Many fans talk about “second-season syndrome” — the idea that promoted teams who survive their first Premier League campaign often go down in the next. But how common is it really?
Last season Sunderland and Leeds became the 53rd and 54th promoted clubs to avoid relegation in the Premier League.
Of the previous 52 that stayed up, only 11 were relegated the following season (21%). In other words, most promoted teams that survive year one do not succumb to second-season syndrome.
That said, there is a precedent for a side with a debut as strong as Sunderland’s to go down in year two. In fact, the best-performing promoted team of the Premier League’s 38-game era did exactly that.
George Burley’s Ipswich finished the 2000–01 season fifth with 66 points — the highest placing and points tally achieved by a promoted side in a 38-game campaign.
But with European commitments the following year, they fell 13 places and collected 30 fewer points, finishing 18th and being relegated — with Sunderland surviving just one spot above them.
Overall, four of the last 20 promoted teams (20%) that secured a top-half finish in their first season were relegated in their second, most recently Sheffield United five years ago.