LONDON — There’s a valid discussion about England’s chances of winning the World Cup without Harry Kane, particularly after the team’s 1-0 loss at home to Japan. This match indicated that without Kane, the team’s prospects appear bleak.
Kane was sidelined due to a minor injury he picked up during England’s last training session. Historically, the 32-year-old has a solid fitness record, but such situations could complicate England’s hopes for a successful run in the upcoming summer tournament.
Prior to the training on Monday, manager Thomas Tuchel was asked about his contingency plans if Kane was unavailable. He had previously tried out players like Dominic Solanke and Dominic Calvert-Lewin during a 1-1 draw against Uruguay.
He chuckled softly and responded, “Good question… I guess you can see my answer already suggests I might not be sure. I have some ideas, but I won’t disclose them.”
England’s showing against Japan was similarly unimpressive. Instead of sticking with Solanke or Calvert-Lewin, Tuchel opted to deploy Phil Foden in a false nine role, with Cole Palmer positioned centrally, and Morgan Rogers on the right flank, with Anthony Gordon on the opposite side in a compact formation.
Palmer was notably responsible for conceding the decisive goal, which came from a well-executed play by Kaoru Mitoma, marking Japan’s historic victory as the first Asian country to defeat England.
Foden’s struggle with confidence and form continued, evidenced by the fact that despite England’s 19 shots, he didn’t manage a single attempt before his substitution in the 60th minute, having only touched the ball 22 times. In contrast, goalkeeper Jordan Pickford had 39 touches.
Tuchel’s adjustments had little effect on England’s performance. Solanke took the lead, Rogers moved to a No. 10 role with Jarrod Bowen deployed on the right. Although Marcus Rashford made a slight difference when he came on for Gordon, England’s minimal pressure was mainly from set-pieces involving Harry Maguire and Dan Burn.
Japan’s failure to clear from a corner gave Lewis Hall an opportunity to test Zion Suzuki, who made an impressive low save to his right.
This was one of England’s four shots on target on a night when Ben White faced boos before the match, while the entire team was booed at full time by a largely departing crowd; many of the 79,233 spectators had left well before the conclusion of the game.
Any team would feel Kane’s absence, as he is arguably the current best striker in the world with 53 goals in 45 matches for Bayern Munich and England this season. His role as captain also helps establish the standard England aspires to meet.
Since the 2018 World Cup, where Kane clinched the Golden Boot, England has a 65% win record in 88 matches with him on the field. Without him, that figure drops to 57%, but his impact is perceived as far more significant than those statistics imply.
“Without Harry Kane, we lose a key attacking threat,” Tuchel remarked. “Bayern Munich lacks the same potency without him, and it’s normal that no team in the world can replace that level of threat.”
“Top teams are reliant on their best players, and that’s entirely natural. Additionally, with Harry absent, we miss not just his talent but also his leadership. It can be disruptive when the captain exits training early and is unavailable for the match.”
“We can win without Harry; we have before. But having him makes it easier to secure victories.”
However, the need for a reliable alternative extends beyond just injury concerns. Kane has previously struggled during England’s Euro 2024 campaign, and the intense heat expected at this summer’s World Cup could further stress the importance of depth and rotation within the squad.
Ollie Watkins was left out of the squad because Tuchel feels he knows what the Aston Villa forward can offer. Unfortunately, Solanke, Calvert-Lewin, and Foden did not capitalize on their opportunities during this international break.
Consequently, Watkins makes a compelling case for a spot in the final 26-man squad, amid growing calls for veteran forward Danny Welbeck as he continues to excel in the Premier League, where he currently leads English scorers.
Tuchel’s willingness to experiment was understandable. Though the match itself may have been lackluster, the overarching strategy is critical. That larger picture, however, does reveal flaws, particularly England’s historically poor performance against top teams, even after reaching the finals in the last two European Championships.
England qualified for the World Cup after a perfect campaign, winning all eight games without conceding a goal. However, under Tuchel, they have faced three top-20 ranked teams: Senegal, Uruguay, and Japan. The outcome is one draw and two losses.
These results might be attributed to a period of experimentation, with the return of players like Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, and Bukayo Saka expected to bolster the squad. Yet, the point of this experimentation is to identify solutions, and it appears Tuchel is still figuring out how to cope without Kane as the World Cup draws closer.