This was meant to be Vinícius Júnior’s year. In 2024, the star forward for Real Madrid had claimed the titles of LaLiga and the UEFA Champions League. The next logical step was the Ballon d’Or.
Most believed this to be the case, a sentiment loudly echoed by former Manchester United player Rio Ferdinand, who enthusiastically declared “Ballon d’Or!” into a microphone six times — count them — after Vinícius scored Madrid’s second goal in the 2024 Champions League final.
However, Vinícius did not win the 2024 Ballon d’Or. That honor went to Rodri. On October 28 last year, Vinícius and Real Madrid learned that the Brazil forward wouldn’t cap a memorable year by claiming football’s most prestigious individual award. Instead, he finished as runner-up to the less flashy Manchester City and Spain midfielder.
In response, Madrid decided to boycott the ceremony, canceling plans to send a large delegation to Paris and cutting ties with event organizers France Football.
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In Madrid, finishing second is simply not sufficient. Vini Jr. expressed his defiance through a bold social media post: “I’ll do it 10 times if I have to. They aren’t ready.” The message was unmistakable: if not this year, then next year. It’s just a matter of time.
Yet, 2025 has not proven to be Vinícius’ year, either. Real Madrid concluded last season without a major trophy, enduring a record four Clásicos defeats to Barcelona. Under new coach Xabi Alonso at the FIFA Club World Cup, Vinícius managed just one goal in six matches, and so far this season, Alonso has shown uncertainty, benching Vinícius three times, including during a recent LaLiga win over Getafe.
Despite this, Vinícius, now 25, is still expected to start in Sunday’s upcoming Clásico against Barcelona (stream LIVE on ESPN+ in the U.S.) at the Santiago Bernabéu. However, he will no longer enter the game as Madrid’s standout star; that title now belongs to Kylian Mbappé, who has elevated his performance, scoring in 10 of the team’s 11 matches this season.
This marks a remarkable shift from just a year ago, as Vinícius transitioned from a Ballon d’Or front-runner to facing inconsistent performance, a reduced role within the Real Madrid lineup, and even questions regarding his long-term prospects with the club.
In the year prior to his Ballon d’Or snub — from October 28, 2023, to October 27, 2024 — Vinícius made a compelling case for being the world’s best player.
He netted 18 goals in 30 LaLiga matches during this stretch, averaging 0.6 goals per game. The only players who outscored him in LaLiga during that period were three pure strikers, two of whom were enjoying the best form of their careers: Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski (28 goals), Alexander Sørloth (22 goals, playing for Villarreal and Atlético Madrid), and Artem Dovbyk (19 goals, then with Girona).
While their roles center on scoring goals, Vinícius’ contributions went beyond that. Over the same year, he registered eight assists (surpassed by six LaLiga players) and created 49 chances, ranking him 16th in the league. His dribbling, arguably his strongest asset, was highlighted by a league-high 227 successful take-ons, more than Lamine Yamal (225), Nico Williams (201), and Savinho (194).
During this period, Vinícius also delivered several standout performances in the Champions League. He contributed a total of 11 goals (8 goals and 3 assists), second only to Harry Kane. In terms of wing play, no one approached his 95 take-ons (Mbappé was the next closest with 70).
On April 30, 2024, he netted twice in a 2-2 semifinal draw at Bayern Munich. A month later, he scored a crucial second goal in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley. Just six days before the Ballon d’Or ceremony, he delivered one of his most exhilarating performances: scoring a second-half hat trick in another victory over Dortmund, turning a 0-2 deficit into a stunning 5-2 win at the Bernabéu.
However, the following year — from October 28, 2024, to the present — has been far less impressive. Vinícius’ scoring has declined to 11 goals in 28 LaLiga matches, bringing his average down to 0.4 goals per game. Over this span, 11 LaLiga players have scored more than him, including Raphinha (15 goals) and Athletic Club‘s Oihan Sancet (12 goals), neither of whom are center forwards.
Vinícius has provided another eight assists, matching his output from the previous year — only Yamal has more, with 11. However, three of those assists came in the last month, indicating an upswing in his performance. Notably, he went through a stretch of 15 league matches without assisting anyone from November 24, 2024, to May 11, 2025.
Some of this decline can be attributed to a generally underperforming Madrid squad during the 2024-25 season, as well as other broader issues. Vinícius still managed to create 59 chances for teammates over the last year, an improvement of 10 compared to the previous period, with only six LaLiga players — Pedri, Álex Baena, Raphinha, Mbappé, Isco, and Luis Milla — creating more chances.
However, during that troubling period of 15 matches without assists, the team dropped points in six of them, many against teams deemed beatable: Rayo Vallecano, Espanyol, Atlético Madrid, Osasuna, Real Betis, and Valencia. Madrid finished the season four points behind champion Barcelona.
In the Champions League, Vinícius rebounded from his Ballon d’Or disappointment, scoring four goals in three matches against AC Milan, Atalanta, and RB Salzburg, followed by a man-of-the-match performance in Madrid’s 3-2 playoff victory at Manchester City on February 11, 2025.
However, after that, against Atlético Madrid in the round of 16 and Arsenal in the quarterfinals, his impact dwindled, with just a single goal against Arsenal at the Bernabéu. Over the past year, only 10 players surpassed Vinícius’ contributions of seven goals and assists in the Champions League, while 17 players created more chances than he did.
As for this year’s Ballon d’Or, the primary contenders were Yamal and Ousmane Dembélé, with Paris Saint-Germain‘s Champions League-winning achievements resulting in Dembélé taking home the trophy at the Paris gala on September 22. Vinícius ended up in 16th place in the voting.
Following Vinícius’s strong bond with Carlo Ancelotti, who is now also his national team coach, the arrival of Alonso has prompted a reassessment of his role within Real Madrid. Under Ancelotti, Vinícius was a regular starter when fit.
However, under Alonso, Vinícius was initially left out of the starting lineup for matches against Real Oviedo on August 24 and Marseille in the Champions League on September 16, surprising many inside the club.
In these games, Alonso opted for Vinícius’ fellow Brazilian Rodrygo, who has expressed his desire to be considered for selection on the left wing. Even when Vinícius received starting opportunities under Alonso, he often was substituted early.
In Alonso’s first 12 matches in charge across all competitions, Vinícius played the full 90 minutes just once. Early in the season, his camp conveyed to ESPN they weren’t pleased with Alonso’s utilization of Vinícius, although there have been signs of improvement lately, with him playing the full match in three of the last five games and Alonso maintaining a supportive stance publicly.
“He had a great impact,” Alonso remarked about Vinícius’ recent contributions during a match against Getafe on Sunday. “We discussed this morning how players can be just as impactful from the start or when coming off the bench. That’s what happened today. Everyone must recognize their importance in whatever role they play.”
Vinícius has shown signs of returning to form recently. He shone in Madrid’s 4-1 victory against Levante on September 23, contributing a goal and an assist. He scored twice during a challenging match against Villarreal, leading to a 3-1 win on October 4. In the match against Getafe, he came on in the 55th minute and altered the game’s flow, leading to two opposing players — Allan Nyom and Álex Sancris — receiving red cards for their attempts to control him.
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Could Vinícius Jr. be on the move from Real Madrid?
Gab Marcotti discusses the potential for Vinícius Jr. to leave Real Madrid and the possible destinations.
Looking at the short-term, Vinícius seems to be solidifying his role as an essential component in Madrid’s squad aiming to outpace Barcelona for the title and improve on last year’s quarterfinal exit in the Champions League.
However, the long-term outlook remains unclear. Negotiations over his contract, which expires in June 2027, have stalled, according to sources at ESPN.
Progress was made in May regarding a potential new deal worth €20 million annually, plus another €10 million in bonuses. However, Madrid’s formal offer did not include these bonuses, leading Vinícius’ representatives to believe there was no urgency to accept a three-year extension, especially since he is already earning approximately €17 million a year after tax, including bonuses, and prefers to evaluate this season’s developments.
Contrarily, some club sources suggest that there’s unease at the Bernabéu regarding how these negotiations have been handled by the player. One source alleged that Madrid believed the renewal was progressing well before the player’s demands unexpectedly shifted.
Madrid remains optimistic about Vinícius renewing his contract, but one source said that, unless circumstances change, it would no longer be surprising if he opts to let his contract run down and leave for free in 2027.
Interest from the Saudi Pro League that arose last year has not resurfaced in 2025, with Vinícius’ camp downplaying that possibility since.
Historically, in contract disputes at the Bernabéu, even the club’s biggest stars — like Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos — rarely prevail. However, there’s no precedent for a prime Madrid star opting to run down their contract.
“I’m happy here, playing with the best players in the world, the best coach [Ancelotti], the best president [Florentino Pérez], where everyone loves me,” Vinícius stated last season.
“I couldn’t imagine being in a better place than this.”
Whether that sentiment remains true will depend on Vinícius’ performance, his evolving relationship with Alonso, and how both player and club navigate his contract situation.
ESPN’s Gustavo Hofman and Rodrigo Faez contributed to this report.