-
Ryan O’Hanlon
Multiple Authors
Here are the teams that have claimed the last 10 UEFA Champions League titles: Real Madrid, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Paris Saint-Germain.
These teams make up six of the eight clubs in what UEFA refers to as the “Silver Path”—the upper half of the 2026 Champions League bracket. Collectively, they have secured 31 Champions League titles and finished as runners-up 15 times. However, only one of these teams can make it to the final this season.
The other side, which we might as well label the “Blue Path,” has not seen a title since 2015. The eight teams on this side have combined for only five European Cup wins and nine additional second-place finishes. Aside from Barcelona, no other club here has lifted the Champions League trophy.
Last season saw a new champion emerge, and this year’s bracket presents a genuine opportunity for that to happen again. While their odds remain below 50%, Arsenal stands out as the frontrunner in betting odds to claim victory.
But will they succeed? As is customary, we will analyze all previous champions for whom we have extensive data and identify which of the remaining 16 teams resembles a potential winner the most.
All statistics used here come from Opta and Stats Perform.
– Ranking the 10 least effective Premier League teams based on spending
– The Premier League is now dull—here’s how to bring excitement back
– Assessing summer transfer requirements for all 20 Premier League clubs
Predictive metric No. 1: Goal Scoring
Instead of focusing solely on goals, we’ll implement a combination of goal-scoring and chance creation that I have previously labeled “adjusted goals.” This metric comprises 70% expected goals (xG) and 30% actual goals, providing a more accurate performance evaluation.
The benchmark here is exemplified by Chelsea’s 2012 Champions League-winning side, which, despite finishing sixth in the Premier League, averaged 1.61 adjusted goals per game, marginally surpassing the performance of another Chelsea squad nine years later.
So, which team falls short this year? We will eliminate three teams from the Blue Path and one from the Silver Path: Atlético Madrid (1.58), Atalanta (1.52), Newcastle (1.52), and Tottenham (1.13) do not meet the minimum threshold. Additionally, Sporting Lisbon, Galatasaray, and Bodo/Glimt are excluded since no side outside the top five leagues in Europe has reached the final in the last 15 seasons.
For those interested in the analytics behind their exclusions: Bodo had the fifth-worst xG differential during the league stage; Galatasaray managed just six non-penalty goals; and Sporting was outshot 118-87.
Teams eliminated: Atlético Madrid, Atalanta, Newcastle, Tottenham, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Sporting Lisbon
Teams still in contention: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Manchester City, Liverpool, PSG, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Bayer Leverkusen
Predictive metric No. 2: Goal Prevention
Defense has typically been considered the key to winning championships.
In the past 15 seasons, a handful of truly elite defensive teams—such as Chelsea in 2021, Barcelona in 2011 and 2015, Liverpool in 2019, and Bayern Munich in 2013—have lifted the Champions League trophy. All achieved adjusted goals-allowed averages below 0.85. However, many recent champions have hovered nearer to the 1.0 mark.
Is this indicative of a shift in tactical balance across Europe, or is it purely random? Only time will tell.
The weakest defense to win was also the weakest attack: Chelsea in 2012, with an adjusted goals allowed of 1.22 per game. Among the remaining teams, Chelsea has the highest adjusted goals allowed this season at 1.29. Few others among the remaining 16 allow more shots than Chelsea’s average of 11 per match, and only Barcelona—who employ a risky high press strategy—allow higher quality chances.
Both Liverpool (1.22) and Barcelona (1.21) barely made the cut.
Teams eliminated: Chelsea
Teams still in contention: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Manchester City, Liverpool, PSG, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen
Predictive metric No. 3: Pressing Effectiveness
A decade ago, manager Roger Schmidt demonstrated the effectiveness of a high-pressure game with Bayer Leverkusen. They not only pressed effectively but also sought to shoot at goal immediately. There hasn’t been another team quite like that since.
The current Bayer Leverkusen team, however, has taken a different approach, registering as the least aggressive pressing team left in the Champions League.
The most tenacious pressing team to win was Luis Enrique’s Barcelona in 2015, which boasted an incredible 6.98 PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action). This formidable team prevented goals and featured legends like Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, and Neymar leading the attack. This is widely regarded as the best football team I’ve ever witnessed.
Unsurprisingly, the team with the least aggressive pressing that went on to win the European Cup was Chelsea in 2012, registering a PPDA of 13.26, which means we must also eliminate Leverkusen with their 13.44 PPDA this time around.
Teams eliminated: Bayer Leverkusen
Teams still in contention: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Manchester City, Liverpool, PSG, Real Madrid
Predictive metric No. 4: Cross-Frequency
Contrary to previous metrics, this analysis highlights a balance. We aim to identify teams that fall within an optimal range for crossing.
Why? Because while crossing isn’t the most efficient tactic, it remains essential to stretch defenses and create threats from the flanks. A team that never crosses is hampered, just as one that relies solely on crossing.
A winning approach in the Champions League typically features between 8.4% and 19.7% of final-third passes as crosses. The former figure is from PSG last season, and the latter from Chelsea’s 2012 team.
This season, only Tottenham falls outside the upper range, but several favorites trail behind. Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and PSG—the second, third, and sixth favorites—are crossing the ball less than last season’s champions. Barcelona has a crossing rate of 8.0%, while Bayern (7.7%) and PSG (7.4%) are even lower.
The key question for all three teams during the knockout stage: Can they generate high-quality chances against well-organized, physically imposing defenses?
Teams eliminated: Bayern Munich, Barcelona, PSG
Teams still in contention: Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Real Madrid
Predictive metric No. 5: Pace of Play
Maintaining control in Champions League matches can be extraordinarily challenging. The high level of competition paired with unfamiliar styles makes defending against the same opponent in successive matches all the more complicated.
To succeed in the Champions League, teams must endure—and even excel—during periods of rapid transitions when both sides push hard.
Nonetheless, since the pandemic, the sport’s tempo has shifted dramatically. In 2019, Liverpool’s games averaged 99.1 possessions per team, the highest of any winner in this dataset. This record was swiftly surpassed by Bayern Munich’s 99.8 possessions the following year. Yet, the five winners since then recorded the fewest possessions per game.
This number has not kept decreasing since Man City set the lower limit at 78.5 possessions per team in 2023. Thus, both Arsenal (77.2) and Real Madrid (78.2) are eliminated.
Teams eliminated: Arsenal, Real Madrid
Teams still in contention: Manchester City, Liverpool
Predictive metric No. 6: Defensive Formation
There are numerous defensive philosophies capable of yielding trophies.
Teams can play high-press to restrict opponents from ball possession, sit deep to deny space in the attacking third, or adopt a midblock that disrupts play in the midfield. Effective teams have proven capable of successful defenses utilizing varied strategies.
However, we’ve never encountered a successful defense that permits opponents to dominate play in central areas.
This season, Europe’s average team allows rivals to have a touch approximately 17.52 meters from the center of the field. In fact, each of the last 15 Champions League champions kept opponents even farther from the center. When Manchester City secured their title in 2023, they allowed opponents to touch the ball at an average of 17.58 meters from center—the lowest distance recorded by a recent winner.
This poses difficulties for Liverpool. Their location of 16.76 meters is not only closer than all past winners but also closer than all but six teams in Europe’s top five leagues this season.
With that said, Manchester City rises to the top. This may be unexpected considering this is among the least impressive City sides that Pep Guardiola has managed, but their gameplay is remarkably unremarkable. Unlike previous styles characterized by extremes in possession, pressing, and ball advancement, their approach resembles that of many other strong teams without notable stylistic identifiers.
This strategy may not suffice to maximize points over a 38-game domestic campaign, hence their current position behind Arsenal in the Premier League, but it may advantage them in knockout formats against the world’s elite.
Overall Winner: Manchester City