Why Winning the Summer…

Congratulations on winning the summer transfer window!

What comes next?

You might be wary of finding out—just ask Liverpool.

After claiming the Premier League title for the 2024-25 season, Liverpool spent the subsequent transfer window amassing numerous record-signings, star attackers, talented fullbacks, defensive reinforcements, and a clutch of promising young players. Liverpool was hailed as the top club in England, and on paper, their squad seemed to improve significantly.

However, when they took the field, the results were disappointing. They finished in fifth place and only secured a Champions League spot thanks to a new rule granting an additional slot to the Premier League. They saw a drop-off of 24 points from the previous season and ultimately parted ways with coach Arne Slot just a year after he led them to their second Premier League title.

This wasn’t just any club: it was Liverpool, renowned for having one of the sport’s most esteemed decision-making frameworks. So if Liverpool could “win the transfer window” and still see a decline, what does that imply for whichever team we hail as the victor of this summer’s window?

It may not truly be a curse, but the notion that “winning the transfer window” equates to on-field success is clearly misplaced.

The Winners of the Last 10 Summer Transfer Windows

Identifying transfer window winners is somewhat subjective, with some summers showcasing clearer victors than others. I’ve revisited the last decade of summer transfer activities to pinpoint which clubs received accolades from various media outlets (including ESPN) for their summer dealings.

Additionally, I utilized an advanced analytical metric known as “what I remember feeling at the time” to highlight a singular winner for each summer. Whether you agree with my selections is secondary. The crucial element is to recognize 10 clubs that were universally acknowledged for their smart signings during the respective windows.

Here’s that compilation:

2016: Manchester United. They shattered the transfer record by acquiring Paul Pogba right after his pivotal role in leading Juventus to a Champions League final. They also acquired one of the league’s top young center-backs, Eric Bailly from Villarreal, and a standout attacking midfielder, Henrikh Mkhitaryan from Borussia Dortmund. They even signed a free agent by the name of “Zlatan Ibrahimovic.”

2017: Paris Saint-Germain. While this summer primarily funded the best Premier League squad in history—Manchester City went on to achieve 100 points in Pep Guardiola’s second season—PSG was undeniably the standout winner for 2017. They signed Kylian Mbappé … but that was almost overshadowed by their record-setting acquisition of Neymar from Barcelona, which more than doubled the fee United paid for Pogba the year prior.

2018: Liverpool. A day after suffering defeat in the Champions League final against Real Madrid, Liverpool announced the signing of Fabinho from Monaco. They had previously secured the top young midfielder in Europe, Naby Keita from RB Leipzig. Not only did they bolster their midfield, but they also replaced goalkeeper Loris Karius—who made several key errors in the final—with world-class keeper Alisson Becker from Roma. They also added attacking depth by signing Xherdan Shaqiri at a discount.

2019: Arsenal. At ESPN, our headline noted Arsenal as “the big winners” after their club-record acquisition of winger Nicolas Pépé from Lille. They also secured well-regarded left-back Kieran Tierney from Celtic, midfielder Dani Ceballos on loan from Real Madrid, and center-back David Luiz from Chelsea. This marked the dawn of the post-Arsène Wenger era.

2020: Chelsea. While the pandemic limited many clubs financially, Chelsea splurged a staggering €250 million on two of the Bundesliga’s finest young talents: Timo Werner from Leipzig and Kai Havertz from Bayer Leverkusen. They also acquired star playmaker Hakim Ziyech from Ajax and reliable left-back Ben Chilwell from Leicester City, along with goalkeeper Édouard Mendy from Rennes. They also signed superstar center-back Thiago Silva as a free agent.

2021: Paris Saint-Germain. Chelsea needed to address their striking weakness by signing Romelu Lukaku from Inter Milan, while Manchester United re-signed Cristiano Ronaldo and brought in sought-after young attacker Jadon Sancho from Borussia Dortmund. Yet, PSG emerged the true winners with the signings of Achraf Hakimi, Nuno Mendes, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Sergio Ramos, Georginio Wijnaldum, Danilo Pereira, and the one and only Lionel Messi.

2022: Manchester City. City had an instant win simply by signing Erling Haaland from Borussia Dortmund for just €60 million—significantly less than expected. They also bolstered their squad with England starter Kalvin Phillips, Manuel Akanji from Borussia Dortmund, and officially integrated Julián Álvarez from River Plate into their squad.

2023: Chelsea. This was BlueCo’s second summer in charge of Chelsea, but unlike their scattershot approach in 2022, they strategically targeted top players in 2023. They set a new record for transfer spending in a single window, acquiring high-profile names like Moisés Caicedo for a Premier League-record fee from Brighton, teenage sensation Romeo Lavia from Southampton, Manchester City’s Cole Palmer, and Leipzig’s offensive powerhouse Christopher Nkunku.

2024: Real Madrid. After clinching the Champions League title, they signed Mbappé as a free agent. That alone would suffice as a highlight, but they also brought in the next Brazilian sensation, Endrick, from Palmeiras, furthering their ambitions.

2025: Liverpool. They eclipsed the Premier League transfer record twice: first with Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen and again for Alexander Isak from Newcastle. They also splurged €95 million on the gifted Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt. Bournemouth’s Milos Kerkez was seen as a rising star in the left-back position. The €40 million investment in Leverkusen’s wingback Jeremie Frimpong seemed prudent. Additionally, 18-year-old Giovanni Leoni had already established himself as a starter at Parma, indicating a plan for life beyond Virgil van Dijk.

But what transpired after these 10 summers?

The Fallout of “Winning” the Transfer Window

If “winning the transfer window” was a genuine accomplishment, we would expect to see a clear connection between this success and, you know, winning actual soccer matches. But is that the case?

Below, you’ll find a summary of the last 10 summer window winners, detailing each club’s performance in the season preceding and following their celebrated transfer window:

So, what do you gain by winning the transfer window?

When averaged over a season, the results indicate:

• Points: a mere increase of 0.5
• Goal differential: a nominal advancement of 0.1
• Table position: an insignificant enhancement of 0.1

Winning the transfer window boils down to … essentially nothing, at least concerning domestic league performance.

In terms of European competitions, the outlook is slightly more favorable. Manchester United did capture the Europa League title in 2017. Liverpool won the Champions League in 2019 following their success in the summer 2018 transfer window—similar outcomes occurred for Chelsea in 2021 and City in 2023.

However, these tournaments are knockout events characterized by unpredictable results and uneven schedules. Thus, it’s wise to refrain from attributing significant performance shifts solely to effective summer dealings. The only club that undeniably improved across all areas following a successful transfer window is Liverpool in 2019. Yet, even in their case, a portion of their surge stemmed from factors such as Virgil van Dijk completing his first full season or Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold emerging as premier fullbacks simultaneously.

Why, then, does outstanding transfer performance not necessarily convert to on-field results?

Firstly, we in the media often struggle to accurately pinpoint “good” transfers. We tend to assess teams primarily on spending the most and acquiring high-profile players before declaring them winners.

This approach is flawed, especially given historical evidence demonstrating that most clubs struggle to identify talent, and expensive transfers frequently underperform. The transfer market is notably inefficient, with clubs investing heavily often becoming victims of market distortions.

Moreover, for a club to be celebrated as the summer window’s winner, they are typically correcting previous failures. Clubs like Manchester United and Chelsea have earned such accolades due to the need to resolve issues after underwhelming seasons. However, the same individuals making those costly decisions were responsible for the earlier disappointments.

Madrid and PSG often “win” windows due to their fixation on high-profile players rather than cultivating cohesive squads. Arsenal’s celebrated window stemmed from a desire to make a statement for their first manager post-Arsène Wenger.

Interestingly, Liverpool’s win in the recent transfer window was driven by their need for reinforcements following the departures of several key contributors from their Premier League title-winning squad.

So as we approach the end of this summer’s transfer window, let’s bear all of this in mind as we inevitably herald a “winner” in early September. Whichever team spends vast sums to bring in a flurry of flashy names? The most likely outcome is a return to the status quo rather than a transformative success.