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Bill Connelly
The new Champions League format features no groups and a single massive, 36-team table, prompting complaints about the week-to-week stakes being unclear—a valid concern. But as we reach the midpoint of the 2025-26 Champions League league phase after four matchdays, we’ve witnessed significant shifts since the competition started a few months ago.
Liverpool has faced challenges, but their recent victory over Real Madrid suggests they may be getting back on track. Arsenal continues to bolster their chances for a Premier League-Champions League double. Bayern Munich is demonstrating that winning consistently translates to trophies, and across the board, Europe’s elite are asserting themselves far more effectively than last year, with teams like Real Madrid or PSG not at risk of missing out on the top 24 finish.
As we highlight the noteworthy developments from this week’s Matchday 4, let’s examine what has shifted in the competition since its launch.
Teams with Rising Stock
While four matches may not drastically alter a team’s standing, many have seen noticeable improvements. Of the 36 teams in the league phase, 18 have point projections close to their early September estimates. For instance, Monaco’s expectations remain unchanged at 10.1 projected points.
However, nine teams have positively adjusted their expectations and odds.
Notably, most of these teams are heavyweights. Last year’s league phase forced renowned squads like PSG and Manchester City into recovery arcs to secure knockout stages, facing more daunting draws as a consequence. This time, it appears that top teams are taking care of business earlier on. All top 10 teams in the Opta rankings are currently 12th or higher in the Champions League standings. Despite the occasional stumbles of Chelsea, Barcelona, and Liverpool, many elite teams remain assertive.
Bayern and Arsenal have particularly distinguished themselves as the top squads in the competition. Bayern remains unbeaten across all matches, while Arsenal has lost only to Liverpool in the Premier League. They have outscored their Champions League opponents 25-3, including Bayern’s recent victory over PSG.
– UCL Talking Points: Bayern Dominance, Van de Ven’s Goal
– Liverpool’s Revival with Win over Madrid
– Foden’s Case for England World Cup Spot
Bayern and Arsenal’s success has also contributed to projected improvements for their leagues. Bundesliga teams have averaged a 2.0 point increase in expected totals due to Bayern’s and Borussia Dortmund‘s strong performances, while English teams have similarly increased their averages by 1.7 points, aided by three of the five teams prominently displayed here.