.66, USA 2.29
In a heartbreaking exit, the U.S. squandered an opportunity to win, with a last-minute miss ultimately sealing their fate against Belgium.
2018 World Cup qualification
In the prior two World Cups, the U.S. had shown resilience against lesser teams, but they faced a crisis during the qualification for 2018.
U.S. vs. FIFA top 11 (four matches): 2 points, minus-2 goal differential, minus-5.3 xG differential
U.S. vs. everyone else (four matches): 7 points, plus-1 goal differential, plus-3.9 xG differential
Despite signs of stability, the qualification for the 2018 World Cup devolved into chaos with several unexpected setbacks.
Nov. 12, 2016: No. 17 Mexico 2, USA 1
Total xG: USA 0.84, Mexico 0.49
In a match that should have yielded a better outcome for the U.S., Mexico scored twice on low-percentage opportunities while the U.S. converted their lone high-value chance.
Nov. 16, 2016: No. 18 Costa Rica 4, USA 0
Total xG: Costa Rica 1.93, USA 0.25
A disastrous outing in San Jose that sunk the U.S. further in qualification, leaving them without a point after two matches and prompting leadership changes.
March 25, 2017: USA 6, No. 65 Honduras 0
Total xG: USA 2.07, Honduras 0.77
A decisive victory allowed the U.S. to regain footing in their qualification campaign.
March 29, 2017: USA 1, No. 53 Panama 1
Total xG: Panama 1.25, USA 0.90
The U.S. struggled to secure a win after a promising first half but dropped crucial points against a middling opponent.
June 9, 2017: USA 2, No. 77 Trinidad & Tobago 0
Total xG: USA 2.01, T&T 0.89
A strong showing against Trinidad & Tobago saw the U.S. bounce back, but the road remained rocky.
June 12, 2017: USA 1, No. 17 Mexico 1
Total xG: Mexico 0.77, USA 0.39
An early strike allowed the U.S. to secure a valuable draw on the road, improving their standing in qualification.
September 1, 2017: No. 21 Costa Rica 2, USA 0
Total xG: USA 1.15, Costa Rica 0.71
An unfortunate result where the U.S. failed to convert chances into goals, but they remained competitive.
September 5, 2017: USA 1, No. 75 Honduras 1
Total xG: USA 1.35, Honduras 0.68
This draw against Honduras was catastrophic, leaving the U.S. with lesser margins for error going forward in qualification.
October 6, 2017: USA 4, No. 60 Panama 0
Total xG: USA 3.59, Panama 0.53
The U.S. secured a commanding victory against Panama, sparking hope for qualification.
October 11, 2017: No. 99 Trinidad & Tobago 2, USA 1
Total xG: T&T 1.30, USA 0.73
The horrendous final match saw the U.S. eliminated, having been outplayed in a disappointing campaign that left them reflecting on lost opportunities.
2022 World Cup
After a qualification process that didn’t fully reflect their potential—the U.S. was the top side by xG differential but ended up on the same points as Costa Rica—they returned to the World Cup stage in 2022, with performances matching their underlying numbers.
Nov. 21, 2022: USA 1, No. 19 Wales 1
Total xG: Wales 1.55, USA 0.79
Ending in a draw, the U.S. took a lead early on but struggled to maintain control, conceding an equalizer late in the match. It highlighted missed opportunities for a decisive win.
Nov. 25, 2022: USA 0, No. 5 England 0
Total xG: England 0.77, USA 0.63
The Americans displayed resilience against a stronger English side while generating their own reasonable chances throughout.
Nov. 29, 2022: USA 1, No. 20 Iran 0
Total xG: USA 1.18, Iran 0.42
Breaking down this game yields two clear phases.
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In the opening 50 minutes, the U.S. fired 10 shots valued at 0.92 xG, holding Iran scoreless before taking the lead through a physical goal from Pulisic.
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In the final 40 minutes, Iran dominated possession with 64%, managing to generate four shots against a weary U.S. defense, but the Americans hung on for their first knockout stage since 2014.
Dec. 3, 2022: No. 8 Netherlands 3, USA 1
Total xG: Netherlands 1.67, USA 1.49
The U.S. conceded two early goals, but fought back in the second half and managed to generate a strong attack. However, missing early chances shaped the narrative more than the actual result.
2026 World Cup
As we assess the most recent World Cup amidst a 36-year journey, the U.S. approached its second hosting appearance with mixed results—a promising prior lineup gave way to less inspiring performances against top teams.
June 12, 2026: USA 4, No. 41 Paraguay 1
Total xG: USA 1.42, Paraguay 0.53
The U.S. established an early lead following an own goal and secured two additional strikes, producing a dominant performance against a capable opponent.
(Source: TruMedia)
Considering the context, this performance may stand as one of the finest from the U.S. squad in recent memory.
June 19, 2026: USA 2, No. 27 Australia 0
Total xG: USA 1.08, Australia 0.35
Another well-rounded win saw the U.S. find an early leap with another pressured own goal, capping off an effective 2-0 triumph.
June 25, 2026: No. 22 Türkiye 3, USA 2
Total xG: Türkiye 3.06, USA 2.13
Fielding a roster primarily composed of backups, the U.S. put in a solid effort until a late goal from Türkiye sealed the match, albeit under less significant circumstances.
July 1, 2026: USA 2, No. 64 Bosnia & Herzegovina 0
Total xG: USA 0.88, Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.25
Despite having fewer attempts, the U.S. sealed a comfortable victory thanks to Balogun’s impressive first-half finish, putting on a professionally disciplined performance.
July 6, 2026: No. 9 Belgium 4, USA 1
Total xG: Belgium 2.01, USA 0.63
The culmination of the tournament came with another disappointing match against Belgium, one they have become infamous for struggling against over the years.
In summary, the U.S. appeared at a crossroads after a series of underwhelming performances. Regression combined with injury and uncharacteristic pressure led to a frustrating end.
The USMNT’s True World Cup Narrative
This analysis aims to juxtapose prevailing narratives with statistical reality. While the U.S. has steadily funneled its players into elite European clubs post-2002, their World Cup output hasn’t paralleled that success. However, one can detect slow but tangible growth.
1990 and 1994 World Cups: average -1.7 xG differential per match
1998, 2002, and 2006: average -0.6
2010 and 2014: average -0.2
2022: average -0.1
2026: slightly above average at +0.2 (without counting the Türkiye match)
While one might argue that this growth is too gradual—especially given 2018’s failures—the U.S. has established itself as a competitive soccer nation.
Whether it can break into the elite ranks of Western Europe’s top football federations remains uncertain. Despite this, there has been notable progress made in the past 36 years.