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Ryan O’Hanlon
Multiple Authors
Once thought to be fading from soccer, long-range goals are now the subject of debate: Are they diminished due to analytics or new coaching strategies? The consensus is clear: shots from a distance are less likely to score compared to closer attempts.
This insight stems from the concept of expected goals (xG). While it may seem obvious, it aligns with other straightforward analytical truths found in various sports. For instance, three points in soccer are superior to two, it’s easier to pass than to charge directly at defenders, and hitting home runs is advantageous. When players heed crowd calls to “SHOOT,” they risk squandering possession that could lead to better scoring opportunities.
As clubs have gradually adapted and improved their strategies, the memorable goals we relished back in December 2006 have drastically decreased.
In the 2008-09 season, the first year documented by Stats Perform, Premier League teams launched 45.7% of their attempts from outside the box. This season, that figure has plummeted to 32.5%, marking the second-lowest percentage recorded. In addition, the average shooting distance has reduced from 18.3 meters in 2008-09 to just 15.4 meters this season, equaling last season’s record low.
Compounding this trend is a distinct downturn in attacking play within the Premier League. Currently, teams average 4.03 attempts from outside the box per game—marking the lowest since the 2008-09 season and likely the lowest in the league’s history.
Still, you might recall Aston Villa‘s Morgan Rogers confidently scoring from distance early in the season. Or think of Liverpool‘s Dominik Szoboszlai, who appeared to flawlessly defy the laws of physics. And who could forget Fulham’s Kevin? Kevin!
Despite the decline in long-range shots, goals from outside the box (averaging 0.23 per team, per match) have maintained a steady, nearly 19-year trend. Simply put, when players attempt these long-distance shots this season, the likelihood of scoring is higher than in nearly all previous recorded seasons.
Several theories explain this phenomenon, often highlighting the interaction of tactics and player development. As teams focus on shooting from closer ranges, defenses may over-commit to blocking those attempts, inadvertently creating more space for long-range shots. Thus, those few players retaining their long-range shooting skills are taking advantage.
Alternatively, a more straightforward explanation arises from a notable change made by the Premier League this season: switching from Nike to Puma and introducing a new ball for the first time in 25 years. Perhaps the new ball has made shots easier to control while also being harder for goalkeepers to save.
To investigate this hypothesis, I reached out to a scientist in the Pacific Northwest, who then collaborated with colleagues in Japan. They tested various soccer balls in a wind tunnel, subjecting them to intense airflow.
The Physics of Set Pieces
In 2006, John Eric Goff experienced what only a few dedicated soccer fans in America hear: a lack of interest in soccer.
It wasn’t his friends or family urging him to stop; instead, it was the American Journal of Physics declining to engage with his work.
After obtaining his PhD, Goff initially focused on condensed matter theory and nonlinear optics—common pursuits for physicists. Yet while teaching at Lynchburg College, students approached him with sports-related projects. One such endeavor involved modeling cyclists in the Tour de France, while another sought to apply physics to evaluate the likelihood of soccer shots hitting the target. Their submission to the leading American journal was met with skepticism, stating there was “limited interest” in the sport of soccer.
Undeterred, Goff and his team submitted the paper to a European journal, where it was swiftly accepted, coinciding with the surge of excitement surrounding the 2006 World Cup.
Goff conducted wind tunnel tests comparing the Nike Flight ball (left) to the new Puma ball (right) to assess their flight performance.
Published in the European Journal of Physics, Goff established himself as the go-to expert for understanding how balls interact with athletes, tools, and environments. His work led to a book, “Gold Medal Physics: The Science of Sports,” and he soon found media opportunities like the infamous NPR segment titled “What Physics Says About Smooth Balls.”
The 2010 World Cup featured a notorious ball called the “Jabulani,” widely criticized for its unpredictable flight. Goalkeepers, players, and commentators expressed frustrations with its erratic behavior.
When kicked, a typical soccer ball adheres to physical laws; for instance, rightward spin makes it curve to the right. However, supermarket balls, which are more erratic in flight, resemble the bewildering movement seen during Keisuke Honda’s memorable free kick goal against Denmark during the same World Cup.
Many exhibitions of unexplainable strikes occurred during that World Cup, prompting Goff and mechanical engineers in Japan to evaluate the Jabulani’s behavior in a wind tunnel. The findings highlighted significant aerodynamic differences between this and past World Cup models.
Two main factors dictate a soccer ball’s trajectory: speed and drag coefficient. While most World Cup balls maintain stability at speeds exceeding 35 miles per hour, the Jabulani’s drag coefficient surged past that speed marker, resulting in erratic flights at higher velocities compared to its predecessors.
What differentiated the Jabulani? Goff noted it was “too smooth,” with a mere eight panels (as opposed to previous models with 16 or 32). This smoother surface meant less stability in flight as any disturbances created instability at lower speeds.
Current models from Puma maintain a higher smoothness, although they have developed surface features that facilitate better airflow control, compared to last year’s Nike Flight ball which had deeper grooves.
How the New Puma Ball Reshaped the Premier League
After thorough testing, Goff’s observations were confirmed: the simplified, smoother Puma ball travels farther and becomes unstable more quickly compared to the Nike counterpart.
Here’s a visual representation of the findings:
This reveals an interesting trend in performance parameters, although it’s not definitive evidence.
A recent study compared the new 2026 World Cup ball, “Trionda,” with past match balls, revealing significant similarities in surface composition and performance metrics.
The notable distinction between Nike and Puma balls does offer insights, but it doesn’t evoke the drastic effects seen with the Jabulani back in 2010. The performance differences translate to evolving player perceptions regarding how the balls behave.
Many players and managers have commented on the Puma ball’s behavior throughout the season, including Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta, who noted the challenges presented by the ball’s characteristics during the Carabao Cup.
Following a notable goal conceded, Arsenal keeper David Raya remarked on the difficulty of judging strikes with the new ball’s unpredictable nature.
Aston Villa’s John McGinn humorously suggested Rogers was “cheating” with his Puma endorsement, while Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola described the ball as “tricky.”
Fine margins significantly influence player performances, and they often notice even minor variations. Consequently, the initial rate of goals scored from distance was notably high but has recently declined as players adapt to the ball’s quirks.
The surge in long-range scoring has tapered, and while it’s tempting to attribute this shift to mere coincidence, it raises the question: have players adjusted to the new ball’s idiosyncrasies?
Attempts to gather information about the Premier League’s rationale for the noted switch from Nike to Puma have been met with lack of response. Instead, a press release primarily focused on promotional aspects was provided, neglecting to clarify how these changes affected ball performance.
The transition from Nike wasn’t necessarily met with dissatisfaction; rather, it aligns with the broader trend of capitalizing on new revenue avenues.
This commercial logic also explains the ongoing variations seen in World Cup balls each tournament, despite minimal changes to performance parameters.
Interestingly, the upcoming World Cup will utilize the Trionda, which is more akin to last season’s Nike ball rather than any groundbreaking advancements.
Ultimately, if fans appreciated the spike in long-range goals this Premier League season, they shouldn’t anticipate a continuation during the World Cup. When a player finds their moment, positions themselves, and unleashes a powerful strike, the ball is likely to revert to earlier patterns—ultimately falling into enemy territory.