The road to the 2025-26 Champions League final is set, with some of Europe’s elite clubs gearing up for an exciting showdown on the way to the Puskas Arena in Budapest. Among the highlights is another epic encounter between Real Madrid and Manchester City next month, while reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain will face off against Chelsea, who defeated them in last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup final.
In the Silver Path, both of these matchups are joined by Bayern Munich, Atalanta, Liverpool, and Galatasaray, with only one team from this group able to advance to the final.
The Blue Path features fewer previous winners, with contenders such as Barcelona, Newcastle, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Bodo/Glimt, Sporting CP, Atletico Madrid, and Tottenham hoping for a shot at glory.
The round of 16 first legs are on the horizon, taking place from March 10-11, with the second legs scheduled for March 17-18. So, how will these exciting matchups unfold?
SILVER PATH
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea
This is a clash between the European and world champions, fueled by a fierce rivalry that has developed over the past two decades. PSG may not have performed as well this season compared to last, but with Ousmane Dembele and Fabian Ruiz returning from injury, their squad is nearing full strength. The only absentee is goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, now with Manchester City. PSG will be eager for revenge after their defeat in last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup final, and with coach Liam Rosenior up against the experienced Luis Enrique, this matchup likely favors PSG.
Though Chelsea boasts talent, they’re not operating on the same level as PSG and will struggle to compete over two matches.
Winners: PSG
Galatasaray vs. Liverpool
Galatasaray secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Liverpool last September with a penalty from Victor Osimhen, which was part of a rough stretch of four consecutive defeats for Arne Slot’s squad.
While Galatasaray excels at home, having recently beaten Juventus 5-2 in a playoff fixture, their away form in Europe has faltered, with only one win in England (a victory over Manchester United in November 2023).
Despite their inconsistency this season, Liverpool will be favored to advance, provided they don’t suffer a substantial loss in Turkey. Osimhen could pose a challenge, and Galatasaray’s lineup of former Premier League players, like Leroy Sane and Ilkay Gundogan, might help them break their English jinx.
Winners: Liverpool
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
The past four seasons have seen these two giants clash repeatedly, making their upcoming encounter less of a surprise. Both teams would view an exit in the round of 16 as a major setback given their lofty aspirations, making this tie too close to call. Historically, City and Real have matched each other with five wins apiece and five draws, meaning this will come down to who can best handle the opposing stars.
Kylian Mbappe boasts seven goals against City in seven games, while Erling Haaland has netted three in six against Real, but he hasn’t scored in their last four meetings. Haaland’s match against Antonio Rudiger could be pivotal; if Rudiger prevails once more, Real Madrid may secure advancement.
Winners: Real Madrid
Atalanta vs. Bayern Munich
Atalanta made history by ensuring Italian football had representation in the round of 16 for the first time, dramatically overturning a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Borussia Dortmund. However, they face a formidable challenge in Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich, who are a different caliber than Dortmund. While Atalanta certainly has the potential to surprise, it’s hard to see them making it through against a Bayern team that is strong across the board.
With Harry Kane as a significant goal threat and the return of Jamal Musiala from injury, Bayern has been ruthless in previous knockout rounds and will expect to comfortably advance.
Winners: Bayern Munich
BLUE PATH
Newcastle United vs. Barcelona
Barcelona triumphed 2-1 over Newcastle at St James’ Park in their league meeting last September, setting the stage for Hansi Flick’s team with positive memories of their previous visit to the northeast of England.
Newcastle will be without key players like Bruno Guimaraes and Fabian Schar due to injuries, placing them at a disadvantage in this tie. Although Barcelona’s high defensive line might be vulnerable against the likes of Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga, the Spanish side is likely to have the upper hand overall.
With the second leg at Camp Nou, Newcastle must secure a strong first-leg lead, which will be a significant challenge.
Winners: Barcelona
Atletico Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Having only faced off once before, where Tottenham triumphed 5-1 in the 1963 European Cup-Winners’ Cup final, this matchup presents a fresh challenge for Spurs. Despite winning the Europa League last season, Tottenham’s lackluster domestic performances—in which they remain winless in the league this year—make them appear vulnerable against Diego Simeone’s squad.
This clash may seem like an exciting matchup on paper, but it could unfold as a one-sided affair. Although Atletico may not be as intimidating as in previous years, with players like Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez, as well as the experienced Antoine Griezmann, they should comfortably win.
Winners: Atletico Madrid
Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP
The Bodø/Glimt fairytale continues as Kjetil Knutsen’s team prepares for a strong chance of reaching the quarterfinals after avoiding a matchup with Manchester City—whom they defeated 3-1 last month—and instead drawing Sporting.
Bodø has previously beaten City and Inter on home turf and won crucial away matches against Atletico Madrid and Inter in the Champions League second leg at San Siro. With standout players like Jens Petter Hauge and Håkon Evjen, they will enter the competition without fear against Sporting.
However, it’s worth noting that Sporting had a top-eight finish in the league phase and even defeated PSG, making them a formidable opponent. Still, with momentum on their side and a unique home pitch in the Arctic, expect Bodø to come through.
Winners: Bodø/Glimt
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Arsenal
Under coach Kasper Hjulmand, Leverkusen has bounced back well this season after a rough tenure under former Manchester United coach Erik ten Hag, although they still sit outside the Champions League spots. Despite having notable scorers like Patrik Schick, they have lost key players from Xabi Alonso’s 2023-24 title-winning side and may struggle against Premier League leaders Arsenal.
This matchup is favorable for Mikel Arteta’s team, who should be able to make a strong impact in the first leg in Germany. With the pathway less challenging compared to the Silver Path, Arsenal can look toward potential semifinal appearances, especially since they could face Bodø/Glimt or Sporting in the next round.
Winners: Arsenal
PREDICTING THE REMAINDER OF THE TOURNAMENT
With a clearer path laid out in both the Silver and Blue sections, who will emerge in Budapest vying for the Champions League title come late May?
The Blue Path appears set for a Barcelona-Arsenal semifinal; however, due to Arsenal’s fatigue from competing against Manchester City in the Premier League, Barcelona may just hold the advantage and reach the final.
The Silver Path is trickier to predict due to a number of closely matched round of 16 ties, but based on previous insights, I foresee a semifinal showdown between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, with Bayern Munich ultimately advancing to face Barcelona in the final.
Once again, a potentialClasico final featuring Real Madrid and Barcelona feels tantalizingly close yet ultimately unattainable!