Does Brazil Have a Plan?…

Following the first four round-of-32 matches in World Cup history, we all found ourselves pondering the same question:

What in the world?!

Just as expected, the first four teams advancing to the round of 16 are Brazil, Canada, Paraguay, and Morocco. In a shocking turn of events, Germany suffered their first-ever shootout loss in World Cup history. Meanwhile, the Netherlands also fell victim in a shootout, marking a frustrating pattern for a squad known for Total Football, as they recorded only 32% possession, the lowest any Dutch team has seen in World Cup history. Additionally, Canada has now established itself as the only team in World Cup history with a flawless 100% win rate in knockout matches.

With its inherent unpredictability—remarked by an average of 20 shots and two or three goals per game—soccer became even more chaotic following the introduction of this knockout round to the World Cup format. The uncertainty isn’t likely to dissipate, and with just four games played, there’s insufficient data to draw any solid conclusions about which teams will prevail.

Instead of merely summarizing the collective astonishment that echoed across the globe after Morocco’s Ismael ‌Saibari netted that penalty, we’re diving deeper. We will highlight the biggest questions facing each of the qualifying teams as they step into the round of 16, and this page will be updated as more teams join the mix, with the newest entries at the top.

All statistics are derived from Futi or Stats Perform data unless otherwise specified. Projections referenced originate from Michael Caley’s PADDLIN’ model.

---

Key Question: What is the actual value of home-field advantage at the Azteca?

Here’s a list of teams in the 2026 World Cup that have achieved perfect victories without conceding a single goal:

Mexico … and no one else.

While they may not shine like the USMNT or create historic moments like Canada, El Tri has consistently delivered solid performances, winning and keeping their opponents scoreless. They’ve secured victories in diverse ways, either by dominating possession or by executing counterattacks, as seen in their match against Ecuador on Tuesday.

The round of 16 will mark their final match in Mexico, specifically at the Azteca Stadium. Ian Graham, former head of research at Liverpool, has provided a succinct explanation for home-field advantage in soccer, equating its benefits to adding one Lionel Messi to your squad. This comparison reflects just the average impact of home-field advantage.

Caley stated regarding Mexico’s specific home advantage:

Mexico enjoys the most significant home-field benefit at this World Cup, even though the knockout rounds will take place in the US. In their two home matches at the Azteca, they will experience nearly double the substantial home-field advantage boost due to the altitude of over 7,000 feet. Research on home-field advantage suggests that elevation holds a considerable and consistent influence.

Sure, Argentina gets one Messi, but in their next match, Mexico might just have two.

---

Key Question: What happens when they can’t maintain possession?

The narrative surrounding France is quite straightforward. They boast three of the world’s most exceptional attackers, and they are indeed overwhelming their competitors. To date, Kylian Mbappé has single-handedly scored more goals than half the teams in the tournament. With a total of 13 goals, France has never scored fewer than three in any of their matches, averaging 18 shots per game.

However, France’s style deviates from that of most top attacking teams. While many rely on solid defensive strategies, winning the ball back high up the field and creating opportunities, France tends to excel in a different manner. Their pressing tactics, measured by passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), are below average, yet they enjoy substantial field tilt status.

Why is this the case? Partly due to the caliber of opponents thus far—teams that have struggled to control play against them—and partly due to the breathtaking abilities of players like Michael Olise, Mbappe, and Dembele. Why risk giving them space?

Eventually, an opponent will attempt to stifle the supply reaching the front three, but unfortunately for Paraguay, that task won’t fall to them.

---

Key Question: Can the defense withstand pressure?

It’s easy to envision Norway functioning under most managerial styles. In simplistically speaking: a colossal, unstoppable center forward excels in open space; an astute attacking midfielder thrives on feeding those passes; and a collection of tall, capable players who serve their roles across European leagues.

Traditional thinking would suggest a deep defensive setup focusing on counterattacks, right? Not quite. Over four matches, they’ve progressed the ball at a speed of 1.05 meters per second, ranking only 39th among all teams. Their strategy appears to be a flexible blend: neither pressing high nor falling too deep. While they don’t pursue possession aggressively, they do manage to control the ball effectively once regained.

This is evidenced by the field control map from Futi, with areas of greener possession outshining opponents:

So why not opt for a deeper defensive strategy to create more space for Erling Haaland to exploit? Simply put, this team struggles defensively. They’ve amassed 59 shots conceded compared to the 44 they’ve taken, and excluding their match against France’s reserves, they’re still at a deficit of 10 for total shots. Despite controlling 50% of possession, they have conceded eight goals over four matches, and their expected goals allowed, at 1.4, ranks 30th overall.

With Brazil having experienced difficulties against organized defenses, can Norway pose a similar challenge in the round of 16?

---

Morocco

The Key Question: Can they maintain this momentum?

Let’s address the elephant in the room: Yes, this may seem like a rather weak “big” question. You could say the same about any other team, to be fair. Nevertheless, my hesitation stems from Morocco’s outstanding performance across their four matches. If they continue in this vein, as Zohran Mamdani suggests, they could very well be in the running for the World Cup title.

I can’t think of a more telling test than this: Morocco has consistently outperformed both the Netherlands and Brazil, achieving a 25-to-18 shot advantage against the latter while controlling around two-thirds of possession in the final third. This team demonstrates proficiency in every aspect—defensively, they build play effectively, or they can counter swiftly when needed. Notably, they limited the Dutch to just six shots with an expected goal tally of only 0.24 across 120 minutes.

The only lingering doubt is whether this squad can sustain such a high level of performance. While they feature talented players, only Achraf Hakimi is truly recognized as a star, and he’s playing as a fullback. Others, like Bilal El Khannous, Noussair Mazraoui, Ismael Saibari, and Azzedine Ounahi, have excelled in the tournament, yet few would have deemed them key players before the competition began.

International soccer has its own unique environment, different from what we see in England or Spain each week. It tends to be simpler, with new spaces emerging, allowing particular skill sets to shine. Sometimes, a group of players fits together perfectly, complementing each other’s skill sets such that they achieve results that exceed their individual abilities.

---

Paraguay

Key Question: Can they continue to score first?

Expectations surrounding Paraguay are clear. They are a formidable defensive unit. Their strategy revolves around sitting back, countering, and securing goals via set pieces. If they manage to execute this effectively, just ask Türkiye and Germany about their experiences against Paraguay.

Paraguay has executed a staggering 718 low defensive actions, referring to interventions made in their own half. No other team has exceeded 478 low defensive actions in their initial four games. This aggressive defensive style is a strategic choice.

However, one cannot simply defend and counter if trailing—just check Paraguay’s experience against the USMNT, where they faced a barrage following an own goal just seven minutes in. Their low-block defense is capable, but if they fall behind, it’s hard to envision them advancing further in the tournament.

---

Brazil

Key Question: What’s the game plan here, folks?

Although Brazil managed to take the lead over Japan during injury time, they were utterly dominant in the second half. They launched 11 shots while Japan had just one, controlling 80% of the possession in the final third, ultimately justifying their win.

Yet, the first half told a different story. Chances were shared evenly, with Japan leading 1-0 at halftime.

So, what was the catalyst for change? Brazil seemed to shed the rigid tactical constraints imposed by European club soccer, opting instead for a more fluid style.

Just kidding: they simply bombarded the box repeatedly until they found success. Under Carlo Ancelotti, Brazil executed an astounding 40 crosses against Japan, marking their third-highest total in a World Cup match since 1960. A staggering 70% of these crosses were attempted in the second half.

In their encounters with well-coached teams—Japan and Morocco—they struggled in the opening halves, before substitutions and individual skill salvaged the games. Japan’s top three players were sidelined for their match on Monday, and as fatigue set in during the second half, the Brazilian squad capitalized.

But what occurs when they face an organized side featuring elite attacking talents? We’ll find out in the next round.

---

Canada

Key Question: Can Alphonso Davies exceed 20 minutes on the pitch?

Tactically, Canada’s plan is clear: play like a team nurtured by an international energy drink corporation.

Typically, teams either press high, controlling possession, or sit back and rely on counterattacks. However, coach Jesse Marsch’s Canada (much like his previous Red Bull teams) does both; they press high while quickly transitioning to an aggressive attack upon regaining possession.

The metrics show this approach: Canada ranks amongst the tournament’s top 10 pressing teams as measured by passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) while also moving the ball upfield at a noteworthy pace of 1.85 meters per second, the fastest in the tournament.

Thus, Canada’s success hinges on a singular factor: How much will their country’s all-time greatest player be able to play? After injuring his hamstring in early May while playing for Bayern Munich, Davies has only seen a total of 22 minutes of action this summer. He is the one player capable of turning a match in Canada’s favor.