In mid-January 1996, the Premier League landscape was dominated by title contenders Newcastle United and Manchester United, both of whom had completed 23 matches. With Newcastle holding a commanding 12-point lead, it seemed only a matter of time before the trophy was claimed at St James’ Park.
Fast forward thirty years, and history shows that Newcastle ultimately fell short in their quest for the title, extending their drought to 99 years since their last league win in 1927. Manchester United, on the other hand, remarkably came back to clinch the title, finishing four points clear in what is considered one of the Premier League’s most thrilling finishes.
By the 1997-98 season, Arsène Wenger’s Arsenal found themselves in a similar predicament, trailing Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United by 12 points as late as February. Yet, they defied expectations to win the league by the narrowest of margins. Thus, when United’s fans celebrated their 3-2 victory over Arsenal at the Emirates on Sunday by singing “we’re gonna win the league,” they might have genuinely believed it.
The victory propelled United into fourth place, 12 points behind Mikel Arteta’s struggling leaders Arsenal, and eight points adrift of Manchester City and Aston Villa in second and third, respectively. Just a point ahead of Chelsea and two clear of Liverpool, the prospect of Michael Carrick’s team launching a late title challenge still seems unlikely.
Even Carrick, who has won five titles as a player with United, urged caution in light of their recent success, stating that the primary goal should be securing a top-four finish and Champions League qualification over the tougher upcoming fixtures. Yet, given the unpredictable nature of this season, it’s impossible to completely dismiss the idea of a United title challenge.
This possibility seems far-fetched, especially after United’s unstable situation barely a month ago, following the abrupt departure of coach Ruben Amorim after just 14 months. However, with the current leaders appearing vulnerable, an intriguing finish could be on the horizon leading up to the final matches on May 24.
As it stands, determining a clear favorite for the 2025-26 Premier League title is a challenge, especially since Arsenal’s recent performances have shown signs of vulnerability under pressure, even before the more competitive stretch of the season has begun.
Pep Guardiola recently praised Arsenal as the “best team in the world,” which could be a strategic move to unsettle them. Nonetheless, with an impeccable record in the Champions League and maintaining a four-point cushion at the top of the Premier League, it’s hard to argue otherwise. However, their recent league form has been concerning, garnering merely two points and scoring just twice in the last three matches, while anxiety among the fans has noticeably escalated during their recent clash against United.
Arteta’s team seems to be feeling the weight of expectations, particularly due to the absence of a consistent goal scorer. The lack of a reliable 20-goal-a-season striker raises queries about their title hopes. Leandro Trossard and Viktor Gyökeres lead the team with only five goals each in the league, and star winger Bukayo Saka has gone 13 games without finding the net.
Moreover, Gyökeres hasn’t netted from open play in the last 11 league fixtures, while forwards Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke have failed to score in their last 13 and 26 league games, respectively.
Meanwhile, Manchester City, now just four points behind Arsenal, ended a stretch of four winless games with a 2-0 win against relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers. Despite this victory, having already incurred five losses this season puts City in an unexpectedly insecure position.
Defensive issues have plagued Guardiola’s squad, and while they recently bolstered their backline with a £20 million addition in Marc Guéhi from Crystal Palace, midfield struggles continue to hinder their performance against top competitors. Although striker Erling Haaland has scored 20 goals in 23 league games this season, he has been quiet lately, only converting one penalty in his past nine matches across all competitions.
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Amid these developments, could Aston Villa seize on the top two’s vulnerabilities to achieve an unexpected title victory akin to Leicester City’s unforgettable triumph in 2015-16?
Currently sitting third, Villa is also four points behind Arsenal and has proven its mettle by securing wins against the likes of Arsenal, City, United, and Chelsea this season. Their recent form has been impressive, with 15 victories in their last 18 games, including an 11-match winning streak. However, a surprising 1-0 loss at home to Everton last week raised questions about their title credentials.
That match was a missed opportunity to assert their status as serious competitors. While Villa, a seven-time English champion last crowned in 1981, could aim for their eighth title in 2026, they must maintain their stellar recent performances despite having the narrowest squad of the top clubs. Tough matches against United, Chelsea, and Liverpool await in the final stretch, with their last game scheduled against City at the Etihad.
Recent title races typically revolve around teams gaining momentum and sustaining it while fending off rival pressures; however, this season has deviated from that narrative.
Instead of pulling ahead decisively, the top teams have faltered at critical moments. Consequently, it’s conceivable that United, who find themselves 12 points adrift in fourth place, could inch into the title conversation after revitalizing the atmosphere at Old Trafford with consecutive victories over City and Arsenal.
Though a title win for United remains unlikely, the unpredictable nature of this season could lead to further surprising twists as the campaign unfolds.