Ranked: 48 Teams with a…

And just like that, the lineup stands at 48 teams.

Now that the final World Cup qualification window has closed, we can officially rank the nations competing in this summer’s FIFA World Cup.

These rankings are compiled by assessing both performance and talent: performance is based on World Football Elo Ratings—a system that adjusts for opponents, location, and competition—and talent relies on estimated squad values from Transfermarkt for the most recent call-ups.

Each element holds equal weight in our final rankings presented below.

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One might assume that with the expansion to 48 teams, Qatar would rank as the weakest team in World Cup history based on Elo ratings. Currently, they sit at 93rd globally, indicating that even if we expanded the participants in 2026 based solely on these rankings, they wouldn’t qualify.

The only team to perform worse than Qatar in the 32-team era is Togo, who in 2006 went 0-3, scoring a single goal while conceding six. Yet, Togo had a young Emmanuel Adebayor on their roster while he was with Arsenal, compared to Qatar’s top player, Akram Afif, who plays for Al Sadd SC.

If momentum matters in sports, keep an eye on Curacao, who have risen 38 positions in the Elo ratings over the past year—more than any other team in the competition, which makes their ascent from 128 to 90 noteworthy.

Jordan, with a squad valued at €15.98 million, ranks as the least valuable in the tournament, mainly due to the contributions of Rennes winger Musa Al-Taamari. Meanwhile, the USMNT has ten players in their latest roster valued higher than Jordan’s entire team.

Jordan’s high ranking can be attributed to their impressive qualification performance, including a 3-0 victory over South Korea at home and a 1-1 draw away.

It’s noteworthy that if both Iran and the U.S. finish second in their respective groups, they would meet in the round of 32. Despite their notable players, the USMNT’s recent performances cast doubt on their capability, especially after a 5-1 loss to Austria and a 2-1 defeat to Germany.

Predicting outcomes based on exhibition matches can be misleading. Given the ongoing questions about whether Ghana can meet its potential, their recent losses in friendlies suggest they may not be on track. The federation has responded accordingly, parting ways with their head coach.

Australia may have been the weakest team in the second pot of the draw, which may favor the USMNT, but that does not guarantee an easy match. They may lack a recognized star, but their players primarily compete in Europe or in the Australian A-League.

Together with Jordan and Colombia, Australia has the largest disparity between Elo rating and financial value among the tournament teams. Their qualifying feats include defeating Japan, the strongest team in Asia, at home and later drawing in an away match.

Fortunately, Alphonso Davies‘s hamstring injury isn’t severe, and he is expected to rejoin the Canadian squad shortly, which will positively influence their rankings.

Davies has had an intriguing career trajectory; a move from the Vancouver Whitecaps to Bayern Munich may not have seemed a guaranteed success, yet he became a key player in their Champions League victory just two years later.

However, his peak season remains 2019-20, when he played 3,400 minutes across all competitions—an achievement he hasn’t matched since, with only one other season surpassing 3,000 minutes.

Despite the anticipated discussions about lost potential, it’s essential to remember that Davies is still only 25, and his prime is just beginning. We hope to see him shine on the field this summer.

While there aren’t any monumental statements to make about the USMNT, they currently rank as the strongest team in CONCACAF for the last two years, even if teams like the US and Canada possess better individual talent.

Competently, Mexico should make it past their group stage, especially with home-field advantage, but their future progress will largely depend on the draw outcomes.

The innovations of Ralf Rangnick are evident in Austria’s style of play, reflecting the full embrace of the “Red Bull” approach.

Exhibition performances invite skepticism, yet Austria boasts the lowest opponent pass completion rate in the tournament at 73.8% since Euro 2024.

Regardless of the USMNT’s recent match results, consider this:

• Argentina won its last three matches before the 2022 World Cup 11-0 yet lost to Saudi Arabia in their opener.
• France experienced a loss in March 2018 but went on to win the World Cup after that and a pre-tournament tie.
• Germany had a few uninspiring matches before the 2014 World Cup but emerged as champions.
• Spain dominated friendlies before faltering in their opening match of the 2010 World Cup, ultimately winning.

In recent years, every World Cup champion faced challenges or crises in pre-tournament matches or shortly after kickoff.

Remarkably, this team remains competitive. Despite being the 24th most valuable squad in the tournament, they find themselves among the top 10 in the Elo Ratings. Luka Modric continues to perform excellently at a high level in professional soccer.

Eight years have passed since he won the Ballon d’Or; back then, it felt like more of a career-achievement accolade.

Currently, they hold a fifth-place Elo rating, tying with Portugal. They might be undervalued in this ranking system, as reflected by their pre-tournament betting odds sitting around 12th for winning the tournament. This discrepancy stems from only having one standout in Bayern Munich’s Luis Díaz.

Friendlies are far from perfect indicators, but Colombia’s struggles in the recent matches against Croatia and France pointed to a potential limitation for their player roster.

Congratulations are due to Morocco for winning the Africa Cup of Nations despite being controversially stripped of the title after a final loss to Senegal by a 1-0 margin.

While the emotional factors of a team can influence performance, predicting success based on those factors is tricky. However, it’s hard to overlook a group that has recently faced significant challenges and seeks to surmount them as they vie for victories in this World Cup.

Lastly, in light of the USMNT’s recent matches, it’s essential to recognize that Belgium is not the team it used to be. The renowned Golden Generation, featuring players like Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard, is fading, yet they remain in the top 10 of FIFA’s standings. Conversely, their Elo rating suggests they rank 19th, requiring the USMNT to outperform them to advance.

As for Argentina, the impact of Lionel Messi remains significant. In World Cup qualifying, he played the 10th-most minutes but still led the team in various key statistical measures.

For Portugal, the key question is whether Cristiano Ronaldo‘s scoring ability compensates for his declining overall contributions. Despite scoring four goals in World Cup qualifying, he ranked last in expected possession value among players logging over 350 minutes.

To put it in context, while Ronaldo finds ways to score, his defensive impact is negligible, presenting an argument for utilizing him as a substitute.

One interesting measure to consider is a hybrid of expected goals and expected possession value, offering an insight into both shot quality and overall playmaking effectiveness. Here are the top 10 performers in Europe’s top leagues so far:

Key takeaways from this analysis:

• Four of the top performers hail from France.
• Notably absent is Ousmane Dembélé, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner.