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Ryan O’Hanlon
This Sunday’s Clasico between Barcelona and Real Madrid could hinge on a variety of unpredictable factors.
A red card might emerge. A shot from Barcelona could hit the post and ricochet out, while a shot from Madrid might hit the same post and find the net. Barcelona’s high-press under Hansi Flick could overwhelm a Madrid team that struggled with it last season, or it could collapse like it did against Sevilla a few weeks back.
Madrid’s more controlled gameplay under Xabi Alonso might stifle Barcelona’s chaotic style, but a slower approach could falter in such a high-stakes match, as seen in the Madrid derby. Maybe Trent Alexander-Arnold will make a return from injury, benefitting either Real Madrid or Barcelona.
Soccer is a complex and dynamic sport where every variable is interconnected, leading to unpredictable outcomes. But amidst all this, Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal are set to play a pivotal role.
After a seven-year wait, it appears that El Clasico is witness to a modern-day rivalry resembling that of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. While neither matches the excellence of those two legends just yet, both represent their clubs’ current golden age.
Mbappé stands out as the established star, having run down his contract and signed with Real Madrid as a free agent. Meanwhile, Yamal is a promising teenage winger from La Masia whose rising influence has reinvigorated a Barcelona side that was floundering. Even though it’s early in the season, the two players are emerging as frontrunners for next year’s Ballon d’Or.
To simplify our analysis ahead of El Clasico this Sunday, let’s pose a straightforward question: Who would you prefer for the rest of this season — Mbappé or Yamal?
• Watch: El Clasico, Sunday, Oct. 26 — live on ESPN+ or on ESPN2
• Read: Clásico head-to-head, form, key clashes, predictions, odds
• Read: Are set pieces ruining the Premier League?
Mbappé vs. Yamal: Scoring
This section is straightforward.
Since the beginning of last season, Mbappé has netted 32 non-penalty goals in LaLiga, while Yamal has recorded 10. This points to the ongoing debate around Yamal’s omission from the Ballon d’Or shortlist last month as unwarranted. He’s an attacker who scored just nine non-penalty goals last season while also squandering several chances to reach that tally.
Here’s a graph comparing every LaLiga player’s shots to their non-penalty expected-goal (xG) total:
The x-axis illustrates the number of shots taken, while the y-axis shows the expected goals. Players above the line are deemed to be taking higher-quality shots than their shot volume suggests; those below are typically taking lower-quality shots.
As illustrated, Mbappé is at the top for attempts and ranks second in expected goals. Comparatively, Yamal occupies the second spot for shots taken but lags significantly in generating expected goals, which indicates a tendency to attempt lower-quality shots.
Reviewing Yamal’s shot map illustrates the quality of his attempts — larger circles indicate higher xG shots:
Furthermore, Yamal has yet to establish himself as a reliable finisher, converting just 10.8 expected goals into 10 actual goals. Conversely, Mbappé is renowned for his finishing ability, consistently surpassing his xG total by at least 2.0 goals for the past seven seasons according to FBref.
In summary, Yamal still has a considerable journey ahead to be in the same conversation as elite goal scorers, whereas Mbappé has already earned his place among the all-time greats.
Edge: Mbappé
Mbappé vs. Yamal: Creating
This comparison also seems clear cut.
Yamal has tallied 17 assists since last season, the highest in LaLiga, while Mbappé follows behind with just five assists—tied for fifth within his own squad alongside Lucas Vázquez, who now competes for Bayer Leverkusen.
However, the margin is closer when we factor in expected assists (xA), which assess the likelihood of a pass resulting in a goal. By that metric, Yamal still leads, though Mbappé climbs into the top 10.
From a traditional passing perspective, Yamal emerges as the more dangerous creator. He consistently transforms semi-dangerous plays into high-quality scoring opportunities for teammates with his technical skills and vision.
Nonetheless, Mbappé’s off-ball movement allows him to receive the ball in crucial areas, making straightforward passes that create significant chances for others, albeit he falls short of Yamal’s level of creativity.
Edge: Yamal
Mbappé vs. Yamal: Buildup Play
This segment encompasses all actions during possession not directly related to scoring or passes leading to a goal.
One method of evaluating this is through Stats Perform’s expected possession value (xPV), which gauges how much an on-ball action enhances a team’s odds of scoring. By this measure, Yamal excels, trailing only his teammate Pedri in terms of open-play xPV in LaLiga since last season:
This metric is noteworthy because penalty-area players typically rank low in xPV, primarily due to limited involvement beyond scoring. For context, Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski, who finished second behind Mbappé with 27 goals last season, has a negative xPV.
However, Mbappé proves valuable in buildup play in two key ways: first by advancing the ball into the attacking third (he ranks among the top players in Europe for this) and second by serving as an outlet for forward passes, drawing defenders away for teammates to exploit space.
This chart illustrates the comparative effectiveness of LaLiga players in increasing scoring chances with their passing:
Despite Yamal’s superior xPV, both players contribute positively to their teams’ scoring opportunities.
Edge: Yamal
Mbappé vs. Yamal: Defending
For this analysis, let’s utilize Gradient Sports and their grading system, which evaluates player performances with a neutral, positive, or negative mark for almost all actions on the field, subsequently adjusting these grades based on overall performance.
Here’s an examination of Yamal’s defensive metrics:
He remains relatively average across the board.
Yet, for someone with such offensive contributions, this is unusual compared to Mbappé’s ratings:
Among forwards with at least 90 minutes of play in LaLiga this season, Mbappé ranks last in successful pressures, achieving just 23.
It’s important to note that this statistic reflects every 30 minutes out of possession, accounting for Real Madrid’s strong possession of 63.4% this season.
Yamal, in contrast, ranks adequately for wingers with his 45 pressures. While one might argue that Yamal’s increased pressure is due to playing for the high-press Barcelona unit, that’s precisely the point: having Yamal enables such an aggressive pressing style, whereas Mbappé does not.
Edge: Yamal
Mbappé vs. Yamal: Final Verdict
The core comparison boils down to this: which factor weighs more heavily — Mbappé’s minimal defensive engagement or Yamal’s goal drought and frequent possession waste?
In a 2009 piece for The New York Times Magazine, Michael Lewis profiled Houston Rockets forward Shane Battier in an article titled “The No-Stats All-Star.” The overarching theme was that, although Battier didn’t accumulate traditional stats nor stand out visually, his teams consistently performed better with him on the court.
Lewis noted the inherent conflict present in basketball — where players must choose between maximizing personal stats and contributing to team wins — a decision-making complexity that doesn’t exist in baseball or football.
To summarize, there are aspects where both Mbappé and Yamal pursue actions that may benefit their scoring opportunities but do not necessarily strengthen their team’s winning chances.
While failing to take a shot could result in missing out on a potential goal, each long-range attempt by Yamal limits both his chances and those of his talented teammates to generate higher-quality chances. This is exacerbated by his current inability to convert these efforts successfully.
Conversely, Mbappé’s lack of pressing allows him to conserve energy for offensive maneuvers, potentially increasing his goal-scoring output. However, it also complicates Madrid’s defending and attacking, lessening the likelihood of high-pressure turnover situations that could yield quality chances. This reinforces sentiments from my previously published article in April, titled “How Kylian Mbappé made Real Madrid worse.”
Nevertheless, we saw Liverpool‘s Mohamed Salah flourish in a drastically reformed tactical setup under their new coach, Arne Slot. Salah noted that with defensive compensations granted, he could focus solely on offensive contributions.
Mbappé plays a role akin to a right-footed Salah, a winger who effectively operates within the penalty area. Such players are crucial for securing titles. Therefore, the regression of Madrid last season can be attributed to both squad deficiencies under former manager Carlo Ancelotti and Mbappé’s influence. With the appropriate personnel, Mbappé can easily net upward of 25 non-penalty goals and add 10 assists for a well-rounded, defensively adept team.
As for Yamal, he hasn’t yet achieved double-digit goal tallies in a season. His current gameplay is mesmerizing, combining a unique gracefulness with an athletic physique reminiscent of a running back. It’s akin to a hybrid of Lionel Messi’s finesse and Steven Gerrard’s stature.
Ultimately, goals determine victories. Until Yamal begins to elevate his scoring rate and shot selection, the final edge remains with Mbappé.