Power Rankings: Chelsea...

Ryan O’HanlonFeb 27, 2026, 07:00 AM ET
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In 1912, Italian statistician Corrado Gini introduced a method for quantifying what has become a critical aspect of modern society: inequality.

This method assesses a society’s equality on a scale from 0 to 1—0 representing complete equality with everyone earning the same income, and 1 indicating that a single individual earns all the income.

It has become a standard tool for measuring wealth distribution in contemporary economies. According to a 2022 report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the United States ranks fifth highest in Gini coefficient among the countries studied, while Slovakia boasts the most equitable economic distribution.

What’s the relevance to our current discussion? Another Italian data analyst, Roberto Angioni, recently applied Gini’s formula to evaluate income inequality in the English Premier League. He analyzed the disparity in points between the leading team and others, showing that although the Premier League remains more unequal than any OECD nation, its Gini coefficient of 52.5% is the lowest it has been in nine seasons (for context, La Liga, the next lowest among Europe’s top five leagues, stands at 56.7%).

The core message remains unchanged from our previous analysis: the Premier League is now more competitive than ever. Let’s delve into the second edition of ESPN’s monthly Premier League Power Rankings to unpack the current standings.

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Understanding the Premier League Power Rankings

For a more detailed explanation of the methodology, revisit the first edition of the rankings here. Our primary objective is:

These rankings are not meant to be the most precise in history; instead, we aim for simplicity and intuitiveness while retaining some predictive capability. The value lies in contrasting the rankings with the actual table, identifying discrepancies, and analyzing the underlying reasons.

The formula is intentionally straightforward, drawing from four key inputs for each team: (1) estimated market value from Transfermarkt, (2) non-penalty expected goal differential, (3) passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), indicating pressing intensity, and (4) pass completion percentage outside the final third, reflecting a team’s ability to handle opposition pressure.

Here’s how the standings appear at the end of February:

1. Arsenal (unchanged)

Since our last update, Arsenal has secured only seven points out of a possible 18, suffering a defeat to Manchester United and drawing with Brentford and Wolves.

If Manchester City clinches their game in hand, they will trail Arsenal by just two points. The phrase “control their own destiny” is often used in this context, but it’s worth noting that destiny, by its very nature, cannot be controlled; what commentators mean is that City can win the league by winning all their remaining matches, including the pivotal game against Arsenal.

Despite Arsenal’s recent struggles against Brentford, there is little evidence to suggest a collapse at the Emirates. Although they’ve played one game more, Arsenal boasts the best expected goals differential in the Premier League over the last five matches:

They remain the top team in the league and maintain a lead over the second-place team, making them the clear favorites to secure the Premier League title.

While Manchester City holds the second spot, their ranking has improved slightly. This adjustment comes primarily from reevaluating market values post-January transfer window, when City made several high-profile signings. Additionally, they’ve shown increased intensity in their off-ball play recently.

The following chart illustrates City’s trends in PPDA and buildup completion over the past five matches:

Lower PPDA values indicate a more aggressive press, and City’s pressing stats have been in decline since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016.

Could the acquisitions of Marc Guéhi and Antoine Semenyo strengthen City’s presence higher up the pitch? It’s too early to tell, though the evidence from recent matches suggests improvement.

Liverpool presents a contrasting situation compared to Chelsea. Their upcoming fixtures until May include:

• West Ham (Home)
• Wolves (Away)
• Tottenham (Home)
• Brighton (Away)
• Fulham (Home)
• Everton (Away)
• Crystal Palace (Home)

They’re likely favored to win most of these matches, providing a chance to secure their top-five position while building an advantage heading into a challenging final month against United, Villa, Chelsea, and Brentford.

As illustrated by the charts above, Chelsea is aligning with the ranking system’s expectations. Their tactical approach emphasizes pressing and deftly navigating opposition pressure, and they have recently been outscoring their opponents significantly—a shift from their struggles under previous coaching.

With a highly valued squad, Chelsea appears to meet the model’s criteria; however, they face an uphill battle in their remaining fixtures. They still must contend with all the top-six teams and the current third-place team, Aston Villa, making their schedule the toughest in the league.

Under Michael Carrick, Manchester United has played six matches, boasting a plus-0.56 non-penalty expected goal differential, an improvement from the plus-0.35 rate achieved under former coach Ruben Amorim.

The changes include increased playing time for Kobbie Mainoo, a less aggressive pressing approach, and more deliberate ball control during buildup—contrasting with Amorim’s earlier strategies that often yielded poor results.

Despite earning just three points from their last five matches and sitting at 11th, it’s hard to argue that Newcastle are the league’s 11th-best team. They have managed a minus-1 non-penalty goal differential over 27 matches, but:

While they’re unlikely to mount a serious challenge for the top five, they have advanced to the round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League, and they certainly wouldn’t be an easy opponent.

How does a team ranked 14th in the table find itself rated so highly? Surprisingly, they rank eighth in goal differential (plus-2), and their xG differential aligns with those statistics. Furthermore, they play as if they belong among the league’s elite:

While this might not fully leverage their potential given their talent level, Brighton’s pressing and possession are likely enhancing their players’ transfer values. For larger teams contemplating Brighton players, trusting them in a more proactive system isn’t a concern; they’re backed by solid tape and data.

Returning to Tottenham, the rankings struggle to reconcile their significant talent with their precarious positioning in the table and their dismal underlying numbers. Transfermarkt ranks Spurs as the fifth most valuable roster, trailing only City, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool. However, these valuations are misleading, as two factors come into play: first, some players aren’t living up to their reputations; and second, the team’s structure is poorly conceived.

Anyone familiar with football understands the importance of “passing,” one of the most critical components of gameplay, as it constitutes the majority of player actions during matches.

Yet, the Tottenham management has opted for players characterized more by their physical attributes than their technical prowess. It resembles a fitness regimen where someone solely relies on supplements while neglecting fundamental health practices.

According to Gradient Sports, highlighting their players’ abilities, Tottenham has no members in the top 50 for passing metrics and only one—defender Cristian Romero—is in the top 100.

DraftKings gives Spurs a plus-500 chance of relegation—approximately a 17% probability, which is likely higher without the vig.

Since our last update, Aston Villa has accumulated the seventh-most points in the league and achieved the eighth-best goal differential. This ranking matches closely with what we can realistically expect from them moving forward.

They remain in contention for a Champions League spot—just five points behind Liverpool and Chelsea, who are tied for fifth place.

One reason for their potential success, beyond what these rankings might indicate, is their schedule—six of their upcoming matches will be against teams currently at the bottom.

Notably, Nottingham Forest started strong under new coach Vitor Pereira, demolishing Fenerbahce and narrowly outplaying Liverpool. However, their performance has since waned, leading to a concerning xG differential that is now barely better than 17th-placed West Ham, who are closing in on them in points.

While I still believe Forest is superior in talent and performance, ongoing managerial changes cast doubt on their stability, posing potential risks for the remainder of the season.

Among Premier League clubs outside Manchester, Bournemouth has the fewest points over the last five matches:

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No, there’s no typo here. This is a deliberate emphasis.

14. Fulham (down 1)

Fulham is a unique case; they don’t press but attempt to build play methodically from the back, a combination whose effectiveness is questionable. Nevertheless, it’s kept them out of relegation trouble for yet another year.

They’ve experienced significant improvement recently, contributing to their rise in the rankings due to strong underlying performance. Yet, like Chelsea, their recent successes have largely come against weaker opponents. They face the second-toughest remaining schedule, including matches against City, Arsenal, Liverpool, United, and Newcastle.

Leeds is approaching survival in an unconventional manner—by relying on a high-scoring approach. They’ve conceded 46 goals, fewer than only the bottom three teams, while also scoring just one less than Aston Villa. My campaign for “Daniel Farke as Manager of the Year” continues.

16. Everton (unchanged)

Objectively, I would probably rate them a few spots higher, but their talent pool isn’t impressive. They lack a pressing game, struggle to maintain possession under pressure, and their xG differential hovers around minus-7.

As one of the league’s oldest teams, they need significant changes to avoid near misses in relegation in the future.

For much of this season, they were underperforming due to a streak of bad luck. Now, they’re firmly in the realm of a persistently poor team.

The rankings may not sufficiently account for recent form; yet they also prevent the overreaction that often accompanies short-term highs and lows. As the ratings shift, reflecting West Ham’s rise and Forest’s decline, the relegation battle’s intensity becomes evident, while Forest maintains a solid edge to retain their top-flight status.

Only Spurs and Wolves have earned fewer points since our last update. Among those teams, Spurs, Wolves, and Newcastle also share the league’s worst goal differentials. With their current form, it’s likely they will finish the season around 15th place.