Cristiano Ronaldo is rapidly approaching the incredible milestone of 1,000 career goals. It appears to be a matter of “when,” not “if,” as the forward for Portugal and Al-Nassr closes in on this achievement.
Currently at 950 goals following his recent performance in a 2-0 victory against Al Hazm, Ronaldo signed a new two-year deal with Saudi Pro League team Al-Nassr in June, committing to the club until the end of the 2026-27 season.
Unless he faces a significant injury, it seems inevitable that the 40-year-old will reach his 1,000th goal during this contract period. With Ronaldo maintaining a scoring rate of nearly one goal per game at Al-Nassr, our analysis indicates—with help from ESPN’s Global Sports Research—that he is likely to achieve this milestone before 2026 concludes, with predictions pointing towards late November or early December.
What leads us to this conclusion? In the world of football, few outcomes are guaranteed, yet Ronaldo’s knack for finding the back of the net for both club and country has been a consistent and reliable aspect of his career. This streak started with his first goal at 17 years old for Sporting CP in a Champions League qualifying match against Moreirense on October 7, 2002.
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Now, over two decades later, Ronaldo holds a 39-goal lead over Lionel Messi as the all-time leading scorer in men’s international football, with 143 goals. His latest contributions were both goals in Portugal’s recent 2-1 World Cup qualifying win against Hungary, and many speculate that he could reach 150 international goals during the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Messi, who recently signed a three-year contract with Inter Miami ensuring his stay until the end of the 2028 season, might also reach the 1,000-goal mark before retirement. The 38-year-old has accrued 889 career goals with Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Inter Miami, and Argentina. Nonetheless, with Ronaldo currently leading by 60 goals, it raises the question of whether Messi can catch up before Ronaldo reaches the milestone. The answer is an emphatic no.
Since his debut for Sporting as a substitute against Inter Milan in August 2002, Ronaldo has achieved 950 goals in 1,293 matches, translating to a career goal ratio of 0.73 per game. While Messi is a distant competitor in the race to 1,000 career goals, it raises the question of whether Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, or Lamine Yamal could surpass whatever total Ronaldo achieves in the future.
While Yamal, at just 18, has plenty of time, his current rate of 0.24 goals per game (33 goals in 137 matches) would require him a couple of decades to approach Ronaldo’s numbers. Haaland and Mbappé, boasting ratios of 0.84 and 0.74 goals respectively, have both scored 324 and 396 career goals, respectively. Yet, the chances of either player committing to a career extending beyond 40 years to catch up with Ronaldo seems highly unlikely.
Remarkably, Ronaldo is now scoring at a pace that exceeds his career average, with his latest 100 goals coming at a rate of 0.92 per 90 minutes and the last 50 at 0.93 per 90 minutes.
Transitioning to the Saudi Pro League and AFC Champions League seems to have made scoring more manageable, as indicated by the swift accumulation of 50 goals within just 57 matches for Al-Nassr and Portugal. Despite this, he has still outscored other notable players in the Pro League this season, including Karim Benzema, Darwin Núñez, Ivan Toney, and Kingsley Coman.
Based on his current prolific scoring rate and his consistent performance for both club and country, ESPN predicts that Ronaldo will reach the 1,000-goal mark in approximately 13 months. This timeline is similar to the duration it took him to score the last 50 goals. Looking ahead, that gives him around 54-64 matches to net the next 50 goals, especially if he enjoys a successful tenure in the AFC Champions League and a strong World Cup next summer.
For those eager to mark a date for Ronaldo’s milestone achievement, set your calendars for late November and early December next year.