Viewing sports through the lens of betting adds layers of context to every event. Injuries that shift the course of a season, record-breaking achievements, and a myriad of other developments all significantly influence the sports betting landscape.
Our betting buzz file, featuring insights from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg, and others, seeks to shed light on the sports betting narratives that are shaping discussions among fans.
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Dec. 6: Spain and England maintain World Cup favorites status; USA poses a major risk for sportsbooks
Doug Greenberg: The FIFA World Cup landscape is starting to solidify, with American sportsbooks bracing for what is expected to be their busiest tournament yet.
After Friday’s World Cup draw, Spain held firm in the lead with +450 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. England followed closely at +550, an uptick from +600 earlier in the day, and France sat at +750, down from +700 that morning. Argentina and Brazil completed the top five, both at +800.
With sportsbooks having set these odds shortly after the conclusion of the previous World Cup, they have had ample time to adjust and refine them as bettors have placed their wagers.
“We already have a good sense of our liabilities,” said Johnny Avello, director at DraftKings Sportsbook, to ESPN. “It’s beneficial to have odds up long before the matchups because it allows us to understand where we stand financially.”
Thus, Avello and other bookmakers did not anticipate significant shifts in futures odds due to the draw, especially for the frontrunners. However, some mid-tier teams did see adjustments; Belgium improved from +5000 to +4000, while Uruguay, facing Spain in a challenging group, slipped from +5000 to +6500. Ecuador, Morocco, and Switzerland also increased their odds from 100-1 to +8000 based on draw results.
“We could witness some adjustments at the top following the draw,” said Adam Landeka, vice president of sportsbook growth & strategy at theScore Bet. “The group allocations will help us predict potential matchups for the knockout rounds and indicate which teams have easier pathways and which face tougher matches as the tournament progresses.”
Tom Pullin, a sports trader for BetMGM, also pointed out that the newly expanded format, which includes third-place teams advancing from the group stage, might influence both futures and individual match odds. “More teams could introduce more parity in the odds,” he noted.
Most of the early betting action has gravitated towards Spain, which has attracted 43% of bets and 35% of the total handle at DraftKings. BetMGM reported a similar trend, with Spain receiving the highest percentage of both tickets and money. Other favorites among bettors include England, France, and Portugal.
However, the standout liability for U.S. sportsbooks is the United States team, which is drawing considerable support from local fans. With long odds of +8000 at DraftKings, a U.S. victory would result in significant payouts for the sportsbooks.
“If the U.S. clinches the championship, it could lead to substantial liabilities for us,” Avello mentioned. “The American public tends to bet on the U.S. whenever they play, and if they advance far, we could face significant outcomes. We’re okay with that though; we want them to do well. We know the implications of the U.S. performing well in a World Cup.”
Avello also highlighted that the U.S. could see even more betting volume, especially since the upcoming tournament will occur on home soil. Coupled with the expanding interest in soccer stateside, the 2026 World Cup is poised to become the most wagered tournament in American betting history.
Dec. 5: LeBron James’ 10-point streak termination a setback for some bettors, a relief for others
David Purdum: LeBron James’ impressive nearly 18-year streak of scoring at least 10 points per game ended on Thursday, resulting in a financial blow for some bettors and a sense of relief for others who had been frequently wagering substantial amounts for minimal returns on the superstar’s continued scoring.
At DraftKings, the odds for James scoring at least 10 points against the Toronto Raptors were set at -2600, meaning a bettor would need to risk $2,600 for a chance to win a net $100. DraftKings confirmed receiving a $15,000 wager at these odds, hoping for a payout of $576.92.
James closed the game with eight points after he drove toward the paint but chose to pass to Rui Hachimura, who secured a game-winning three-pointer just as time expired. This marked the first time since January 5, 2007, that James did not reach double figures, ending a streak of 1,297 games. As a result, the $15,000 bet was lost.
A user named Bryce, who posts under the handle @BryceLottos, shared a screenshot of the $15,000 bet along with a message stating, “LeBron James scored 10+ points in 1,297 consecutive regular season games. Then I bet on him.”
Bryce, who preferred to be known just by his first name, mentioned that this was his second time betting on the James prop. Others had been betting on it for a considerable time before.
Chris J., a professional bettor who wished to remain anonymous, recounted that he had routinely wagered large sums on James scoring 10 points repeatedly last season but decided to refrain from betting as the season began, acknowledging that “LeBron was looking rough” after missing training camp and dealing with sciatica. He returned in mid-November but opted not to risk significant amounts any longer.
Online sportsbook theScore Bet listed James to score at least 10 points on Thursday against the Raptors at -5000 odds. This prop was among their most wagered non-NFL player props, with live betting also placing it highly among all events except for “Thursday Night Football,” accounting for 18% of all NBA player props that night, according to a spokesperson.
Dec. 3: Patriots and Bears defy expectations, drawing Super Bowl wagers
Doug Greenberg: As the NFL heads into Week 14, the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears sit at the top of their respective playoff brackets, a surprising turnaround from preseason predictions.
Initially, the Patriots had +145 odds, and the Bears were at +175 just to make the playoffs. Now, New England is off DraftKings’ playoff odds board — the only team in the league to hold this distinction — implying a near guarantee of their playoff position, while Chicago currently sits with -310 odds for a playoff berth, which aligns with ESPN’s Football Power Index predicting a 76% chance.
Bookmakers are typically cautious in adjusting power ratings, especially at this stage of the season, and appropriately have yet to crown the Patriots and Bears as champions.
New England is currently favored to win the AFC at +400, yet those odds are among the longest the team has seen in December over the last 15 years, as noted by ESPN Research. The Buffalo Bills (+425) and Denver Broncos remain close contenders for the conference title. Notably, despite leading the conference, Chicago is ranked seventh in NFC odds at +1500.
Nonetheless, bettors have shown significant support for both the Patriots and the Bears.
In the past week, these two teams garnered the highest betting volume for the Super Bowl at DraftKings, accounting for 37% of total handle, while Chicago captured the most overall bets (16%). BetMGM reported that the Bears have been the most backed team to win the Super Bowl since their unexpected Black Friday victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, which included a substantial $50,000 bet with +6600 odds that would yield a $3.3 million payout if successful.
Both teams have also emerged as the most popular wagers to secure their respective conference titles in the past week, as indicated by DraftKings.
In contrast, many preseason Super Bowl favorites are now struggling to qualify for the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, previously top championship contenders, now hold uncertain playoff odds, at +120 and +115, respectively.
Week 14 promises several key matchups that could significantly impact postseason dynamics, including a Thursday night face-off for Detroit against the Dallas Cowboys and a Sunday night clash where Kansas City faces the Houston Texans.