-
Ryan O’Hanlon
Multiple Authors
In the 21st century, Real Madrid has consistently loomed large over the world of football.
The allure of playing for the club is undeniable, largely because of its unparalleled financial resources. In the 2023-24 season, Real Madrid became the first club in history to surpass €1 billion in revenue, with the next richest club, Manchester City, trailing behind with €838 million.
However, institutional instability and a constant hunger from president Florentino Perez to recruit only the most recognizable talents have kept Madrid from fully leveraging its financial edge into a dominant presence akin to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Two years back, though, a shift seemed imminent.
In LaLiga, Madrid lost only one match, garnered 95 points, and was the top team in goals both for and against. In the UEFA Champions League, they avenged a previous semifinal embarrassment against Manchester City, winning on penalties, and narrowly advanced past Bayern Munich before clinching their 15th Champions League title with a 2-0 defeat of Borussia Dortmund.
Star forward Vinícius Júnior finished as the runner-up for the Ballon d’Or, with 19-year-old Jude Bellingham coming in third and earning LaLiga Player of the Year honors in his debut season. This was a team already at the pinnacle of the sport, bolstered by the potential addition of the world’s best player, Kylian Mbappé, after his contract with Paris Saint-Germain finally expired.
Instead of hunting down stars nearing the end of their prime, like Eden Hazard, Madrid shifted to signing top young prospects (like Vinícius), investing in superstars just hitting their stride (like Bellingham), and enticing established stars (like Mbappé) to come aboard without hefty transfer fees.
Yet, atop Europe’s footballing hierarchy now stands a seemingly unstoppable force—Paris Saint-Germain—while Real Madrid has succumbed to a streak of misfortune.
Since the summer of 2024, Madrid has failed to secure any major trophies, has not advanced past the Champions League quarterfinals, and now finds itself overshadowed by Barcelona, who are poised to claim LaLiga for a third consecutive year.
Real Madrid is currently under the management of Jose Mourinho—yes, the very same Mourinho whose last major trophy win was over ten years ago and whose recent coaching tenures have been less than stellar. This summer’s signings raise eyebrows, prompting a pivotal question: What exactly is Real Madrid doing?
Yan Diomande for a Club-Record Fee: Why?
The concept of expected possession value added measures how much a player’s non-scoring actions influence their team’s likelihood of scoring. Here’s a chart showcasing the top ten individual seasons in Europe’s Big Five leagues since 2022-23:
The standout on this list is Lionel Messi with PSG in 2022-23; followed by Michael Olise, Kieran Trippier, and others, leading to Yan Diomande at RB Leipzig last season.
What sets Diomande apart? He’s just 19, significantly younger than his peers on the list, indicating substantial potential for future stardom.
However, this transfer is not without its risks. Diomande has only commenced 34 professional domestic matches, and history shows that players who excel in the Bundesliga can struggle to replicate that success in more competitive leagues like LaLiga or the Premier League.
The €125 million transfer fee marks a club record for Real Madrid, but for a team with such ample funds, the payment specifics are largely irrelevant. The perplexing aspect lies in the strategic fit.
Initially, if Madrid were to part ways with Vinicius Junior this summer, Diomande’s acquisition would be more justifiable—replacing a top-tier, ball-dominant winger with another. However, with Vinicius deciding to stay, the transfer seems misaligned.
Vini and Mbappé’s styles clash; both prefer to operate on the left, and neither actively presses defensively, which limits Madrid’s tactical options and exacerbates defensive vulnerabilities.
2:22
Laurens: Diomande transfer is a huge risk for Real Madrid
Should Madrid wish to maintain the Mbappé-Vinicius duo, which they will, given their status as two of the three highest-paid players worldwide (with Manchester City’s Erling Haaland), then the surrounding players must adjust accordingly.
It’s uncertain how Diomande can fulfill this role. While he’s not a poor defender, his primary value isn’t in defensive duties. Despite recently playing as a right winger for Leipzig, he’s more naturally right-footed, which influences his playing style.
When positioned on the right at Leipzig, he registered more touches overall but fewer inside the box; when on the left, he had fewer touches but a greater presence in the box. This indicates his value may shift based on position. If both Vini and Mbappé crowd the left side, adding a third player who thrives in the box becomes problematic.
For Diomande to effectively complement Mbappé and Vinicius, he must adapt in ways not yet demonstrated.
Examining Real Madrid’s Other Summer Signings: What’s the Rationale?
Real Madrid’s prior season was undoubtedly disappointing.
After starting strong under Xabi Alonso, internal conflict led to a regression, culminating in his dismissal. A turbulent atmosphere saw players feuding within the locker room, and interim manager Alvaro Arbeloa struggled to right the ship.
Under Alonso, Madrid enjoyed an adjusted goal differential (70% expected goals, 30% goals) of +1.21, akin to Barcelona’s overall season performance, but under Arbeloa, it dipped to +0.77.
Despite a promising first half, Madrid is the second-oldest team in LaLiga, with an average player age of just 25.3. Factors like Bellingham’s and Arda Güler‘s limited playing time pointed to potential for internal growth.
This raises questions regarding four significant summer signings:
• Marc Cucurella: 28, fullback, €55 million from Chelsea
• Denzel Dumfries: 30, wingback, €20 million from Inter Milan
• Ibrahima Konaté: 27, center back, free agent from Liverpool
• Bernardo Silva: 31, midfielder, free agent from Manchester City
Although finances aren’t usually an issue for Real Madrid, they pay their players significantly, making it challenging for underperformers to leave. While Silva has a two-year contract, Dumfries and Konaté are locked in until 2030, and Cucurella is tied until 2032.
Both Cucurella and Dumfries have yet to demonstrate consistency at a level that clearly enhances Real Madrid. Silva may have excelled in the past, but he is past his prime, and Konaté has shown fluctuating performance as either a top-tier center back or a liability.
Considering their age, these signings are more likely to deteriorate than improve in Madrid.
With their pursuit of Manchester City’s Rodri, also 30, it appears Madrid is responding to recent struggles by resorting to “proven talent.” This often leads to acquiring players just as their age begins to wane.
Jose Mourinho: What’s the Thought Process?
Given the exits of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp, Mourinho stands as perhaps the most recognizable current club manager globally. Let’s examine his recent track record:
• Manchester United (2016-18): Finished sixth in his first year and clinched the Europa League, placed second the following year, fired midway through Year 3.
• Tottenham (2019-21): Completed portions of two seasons, finishing sixth and seventh, never led a complete season.
• Roma (2021-2024): Closed the first two seasons in sixth place, won the UEFA Conference League in Year 1, reached the UEFA Europa League final in Year 2, fired midway through the third season.
• Fenerbahce (2024-25): Finished second in Year 1, was dismissed before Year 2’s start after a playoff exit to Benfica.
• Benfica (2025-26): Undefeated in the Portuguese league, finished third, missed out on Champions League qualification.
These achievements are hardly impressive, especially when winning lower-tier competitions is considered a primary success. Typically, this wouldn’t qualify someone for a prestigious position like head coach at Real Madrid.
The reasoning behind Mourinho’s hiring becomes clearer when factoring in his celebrity status. His appointment may imply a return to Real Madrid’s traditional approach.
Historically, Madrid’s most successful coaches, including Carlo Ancelotti and Zinedine Zidane, have skillfully managed to integrate superstars into cohesive units. Mourinho, on the other hand, has often struggled in this regard, previously criticizing Vinicius Junior following a racially charged incident involving Benfica and has already questioned Bernardo Silva’s fitness shortly after his signing.
Furthermore, Mourinho’s approach diverges significantly from Barcelona’s current philosophy under Hansi Flick, who emphasizes an aggressive, effective defense that has resulted in remarkably few draws. In contrast, Mourinho’s recent teams have often settled for draws, with 22% of matches ending that way across his last three positions.
Mourinho’s hiring appears to cater more to image than to tactical effectiveness.
This doesn’t rule out the prospect of success; after all, Real Madrid still boasts a squad loaded with potential to compete for every major title, as evidenced by their standing as one of the world’s most valuable teams.
However, the looming risks now seem elevated, with the two essential superstars yet to align their playing styles and the club-record signing appearing to represent a challenge rather than a solution. The other recent acquisitions are either aging, unremarkable, or both, while the decision to appoint a manager with a decade-long absence from elite competition raises further concerns.
What could possibly go awry?