Spanish Supercopa: Will…

The defense of the Barcelona team in the Spanish Supercopa kicks off on Wednesday as they face Athletic Club in Saudi Arabia. The next day, the focus shifts to an all-Madrid semifinal where Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid will clash with Atlético Madrid.

Which team is likely to emerge victorious and take home the trophy? Is another Clásico final on the horizon?

Alex Kirkland and Sam Marsden are here to preview all the action. Don’t forget, you can stream each game LIVE on ESPN+ (U.S. only).

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Where is the Spanish Supercopa being played, and why?

Initially, the Supercopa was dismissed as a mere two-legged pre-season summer friendly with minimal interest. Now, it has transformed into a lucrative four-team January tournament taking place under the Saudi Arabian sun, which also serves as a crucial measure of the Spanish season’s trajectory as it heats up.

For many years, the Supercopa was contested by the previous season’s LaLiga and Copa del Rey winners, competing in home-and-away matches. The tournament made its first international outing in 2018 in Tangiers, Morocco before transitioning to Saudi Arabia in 2019, which included a lucrative deal worth around €40 million annually through 2029. Along with the location change, the format expanded to a week-long “final four” comprising the top two league finishers and both Copa del Rey finalists, shifting from summer to January.

This agreement, made under former RFEF president Luis Rubiales and facilitated by Gerard Piqué’s company, Kosmos, has been incredibly profitable for the Spanish football federation. A standout attraction for Saudi Arabia remains the opportunity to host a competitive Clásico, with penalties incorporated in the contract if either Madrid or Barcelona fails to qualify.

Over the past tournament iterations, Jeddah has welcomed two events, while three were held in Riyadh, with the 2021 version restricted to Spain due to COVID-19 protocols. This week, the tournament returns to the Alinma Stadium within King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah. Current RFEF president Rafael Louzan has indicated that a location reconsideration isn’t planned anytime soon.

“The last tournament held before moving to Arabia generated €1 million; this edition will generate €51 million for Spanish football,” he stated in October. — Kirkland

Which teams are competing in the Spanish Supercopa, and how did they qualify?

The four most historically successful clubs in Spain, namely Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, and Athletic Club, will be vying for the Supercopa trophy in Saudi Arabia this month.

The tournament spots are awarded to the winners and runners-up of LaLiga and the Copa del Rey. In cases of overlap, the third finishing team in the league, and potentially the fourth as well, gains entry. This year, Barcelona qualified as both LaLiga and Copa winners; Madrid as the runner-up in both competitions; while Atlético (third) and Athletic (fourth) earned their places through league results that will bring them substantial financial rewards.

Since the shift to a four-team format in 2020, Barcelona and Madrid have been consistent participants in all editions, while Atlético and Athletic will appear for the fourth time. Athletic remains the sole club outside the Clásico contenders to have secured the Supercopa title in its current format, having defeated Barcelona in the 2021 final. Madrid won it three times, while current champions Barcelona hold two titles.

The semifinal matches promise excitement; Barcelona faces Athletic on Wednesday, aiming for their fourth trophy under Hansi Flick’s leadership over the past 18 months. This matchup sets the stage for Thursday’s Madrid derby, with Alonso’s Real seeking vengeance for the 5-2 thrashing Atletico handed them in La Liga last September. — Marsden

Will we witness another Clásico final in the Spanish Supercopa?

Let’s review recent finals since the four-team format was introduced: notable matchups have included Real Madrid vs. Atlético (2020), Athletic Club vs. Barcelona (2021), Real Madrid vs. Athletic Club (2022), and three consecutive Real Madrid vs. Barcelona encounters from 2023 to 2025. The trend points clearly toward a competitive Clásico over the last three seasons. Will this pattern hold in 2026?

Barcelona is heavily favored to defeat Athletic in Wednesday’s semifinal, having previously triumphed with a 4-0 scoreline in their La Liga matchup last November. Athletic, struggling this season with 12 losses across all competitions, comes into this tournament following a 1-1 draw against Osasuna.

While Barça has not been at their best, recently relying on goalkeeper Joan García for their 2-0 victory against Espanyol in the derby, they have achieved nine consecutive wins. Athletic’s key player, Nico Williams, has seen a decline in form with only three goals this season; thus, it’s difficult to foresee an Athletic victory, despite the Williams brothers’ pace possibly causing issues for Flick’s defense.

Contrastingly, Thursday’s Madrid derby poses a tougher challenge to call. Atlético punctuated their previous encounter with a resounding 5-2 victory over Real in September, marking one of the season’s lowest moments for coach Alonso. Yet just recently, Real Madrid showcased their best form, defeating Real Betis 5-1 even in the absence of their injured star striker Kylian Mbappé.

In terms of team form, Atlético recently managed just a 1-1 draw against Real Sociedad and suffered losses to both Barça and Athletic just before the holidays, raising doubts about their title challenge aspirations.

Will Alonso apply lessons learned from the September derby upset? He possesses tactical flexibility and acumen as a coach, but with the season’s first half being less than stellar, much depends on Mbappé’s fitness following his knee injury. Alonso’s recent statements raised concerns about the forward’s status for the tournament. Regardless, without Mbappé, young talent Gonzalo García stepped up remarkably, scoring a hat trick against Betis.

In conclusion, yes, it seems likely we might witness a Clásico final. However, it wouldn’t be wise to discount a potential Barcelona vs. Atlético final either. — Kirkland

What have been the top five matches since the Spanish Supercopa began its new format?

5. 2020 final: Real Madrid 0-0 Atlético (4-1 on penalties)

This match featured a tense 0-0 draw that still captivated, highlighted by a memorable moment when Atlético’s Álvaro Morata was clean through in extra time and Real’s Federico Valverde, in a desperate attempt to stop him, took him down. Valverde was sent off, but Atlético couldn’t capitalize on the resulting free kick, allowing Madrid to prevail in the shootout, with Valverde named man of the match, leading even Atlético’s Diego Simeone to commend his game-saving challenge.

4. 2020 semifinal: Barcelona 2-3 Atlético

The RFEF couldn’t have wished for a better opening match than this eventful five-goal thriller that resulted in Ernesto Valverde getting sacked as Barça manager. Following goals from Lionel Messi and Antoine Griezmann that brought Barça back into the game after Koke’s opener, a late penalty from Morata and a last-minute winner from Ángel Correa sealed the match for Atlético and marked the end of Valverde’s tenure at Barcelona.

3. 2025 final: Real Madrid 2-5 Barcelona

The most recent final was nothing short of wild, beginning with Mbappé’s early opener for Madrid, only for Barcelona to respond with four goals before halftime. The match saw Wojciech Szczęsny dismissed in the second half; nevertheless, Barcelona held on to secure their 15th Supercopa title, marking a magnificent start to Flick’s reign.

2. 2021 final: Barça 2-3 Athletic Club (after extra time)

This match was filled with drama; Barcelona squandered a 2-1 lead late in the game, leading to Athletic’s surprise victory and Asier Villalibre’s late equalizer. The moment that stood out was Iñaki Williams’ stunning winner, with the image of the bearded Villalibre celebrating by playing the trumpet forever etched in memory.

1. 2024 semifinal: Real Madrid 5-3 Atlético (after extra time)

Incredibly, Madrid’s 2024 Supercopa journey was a remarkable twist; after thrilling action across the pitch, including Vinícius Júnior’s phenomenal first-half hat-trick in the final against Barcelona, they first edged out Atlético in a breathtaking semifinal that delivered eight goals and seven different scorers, with Atlético initially leading the charge. Dani Carvajal’s late equalizer sent the game into extra time, where Joselu and Brahim Díaz completed the comeback to seal a 5-3 victory in what Ancelotti remarked was a physically demanding match.

Spanish Supercopa odds (via DraftKings)

To advance:

Barcelona: -425
Real Madrid: -130
Atlético Madrid: +105
Athletic Club: +310