Top European Teams Today:…

Bayern Munich has long reigned over the Bundesliga, assembling rosters filled with stellar talent from across the nation. Notable players, whether current or past, have often found a home with the 33-time champions, ranging from Manuel Neuer (Schalke 04) and Robert Lewandowski (Borussia Dortmund) to legends like Joshua Kimmich (RB Leipzig), Oliver Kahn (Karlsruher SC), and Lothar Matthäus (Borussia Mönchengladbach).

This past summer, however, Bayern appeared to enter a period of uncertainty. Star midfielder Florian Wirtz opted for a move to Liverpool instead of Bayern. Following their withdrawal from pursuing Nick Woltemade from Stuttgart, who was deemed too costly, they witnessed Newcastle United secure his signature. Instead of enhancing their squad with young superstars, Bayern acquired seasoned players like Luis Díaz from Liverpool and Jonathan Tah from Bayer Leverkusen, alongside a costly loan for Nicolas Jackson from Chelsea. Despite a disappointing transfer window, Bayern managed to assemble an impressive team.

Injuries to star players Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies haven’t slowed down Vincent Kompany’s squad in the 2025-26 season. With nine matches played across the Bundesliga, UEFA Champions League, and DFB-Pokal, Bayern has achieved nine victories, outscoring opponents 36-7. Notable wins include a 9-0 rout against RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt, along with a commanding 3-1 triumph over Chelsea in the Champions League.

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Below is a ranking of the top 20 teams from Europe’s major leagues based on “adjusted goal differential,” a combination of 30% goal differential and 70% expected goals (xG) differential in 11 vs. 11 situations, excluding domestic cup play due to mismatches.

This list isn’t adjusted for opponents and the short timeframe may not reflect predictive accuracy, but it highlights teams currently in strong form, particularly Bayern’s exceptional start.

1. Bayern Munich

Last two months: Eight matches, 24 points (3.00 PPG), +2.72 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Borussia Dortmund (Oct. 18), Club Brugge (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), at Borussia Monchengladbach (Oct. 25), at FC Cologne (Oct. 29)

Bayern’s form has led to some skewed trends:

Bayern is averaging over four goals per Bundesliga match while conceding just three in six games. Harry Kane netted 17 goals in nine matches, leading the league, with or without spot-kicks included. His total of 14 goals and assists outperforms teammates Serge Gnabry (six) and newly signed Michael Olise (five). Furthermore, Díaz ranks sixth in ball recoveries, showcasing his relentless energy.

Kompany’s strategies are proving effective. Full back Raphaël Guerreiro is spending time in the attacking midfield position during Musiala’s absence, while midfielder Konrad Laimer has solidified the left back position in place of Davies. The question remains whether such performance levels can be sustained as most of their players with significant minutes are experienced veterans.

Last two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +1.58 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At AS Roma (Oct. 18), at Union St.-Gilloise (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Napoli (Oct. 25), Fiorentina (Oct. 29)

Following a mediocre showing at the Club World Cup and disappointing Serie A results, manager Cristian Chivu saw the team struggle initially this season. However, since the commencement of Champions League action, Inter has been formidable, winning all five group matches.

Six players have scored multiple goals this season, with Federico Dimarco and rising star Ange-Yoan Bonny lead the league with three assists each.

Last two months: Nine matches, 22 points (2.44 PPG), +1.37 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Fulham (Oct. 18), Atlético Madrid (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), Crystal Palace (Oct. 26), Brighton & Hove Albion (Oct. 29)

Season after season, Arsenal is redefining their identity. After seven Premier League matches, they lead the league in defensive stats – lowest goals allowed (three), xG allowed (4.4), and shots allowed (56). Their strength lies in staunch defense and set-piece dominance, solidifying their contender status for the Premier League and Champions League.

While their style might lack flamboyance, efficiency and effectiveness remain their strongest attributes. New recruits like midfielder Martín Zubimendi and forward Viktor Gyökeres are now key starters, contributing significantly to the team’s success.

Last two months: 10 matches, 27 points (2.70 PPG), +1.36 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Getafe (Oct. 19), Juventus (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), Barcelona (Oct. 26)

After a disappointing Madrid derby against Atlético Madrid, and struggling with set piece defenses, the performance of key players Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo being below expected levels has raised some concerns within the team. Yet, having won nine of ten matches with a solid goal-scoring record, Los Blancos have remained competitive, aided by contributions from younger talents Arda Güler and Franco Mastantuono. Overall, the team is performing well, ranking high in turnovers forced.

Last two months: Nine matches, 22 points (2.44 PPG), +1.02 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Strasbourg (Oct. 17), at Bayer Leverkusen (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Brest (Oct. 25), at Lorient (Oct. 29)

PSG’s season presence feels off, missing several key players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Marquinhos, but they still managed to win both Champions League matches, including a game against Barcelona. Currently, they possess only two missteps, showcasing resilience despite not having their complete lineup.

Bearing in mind the Ligue 1 standings, PSG leads with a slim margin over teams like Lyon and Marseille. As the season progresses, it will be fascinating to see the resurgence of the team once their key players return to full fitness.

Last two months: Six matches, 13 points (2.17 PPG), +0.95 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Fiorentina (Oct. 19), Pisa (Oct. 24), at Atalanta (Oct. 28)

Following last season’s tumultuous eighth-place finish, AC Milan missed out on European competitions, resulting in both financial constraints and a potential reduction in player fatigue. Their most touted acquisition, 40-year-old Luka Modric, has provided leadership on and off the pitch.

With veterans like Adrien Rabiot and Christopher Nkunku joining him, Modric’s presence and influence have become pivotal. Milan is currently unbeaten since a loss to Cremonese, and their previous win over Napoli strengthened their title chase.

7. Barcelona

Last two months: 10 matches, 22 points (2.20 PPG), +0.85 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Girona (Oct. 18), Olympiacos (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Real Madrid (Oct. 26)

Barcelona’s off-pitch challenges haven’t translated into results on the pitch. They remain without a home and have recently dealt with injuries to key players like Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, while Gavi faces a prolonged recovery. Despite a recent loss to PSG, Barcelona’s underlying stats indicate they are still well-positioned as contenders in La Liga.

8. Atlético Madrid

Last two months: 10 matches, 16 points (1.60 PPG), +0.82 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Osasuna (Oct. 18), at Arsenal (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Real Betis (Oct. 27)

Atlético started the season slow, winning only one of their first six matches before rebounding impressively with back-to-back wins against Real Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt. Nonetheless, their inconsistency has led to erratic performances, making it difficult to gauge their true potential.

9. Strasbourg

Last two months: 10 matches, 22 points (2.20 PPG), +0.77 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At PSG (Oct. 17), Jagiellonia Bialystok (Oct. 23; UEFA Conference League), at Lyon (Oct. 26), AJ Auxerre (Oct. 29)

The situation surrounding Strasbourg is peculiar. On one hand, they seem akin to a Chelsea feeder club, creating some discontent; on the other, their young lineup showcases impressive form. Despite not having finished in the top five since 1980, they find themselves in contention near the top of the league standings.

This resurgence is propelled by standout performances from forwards Joaquín Panichelli and Emanuel Emegha, who are executing extremely well in their attack, contributing to a successful start to the season.

10. Lyon

Last two months: Nine matches, 21 points (2.33 PPG), +0.76 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Nice (Oct. 18), FC Basel (Oct. 23; UEFA Europa League), Strasbourg (Oct. 26), at Paris FC (Oct. 29)

Despite serious financial struggles nearly leading to relegation this summer, Lyon has rallied. The team is competing admirably this season, winning eight of nine matches and now standing just a point behind PSG.

In addition, the team’s collective scoring efforts encompass a range of players, with significant contributions from Moussa Niakhaté stepping up defensive play as well. Under manager Paulo Fonseca’s guidance, Lyon is proving they can still find success amidst challenges.

11. Crystal Palace

Last two months: 10 matches, 19 points (1.90 PPG), +0.74 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: AFC Bournemouth (Oct. 18), AEK Larnaca (Oct. 23; UEFA Conference League), at Arsenal (Oct. 26), at Liverpool (Oct. 29)

Crystal Palace’s season thus far has shown inconsistencies, with numerous draws culminating in underwhelming scoring outputs. While they’ve struggled to convert opportunities into goals, their defensive unit maintains strong statistics, out-performing their opponents’ xG. The team capitalizes on counter-attacks and is executing Oliver Glasner’s tactics effectively.

12. Borussia Dortmund

Last two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.73 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Bayern Munich (Oct. 18), at F.C. København (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), FC Cologne (Oct. 25), at Eintracht Frankfurt (Oct. 28), at FC Augsburg (Oct. 31)

In the last 21 competitive matches dating back to the previous season, Borussia Dortmund has lost just once. Despite being a few points behind Bayern in the Bundesliga standings, they hold their ground as strong contenders, boasting impressive offensive and defensive stats.

With striker Serhou Guirassy leading the scoring tally for non-Bayern players and excellent defensive performances across the board, they are set for an upward trajectory.

Last two months: Nine matches, 17 points (1.89 PPG), +0.68 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Everton (Oct. 18), at Villarreal (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Aston Villa (Oct. 26), at Swansea City (Oct. 29; Carabao Cup)

Manchester City is in search of clarity this season, currently holding the most passing attempts and completion rates, but struggling with a lack of identity in their attack. However, they may soon discover added potential in utilizing their counterplays, particularly with Erling Haaland‘s prowess. Currently in fifth place in the league, City’s performance metrics suggest an upswing may not be far off.

14. Marseille

Last two months: Nine matches, 18 points (2.00 PPG), +0.64 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Le Havre (Oct. 18), at Sporting CP (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), at Lens (Oct. 25), Angers (Oct. 29)

After addressing internal issues earlier this season, Marseille has turned their campaign around, winning five of their last six matches. Their triumph over PSG and solid performances against Real Madrid further illustrate their potential. With contributions from key players like Mason Greenwood and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, they are positioned well for the remainder of the season under Roberto de Zerbi’s management.

15. Bayer Leverkusen

Last two months: Eight matches, 13 points (1.63 PPG), +0.56 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Mainz (Oct. 18), PSG (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), SC Freiburg (Oct. 26), at SC Paderborn 07 (Oct. 29; DFB-Pokal)

Bayer Leverkusen has navigated a tumultuous beginning to the season, amassing only 13 points from eight games. Despite this rocky start, positive xG differentials showcase promise, and their recent managerial change may provide the spark needed to improve results.

Under the new direction of Kasper Hjulmand, several players have stepped up, most notably Alejandro Grimaldo, who has made significant contributions to the team’s offense.

16. Newcastle United

Last two months: Nine matches, 12 points (1.33 PPG), +0.55 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Brighton (Oct. 18), Benfica (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), Fulham (Oct. 25), Tottenham Hotspur (Oct. 29)

Newcastle has had a challenging start to the season, following an uptick in expectations with crucial signings. Despite initial struggles, they have shown resilience, scoring multiple goals in their latest matches and boasting solid defensive performances.

The team possesses an impressive defensive record, allowing them to remain competitive while the attack gains momentum.

17. Napoli

Last two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.51 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Torino (Oct. 18), at PSV Eindhoven (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), Inter Milan (Oct. 25), at Lecce (Oct. 28)

Napoli has retained a majority of their squad following their successful Scudetto campaign, coupled with noteworthy signings. They’ve performed admirably, with their only defeats coming against high-profile clubs while demonstrating significant xG advantages.

With key players like Kevin De Bruyne leading the league in chance creation, Napoli looks well-positioned for another successful title pursuit.

18. Chelsea

Last two months: Nine matches, 14 points (1.56 PPG), +0.48 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: At Nottingham Forest (Oct. 18), Ajax (Oct. 22), Sunderland (Oct. 25), at Wolverhampton Wanderers (Oct. 29; Carabao Cup)

Chelsea’s season has been plagued by setbacks, including numerous red card incidents and key player injuries affecting their lineup. Nevertheless, standout performances from João Pedro and midfield prowess from Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo have helped keep the team afloat. Despite struggles, they emerged with momentum following a win against Liverpool before the international break.

Last two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.45 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Inter Milan (Oct. 18), Viktoria Plzen (Oct. 23; UEFA Europa League), at Sassuolo (Oct. 26), Parma (Oct. 29)

Despite lacking their typical offensive verve, Roma has maintained competitiveness with a couple of narrow losses. Their hard work is reflected in the way players such as Matìas Soulè and Manu Koné contribute significantly to ball recoveries, placing them among Serie A’s best. As they attempt to secure their footing in a challenging season, their performance metrics suggest a potential surge as the campaign unfolds.

20. Liverpool

Last two months: Nine matches, 18 points (2.00 PPG), +0.43 adjusted goal differential
Upcoming matches in October: Manchester United (Oct. 19), at Eintracht Frankfurt (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), at Brentford (Oct. 25), Crystal Palace (Oct. 29; Carabao Cup)

After a strong start, Liverpool’s form has dulled, suffering three consecutive losses. Their mixed results amid significant squad investments reflect ongoing challenges surrounding team cohesion and defensive organization. Despite signs of brilliance from Dominik Szoboszlai, pressing strategies have not yet found their rhythm.

The struggle for Liverpool lies in creating offensive synergy as they integrate new signings into the squad, thus affecting defensive stability. The impending fixtures could provide an opportunity to regain form and reshape their season.

The rest of the top 30

21. Como: +0.42
22. Stuttgart: +0.38
23. Brest: +0.35
24. Atalanta: +0.35
25. Athletic Club: +0.34
26. Rayo Vallecano: +0.34
27. AFC Bournemouth: +0.29
28. Espanyol: +0.28
29. Freiburg: +0.26
30. Real Betis: +0.24