Reassessing the Premier…

Among soccer enthusiasts, it’s widely acknowledged that we can start making reliable assessments about team performance after about 10 games in the Premier League season.

Soccer is a sport known for its unpredictability and low scores, with fluctuating conversion rates. Additionally, teams often face unbalanced schedules that don’t align until the season wraps up, making it easy to jump to conclusions too early.

As we approach the Halloween season, we’ve certainly gleaned some insights into the Premier League. The challenge now is to determine what’s genuine and what’s not.

To navigate through the noise, Bill Connelly and Ryan O’Hanlon present the first edition of their Premier League power rankings for the season. They’ve ranked each team from 1-20, combined their rankings, and calculated an average to produce the final list.

Curious how much has changed in the opening two months? Keep reading for the details.

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Updated Premier League Team Rankings

Our latest rankings, the result of both Bill’s and Ryan’s assessments, reflect team positions from our last evaluation in August, just ahead of the season kick-off. Each team’s current points total and goal differential are included.

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Arsenal: Back on top — for now?

Here are some facts regarding Arsenal:

• They have already faced three of the most challenging matches on their fixture list: away games at Liverpool and Newcastle, along with a home game against Manchester City.
• William Saliba has participated in only 65% of the available minutes.
• Bukayo Saka has been on the field for just 55% of the available minutes.
• Martin Ødegaard has played only 32% of the available minutes.
• Kai Havertz has appeared in just 4.9% of the available minutes.
• Viktor Gyökeres has managed to score only two non-penalty goals.

That said, here are some positive aspects:

• Arsenal has netted the second-most goals in the Premier League: 14
• They have conceded the fewest goals in the league: 3
• Their goal differential is the best in the Premier League: +9
• They hold the best expected goal differential in the league: +7.5
• Arsenal tops the points table with 16 points.

Arsenal has been the standout team in the first seven fixtures, and unless one believes their top players aren’t performing well or that Gyökeres will begin to score less frequently, Mikel Arteta’s side is likely to improve.

They aren’t guaranteed to win the Premier League—there’s a long way to go—but they are increasingly deserving of better title odds than the rest of the teams in the league. — O’Hanlon

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Liverpool: Work in progress

What will stability look like for high-spending Liverpool when it arrives? The first two months of this season have been a wild ride.

The reigning champions lost two leads and fell to Crystal Palace in the Community Shield. They dropped three more leads before managing to earn victories against Bournemouth and Newcastle. They narrowly defeated Arsenal and Burnley before losing yet another lead in a Champions League match against Atlético Madrid. Six of their 11 games have been decided by a single goal, with another ending in a tie.

This has been nothing short of exhausting, pushing Liverpool down from favorites in both the Premier League and Champions League to a secondary position. Ranking them third feels generous at this point.

There are certainly worse places to be. However, unless they can rectify their transition defense issues, it’s hard to see them achieving their season objectives. So far, Liverpool ranks 11th in expected goals allowed per shot, only managing to place two or more defenders between the shot and goal just 68.6% of the time (ranking 20th).

On the offensive side, their overall stats remain quite good: They lead in possession (61.3%) and combined progressive plays, ranking third in goals. But, following the acquisition of several new attackers and two attack-minded fullbacks, their balance feels off, which is challenging to rectify amid a packed fixture schedule and multiple international breaks.

Getting the new attack fully functional while addressing backline concerns will be critical for Arne Slot. — Connelly

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Wait, Spurs are ninth?

Tottenham is currently on track to finish the season with 71 goals scored, 27 allowed, and 76 points. However, these statistics would have placed them third, first, and second, respectively, last season. Their projected +44 goal differential would lag just behind Liverpool’s previous league-leading figure.

Yet, they remain ranked ninth—exactly where they were positioned before the season began. Considering both authors ranked Arsenal first, are we letting our North London biases show? Are they really playing at a Champions League level? After last season’s struggles in avoiding relegation, shouldn’t they be performing better?

Indeed, while their defense has significantly improved this season (conceding 1.3 expected goals per game), their attack has declined to 1.1 expected goals per game. Thus, the transition from a per-game xG differential of -0.1 to -0.2 this season is concerning.

Tottenham’s notable success appears to stem from unsustainable finishing across the board, as they are exceeding their expected goals more than any other team in both offense and defense.

Unless Thomas Frank has devised a new strategy that catches the analytics community off guard, Tottenham’s statistical improvement may not be sustainable, particularly considering they have faced the league’s second-easiest schedule thus far. The upcoming months could present challenges. — O’Hanlon

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Whose rise is more sustainable: Bournemouth or Palace?

Bournemouth is closing in on a permanent spot among the elite. After finishing in the top 10 last season, they narrowly missed a Champions League placing due to injuries and a lack of depth.

In the early stages of this season, they sit just two points off the top, with promising performances including a victory over Spurs while only losing to Liverpool. Crystal Palace, for their part, has clinched two trophies in five months and bested Liverpool twice, with their first league defeat coming only on October 5.

Both teams find themselves in strong standings, not propelled by luck; they rank in the top eight for expected goal differential and have not dramatically exceeded those figures. Our rankings placed Bournemouth ahead due to their fresher roster, while Palace’s enduring success stems from a more defensive style of play.

Bournemouth leads the league in ball recoveries and defensive actions per game, playing the highest average possessions while allowing fewest passes per defensive action. Palace, on the other hand, relies on more opportunistic tactics, ranking low in possession initiation but excelling in creating scoring chances.

Oliver Glasner’s side thrives on a classic defend-and-counter strategy. Although less vibrant than Bournemouth’s approach, could it redefine success during an era increasingly focused on energy conservation? — Connelly

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Manchester United: Are they gaining traction?

Over an extended period, a team’s expected and actual goal totals typically align closely. In the short term, however, anomalies can skew perceptions. Currently, 14 Premier League teams have total goals within two of their expected counts, while four others fall within four. But two extreme outliers stand out this season: Tottenham, with 5.5 more actual goals than their expected total, and Manchester United, whose offensive potential shows a clear disconnect.

Despite generating a league-leading 2.0 xG per game, United finds itself ranking only eighth in actual goals scored. This ironic twist isn’t lost among analysts, especially after skepticism surrounding their offseason signings: Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, both coming off unsustainably prolific seasons.

This season so far, they’ve combined for 3.3 xG—even close to their previous seasons—but have managed just one goal together, reflecting a counterintuitive 70% underachievement. Bruno Fernandes has added to this picture with only two goals from 3.7 xG.

That might seem unpleasant, but it also signals that this pattern likely won’t persist. Eventually, when the xG metrics balance out and reflect actual performance, United’s strong numbers in shot attempts (15.7 per game), shots on target (4.9), and shooting efficiency should come into play. They rank second in total attempts, third in overall xG differential, and fifth in scoring off set pieces. While their shot quality might not be stellar, high shot volume is often a precursor to success in this competitive league. — Connelly

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Brighton and Villa Stagnating

Before the season, Aston Villa and Brighton appeared to be strong contenders for a top-five finish. Villa maintained its core while avoiding the demands of European competition, while Brighton had an impressive roster of emerging talent.

Brighton has yet to realize that potential; despite numerous promising young players, only four goals scored by those under 24 indicate a stagnation. The intriguing narrative that veteran striker Danny Welbeck remains a key contributor underscores the current struggles in their attack.

Aston Villa’s performance has been noticeably worse; they currently hold one of the lowest expected-goal differentials in the league and possess little attacking threat. With a struggling Ollie Watkins managing just one goal despite regular appearances, their situation appears precarious.

The looming reality is that Villa has yet to face top-tier teams like Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, or Chelsea, which raises concerns for their future prospects. — O’Hanlon

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Can Two Promoted Teams Avoid Relegation?

At this point last season, the newly promoted teams (Leicester City, Ipswich, and Southampton) had accumulated a mere 11 points from 21 matches. None displayed any signs of a successful season.

This season’s promoted trio—Sunderland, Leeds United, and Burnley—has gathered a respectable 23 points across 21 games. While Burnley stands out as the least optimistic, posting the worst xG differential, both Leeds and Sunderland appear to have promising outlooks for survival.

We were hopeful for Leeds and Sunderland entering the season; while initial assessments labeled them as relegation candidates, they both demonstrate a solid structure. Leeds are generating fine defensive performances and quick-striking attacks, potentially allowing for future growth.

Meanwhile, Sunderland, which struggled last season, has skillfully bolstered depth and infused the squad with young talent. Their performance has reflected well, recording only two losses in the first seven games, placing them comfortably above the relegation zone.

The season may be long, but both Leeds and Sunderland are showing that they’re capable of competing at the Premier League level, especially as some of their rivals struggle. — Connelly

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Who’s Most at Risk: Forest, Wolves, or West Ham?

If you’re trying to dodge relegation, which team do you prefer to be in?

Team A: They’ve yet to notch a win and only registered two points—lowest in the league—but have no coaching change turmoil and an underlying performance that suggests improvement. Their expected goals indicate they’re only slightly below average, hinting at positive prospects if results improve.

Team B: They’re on their third manager since January, their defense has leaked goals at the highest rate, and they face significant pressure as older players in key positions struggle. They sit 19th, with only four points and without a clear path to recovery.

Team C: They achieved seventh place last season and participated in Europe, adding ample financial resources. Their spending spree did not pay off, with a managerial shift resulting in conflicting styles that seem misaligned. They’ve amassed just one point above the relegation zone, while battling the league’s second-worst expected-goal differential.

If you haven’t guessed, Team A is Wolves, Team B is West Ham, and Team C is Nottingham Forest. In the current scenario, I favor Team A based on point accumulation, followed by Team B and then C. However, concerning future performances, the downward trend seems most likely for Wolves, while West Ham appears stagnant, and Forest could implode under pressure. — O’Hanlon