Why Man United Should…

No need to maintain any pretense here.

The first time Manchester United dismissed their difficult Portuguese manager with the club sitting just outside the Champions League spots, they appointed a popular ex-player with no significant managerial experience as the interim coach … and then achieved 14 wins in their next 19 matches. Players expressed sentiments like this: “Of course we want him to stay. The results have been fantastic.” And this: “What more could he need to do?” Or this: “I don’t believe I need to elaborate after these results; it seems assured.”

And indeed, it became clear that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s tenure as permanent manager would last a little over a season following Jose Mourinho.

Fast forward to this season, and Manchester United once again parted ways with their cantankerous Portuguese manager, and hired another beloved former player with no high-level managerial experience as an interim … this time, he secured 10 victories in his opening 15 matches.

Players are expressing thoughts about Michael Carrick like this: “In my view, he absolutely deserves the Manchester United position; he’s demonstrated outstanding qualities to be the team’s coach.” And this: “Being a part of everything he achieved is a delight, and naturally, I believe he deserves it.” Or this: “You want to follow him. You want to fight for him. You want to give your all for him on the field.”

With Man United securing Champions League qualification for the first time in three seasons—just a year after finishing in 15th place under Ruben Amorim—and players eager to put it all on the line for him, it appears likely that Manchester United will make Michael Carrick their permanent manager. In many respects, it seems like the obvious path forward.

However, hasn’t United attempted this before? Shouldn’t they exercise some caution before getting too carried away with a strong run of short-term success?

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– Lamine Yamal and the risks of too much of a good thing
– What the Champions League reveals about the Premier League
– USMNT depth chart: Ranking the top 15 players in every position for the 2026 World Cup

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The argument for Manchester United to retain Carrick

This should be straightforward, right?

Since Carrick took charge at Old Trafford, Manchester United have amassed more points than any other team in the Premier League:

Projected over a full season, United are on course for 84 points. If Arsenal wins their last two games, they will finish the season with 85 points. Thus, one can understand the optimism expressed by players like Mason Mount, who believes this squad can compete for the Premier League title next season.

Moreover, these were not just easy points. United have faced every top five team in the league since Carrick took the reins. Their record against Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Aston Villa? A perfect 15 points from a possible 15. They’ve also triumphed over Chelsea and Spurs, less impressive perhaps, but remember that all these clubs have participated in the Champions League over the last two years, and United have defeated them in all seven encounters.

Additionally, Carrick has successfully avoided the mistakes that characterizes Amorim’s tenure, particularly in managing emerging talents. Under Amorim, Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho were effectively marginalized due to Amorim’s rigid management style, with Kobbie Mainoo seeing minimal playing time.

During Amorim’s reign, the now-21-year-old Mainoo participated in just 12% of league minutes. Under Carrick? Mainoo is now playing 92% of the time, has signed a new contract, and is publicly expressing his commitment to fighting for Carrick.

As I’ve previously noted, for United to reclaim their competitive edge, they must successfully integrate a few academy stars.

If clubs like Liverpool or Arsenal brought in players of the caliber of Trent Alexander-Arnold or Bukayo Saka, they would have to spend upwards of $200 million on fees and salaries. Instead, they’ve reaped years of exceptional output without incurring transfer fees, allowing them to bolster other squad areas to become two of the world’s top teams.

This is impossible if your coach isn’t prepared to field promising players. United would be fortunate if Mainoo approaches the performances of TAA and Saka, yet there’s no sign that Carrick would be unwilling to provide opportunities for other rising talents from the academy.

Lastly, Carrick has redefined United’s style of play. Under Amorim, the team adopted a chaotic, high-pressure approach resulting in many shots and a lack of organization. This is in stark contrast to Carrick’s approach, where they now play more tactically organized without pressing high (as indicated by passes per defensive action) and remain calm even in high-pressure situations (buildup pass completion percentage):

Thus, Carrick has instilled a renewed focus on youth, fundamentally changed United’s tactical framework, and importantly, is winning more matches than anyone else in the league. Yet …

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The argument against keeping Carrick

What does management really entail? With graduation weekend recently passed at the university where I teach, I find myself pondering this existential question. What exactly is the role of a manager?

In the broadest sense, a manager’s task is to maximize players’ performance based on their collective talent. This encompasses tactical instructions, player selection, substitution strategy, morale enhancement, fan engagement, technical guidance, recruiting coaching staff, opponent analysis, self-evaluation and further development, adequately reacting to unexpected situations, and shielding your team from upper management.

That’s quite a lot! The complexity increases with every additional game played, and United hasn’t faced many games since Carrick took over. Due to Amorim’s previous tenure, the team he inherited had already been eliminated from both domestic cup competitions and hadn’t even reached the Conference League.

In total, Carrick has managed 15 games since replacing Amorim. To contrast, here’s how many matches the Premier League teams that qualified for European competitions have played during the same period:

• Arsenal: 29
• Manchester City, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle: 25
• Liverpool, Aston Villa: 24
• Crystal Palace: 22
• Tottenham: 19

There are two critical observations here. Firstly, coaching a team once a week, as Carrick has done, is fundamentally different from managing a squad that competes twice a week. With more frequent matches, there is less time for training due to travel and playing, affecting match preparation significantly. Moreover, you also have to manage player rotations to minimize injuries.

The least effective coaches tend to optimize for immediate games, while the best coaches at elite clubs must implement changes that may weaken their team in the short term but enhance their prospects for the entire season. These are complex decisions, and we have yet to see Carrick confront any of these challenges.

Secondly, due to these factors, teams that compete in Europe often struggle in the Premier League with an increased schedule. Statistical evidence indicates that three extra European matches lead to the loss of approximately one point in the Premier League.

This suggests that United may face challenges next season as they enter the Champions League and extend their runs in domestic cups. Additionally, they might struggle as they aren’t excelling in the areas that typically lead to winning matches.

While they are scoring goals—because goals win matches—this sport is inherently low-scoring and subject to considerable randomness. Under Carrick’s management, United hasn’t excelled in the aspects that typically result in scoring.

Here is United’s standing in the Premier League since Carrick’s appointment regarding non-penalty expected goal differential:

And here’s where they ranked before his arrival:

Per game, they were at plus-0.35 under Amorim, while they are now at plus-0.15 under Carrick. Breaking it down further for expected goals this season:

• Attacking under Amorim: 32 non-penalty goals from approximately 33 xG
• Attacking under Carrick: 25 non-penalty goals from 19 xG

• Defending under Amorim: 29 non-penalty goals conceded from 26 xG
• Defending under Carrick: 13 non-penalty goals conceded from 16 xG

In total, this represents a plus-3 non-penalty goal differential under Amorim from a collection of shots expected to be closer to plus-7, while Carrick’s squad has a plus-12 goal differential from shots we expected to be worth around plus-3. These discrepancies fall well within the realm of randomness that is out of a manager’s control over a limited season, illustrating the variance in results between the two coaches.

This pattern has recurred under nearly every manager since Sir Alex Ferguson, with the exceptions being Amorim, showcasing successful starts that eventually falter without a foundation of solid chance creation and defense. We’ve previously seen this with Louis van Gaal, Mourinho, Solskjaer, Erik ten Hag, and even David Moyes.

Care to guess which team finished the season with 89 points, winning the league by an 11-point gap?

It was Manchester United, who captured the title through extraordinary (and unsustainable) finishing from Robin van Persie in Ferguson’s final year at the helm.

Following that success, they regressed the subsequent season—while Liverpool and Manchester City fought for the title. To consistently win, a team must continually create higher-quality chances than their opponents—this is a lesson United learns repeatedly, yet they’ve failed to fully grasp its meaning.

Of course, other factors can influence a team’s ability to create better opportunities than opponents; however, Carrick’s United has not succeeded in any of these aspects, either. They are only controlling 48% of final-third possession in matches and permitting more touches inside their own penalty area (25) than they generate in the opponent’s box (24).

Amorim wasn’t dismissed due to overseeing a subpar team. Instead, he was removed for his refusal to integrate into a modern decision-making structure, his extreme inflexibility, and his alienation of numerous talented homegrown players.

Conversely, Carrick embodies the opposite of those attributes, presenting an antithesis to what United has been since Ferguson’s departure: costly, emotional, and overconfident. There is a compelling argument that he’s precisely what United requires—especially at a time when managerial influence is waning day by day.

United possesses an array of insights that remain hidden from outside observers, and Carrick did guide a more possession-oriented team during his time in the Championship with Middlesbrough (albeit without effective pressing). If he fulfills the expectations outlined based on observed practices and there’s confidence that additional talent will elevate this possession-focused approach into impactful performances, then it would make sense to continue his stewardship.

However, if you are among those making this crucial decision, it’s essential to reconsider.

Imagine there were another coach at a different club, sharing an identical profile: lacking the favorable underlying statistics that predict future success, showing no evidence of fostering a possession-oriented style in a top league, and having no prior experience managing through the challenges of a four-competition campaign.

If your ultimate goal is to win the Premier League and compete in Europe, would you appoint such a coach?