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Ryan O’Hanlon
Let me be clear: I firmly believe that leveraging data can significantly enhance a team’s chances of winning soccer matches.
Yes, I’m aware that this might raise eyebrows coming from the individual who authored a book about the nascent analytics movement in soccer, moderated discussions on the subject at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference for several years, and likely articulated “expected” in the context of goals and assists over a thousand times on this platform.
One of the primary benefits of utilizing objective data to inform decisions within a soccer club is that American sports have advanced significantly in this area. By observing successful teams in those sports, soccer clubs can glean insights and adapt strategies without any repercussions for borrowing ideas. It’s as if the answers to the exam are available for study.
Nonetheless, there are cautionary tales here, particularly about potential pitfalls when teams universally embrace data-driven strategies. In certain American leagues, seasoned players have found themselves edged out as teams become increasingly aware of how aging impacts performance.
In baseball—where nearly every franchise is now managed by data-savvy individuals equipped with Ivy League degrees and backed by vast datasets—players who were once considered prominent but not superstars often get less monetary recognition. This shift stems from teams becoming adept at measuring micro-level metrics such as launch angles and pitch spin rates, leading them to hunt for less expensive players that they can optimize instead.
Soccer hasn’t arrived at that juncture. Interestingly, players are beginning to utilize data to bolster their bargaining positions in contract discussions against clubs that still largely view statistics with skepticism or only utilize them to validate preexisting beliefs.
However, there is one domain where soccer occasionally mirrors the data-optimized realm of Major League Baseball: teams are gradually recognizing the importance of unconventional methods to increase scoring opportunities from set-pieces such as free kicks, corners, and throw-ins. If this trend persists and becomes commonplace, it could negatively impact the essence of the sport.
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The Impact of Moneyball on Baseball
There’s always been a complex relationship between winning and entertaining fans, especially in soccer. Coaches like Jurgen Klopp openly acknowledge their duty to deliver captivating experiences for supporters, while others, like Jose Mourinho, have revelled in securing wins through less appealing tactics.
This dichotomy isn’t unique to soccer; it extends across all sports. These multimillion-dollar organizations must captivate fans; without entertainment, fan engagement wanes, resulting in diminished franchise values. And if franchises lose value, why should we prioritize dissecting the scientific nuances of winning?
This isn’t a theoretical discussion; it took place in baseball. Teams built extensive front offices filled with quantitative experts striving for marginal gains. Baseball, a game invented in the 19th century as a diversion from cricket, wasn’t meant to withstand the scrutiny of analytical science.
Consequently, teams recognized that pitchers needed to focus on securing strikeouts to minimize unpredictable outcomes once the ball was in play. Simultaneously, they discovered that walks were undervalued and began promoting home runs to further mitigate unpredictability.
However, as these foundational strategies gained traction, baseball transformed dramatically. The element of uncertainty diminished, morphing into a game primarily characterized by walks, strikeouts, or home runs. Superfluous action faded, leaving many players mere spectators in the contest.
This situation led Major League Baseball to appoint Theo Epstein, a former analytics-focused general manager, to revitalize the game and restore its excitement. Changes were implemented to hasten the pace of games and reinvigorate offensive play, successfully bringing viewers back.
As more teams in the Premier League acknowledge the significance of set pieces and throw-ins, could history repeat itself?
The Value of Set Pieces
Many analytical breakthroughs in various sports seem obvious in hindsight: walks equal hits, a three-pointer holds greater value than a two-pointer, and touchdowns outweigh field goals.
Soccer’s equivalent of these revelations could be represented by the advanced stat xG (expected goals): attempts closer to the goal significantly increase scoring chances. Consider the evolution of shot selection:
While this shift may not mirror the jaw-dropping strikes of past highlights, improved shot selection enhances the game’s quality. For every stunning goal reminiscent of Michael Essien’s thunderbolts, we must endure countless attempts that go wide. However, I’m not convinced this evolution is solely analytics-driven; tactical developments may simply align with established analytical principles.
The same can’t be said for set pieces—corners, free kicks, and throw-ins. Analysts have long sung their praises, and while my writing has echoed this sentiment since the 2010s, their value has been substantiated by data and real-world results.
In the 2014-15 season, FC Midtjylland, under the ownership of Matthew Benham (current Brentford owner), netted 25 goals from set pieces—more than any other team in the league—and clinched their first league title. A few seasons later, they repeated the feat, scoring 25 times in dead-ball situations, yet now faced stiffer competition as several other teams caught up.
For a long time, coaches traditionally overlooked set plays, assuming that focusing on them would detract from possession practice. However, that assumption doesn’t hold true, according to statistics from Denmark. Over the span from 2014-15 to 2017-18, goals from set pieces increased from 0.55 to 0.75 per game, while overall goals rose from 2.41 to 2.91.
“It pointed to a huge under-exploited tactical facet in the game that could provide teams the competitive edge to clinch titles,” noted Ted Knutson, who played a role in Midtjylland’s set-piece strategy. “And it’s replicable across the sport.”
Even teams that don’t dedicate themselves to mastering set pieces show that they can yield results. In 2018, Paul Power presented a paper at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference indicating that goals from open play occur 1.1% of the time, while set plays yield results 1.8% of the time.
1:20
Slot: We lose games by set pieces, we have to improve.
Arne Slot reflects on Liverpool’s performances and explains Fredrico Chiesai’s absence ahead of the Galatasaray match.
“Taking a shot from a set piece essentially doubles your chances of scoring,” noted Power, who currently works with SkillCorner, a sports analytics firm.
Every goal from open play is a remarkable feat—requiring a blend of technical and psychological precision. Attackers must execute fluid solutions amidst chaos without the luxury of using their hands. Defenders are left guessing the attackers’ intentions, just as attackers are unaware of their teammates’ predetermined plans.
Conversely, set pieces bring structure. The game halts, allowing teams to implement their strategies while attackers coordinate their moves. Unlike the fluid and unpredictable nature of regular play, dead-ball situations enable teams to execute a collective plan, making efficient scoring opportunities more likely.
With the right game plan, the potential for success from set pieces can be substantial.
How Set Pieces Elevated Arsenal’s Status
The current Premier League leaders invested heavily in a striker this past summer, yet Viktor Gyökeres has underperformed: just two non-penalty goals in eight matches, coupled with shot metrics that provide little hope of improvement.
Fortunately for Arsenal, they possess another top-tier forward—not that of Kai Havertz. According to both Knutson and Power, an effective set-piece strategy can rival the impact of a stellar striker.
“Currently, teams achieve about 0.30 to 0.35 goals per game from set pieces,” Knutson remarked back in 2019. “Top teams can elevate this output to 0.75 or 0.80. This level of productivity could make a typical Premier League forward as impactful as someone like Neymar, but without the hefty payroll.”
So far this season, Arsenal has netted eight goals through set plays. Only Erling Haaland boasts a higher goals-per-game average than Arsenal’s set plays. This success isn’t a new trend; last year, they scored 15 set-piece goals, with no single player exceeding nine. The season before, they tallied 20, with none scoring more than ten non-penalty goals.
Arsenal’s open-play goal rate resembles that of a Europa League team, yet their proficiency from set pieces distinguishes them from their counterparts. Under Mikel Arteta’s stewardship, the Gunners have evolved into a formidable defensive unit, nearly going five consecutive hours in the Premier League without conceding a shot on target.
When in possession, Arsenal often opts for long balls from goalkeeper David Raya or engages in a patient buildup that minimizes counterattack risks.
This cohesive approach yields a beneficial cycle: Arsenal’s set-piece success enables a cautious defensive style, shielding their goal while making the set-piece goals even more impactful.
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool present a contrasting style to Arteta’s Arsenal. Nevertheless, a significant factor in their success was adopting a serious approach to set pieces. They led the Big Five European leagues in set-piece goals during the 2018-19 season.
If teams are not actively devising strategies to yield 15 to 20 set-piece goals in a season, they may well be falling short in their quest for victory.
The Potential Downside of Set Plays in the Premier League
What occurs when every team maximizes their competitive edge?
A longstanding debate over the “right way to play” soccer arises from the sport’s tactical trade-offs.
“I’ve previously discussed the ‘short blanket’,” reflected former Newcastle manager Rafa Benitez, “If you cover your head, your feet get cold, and vice versa. Striking the right balance is essential.”
This often morphs into moral discussions, suggesting that some teams fulfill a higher calling by pursuing a specific playing style. This admiration stems from the strategic and risk-laden plays that lead to scoring, as they add excitement to the narratives woven into the sport.
But what happens if every team recognizes the significance of set plays? Does it devalue more aggressive plays?
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Arteta explains the significance of set pieces.
Mikel Arteta discusses the impact of corners and free kicks following a recent win against Fulham.
If set pieces yield a higher scoring probability than open-play attacks, why risk high-stakes dribbling through tight defenses or pushing fullbacks upfield? Would it not be more strategic to maintain possession, creating opportunities for forced fouls or throw-ins that could lead to set plays, or taking low-risk long-range shots in hopes of corner kicks?
If this becomes a prevailing mindset, the vibrant, energetic nature of soccer risks being transformed into a set-piece-centered game, potentially leading to diminished engagement as teams focus more on churning out set plays rather than embracing the unpredictability of free-flowing action.
If soccer were to develop along these lines, I’d likely be out of a job, and the Premier League’s television rights wouldn’t carry a billion-dollar price tag. Yet, through the first eight weeks of this season, the Premier League has exhibited tendencies aligned with this shift. While teams haven’t fully embraced data for personnel or tactical decisions, the significance of set pieces has risen dramatically.
Currently, Premier League teams are averaging 429 pass attempts per match, the lowest figure since the 2010-11 season. Moreover, they are averaging just 12.1 shots per game, the least since the inception of the Stats Perform database in 2008-09.
A key factor here is the ball’s persistent lack of active play. Prior to last weekend’s matches, the ball had only been in play for 54% of the designated time—projecting to be the lowest figure over the past decade.
This reduced active play correlates with the growing significance of set pieces, particularly regarding throw-ins. Instead of promptly reinitiating play, more teams are opting to deliver the ball into the box, transforming simple throw-ins into viable goal-scoring opportunities. This strategy mandates a coordinated team effort, necessitating players to gather and strategize.
In the first eight matches, the record for shot attempts from throw-ins has been set. Of course, it’s worth noting that the first two seasons in the accompanying data saw a notable uptick owing to Rory Delap’s famous throw-ins while at Stoke City:
Despite the surge in throw-in attempts, the Premier League hasn’t mirrored the successes witnessed in Denmark. While set-piece goals have increased, they seem to have siphoned off the total from open-play goals. This season has recorded the least number of open-play goals through eight weeks:
In essence, we’ve spent recent months watching a season defined by reduced active play, fewer passing attempts than ever recorded, and a scarcity of attempts that taps into individual artistry or collaborative brilliance. Most goals are now the result of strategic throw-ins or opportunistic set plays.
It’s likely that trends will shift back as they tend to do. Last season, clubs set a record for total goals, and significant investments in new offensive players have occurred. The current scoring lull could be attributed to these new arrivals taking time to build synergy.
Perhaps we’ll finish the season agreeing that Erling Haaland stands as the lone world-class attacker in the Premier League. While he currently exemplifies that caliber, it’s hard to fathom that a league so vibrant and deep could suddenly lack star talent and goal-scorers. In many instances, teams and players solve their challenges simply by improving performance, with countless athletes capable of doing just that as the season progresses.
Yet the elevated focus on set pieces is likely a trend that won’t recede. Throw-ins have swiftly emerged as potent tools in the arsenal of teams. Arsenal continues to assert dominance in the league, boasting a greater than 50% probability of capturing the title. The disparity between Arsenal’s open-play performance and their overall prowess creates a necessity for other teams to acknowledge the importance of set plays.
Expert consensus indicates that there remains significant room for teams to refine their execution and strategy in this area. Hence, set pieces are not just a passing trend; they are poised to become even more prevalent over the coming seasons. Should that materialize, let us hope that the thrill of open-play goals resurfaces, allowing the Premier League to resemble Denmark’s model—where goals from set pieces enhance competitive advantage rather than replace the dazzling moments that define soccer’s allure.
If not, it might lead to a scenario where someone at the Premier League will need to ring Theo Epstein for insights on how to inject excitement back into the game.