After last season’s intense battle between Inter and Napoli, which saw them closely competing for 9 months, with twists and turns leading to Conte’s triumphant side, this year’s Serie A is taking a decidedly different course. Despite suffering a defeat in the Derby, Inter still holds a 7-point lead over Milan with only 10 matches remaining in the season.
Advertisement
Although the season is far from over and the age-old saying that “anything can happen in football” remains true, the historical data of Serie A strongly suggests that miracles are rare and comebacks of this scale are nearly impossible, especially with only 30 points left on the table.
❌ Historical Precedents: Bridging the Gap is Unlikely
If Milan were to win this championship, it would represent a remarkable achievement, as no team has ever managed to close a 7-point deficit with just 10 matches left since the 3-point victory system was introduced in Serie A. No team has ever managed to overcome such a gap.
Inter is no stranger to this situation; in the 2008/2009 season, under Mourinho’s leadership, they had a 7-point lead over Ranieri’s Juventus with 10 matches to play. They ultimately extended their lead to 10 points by the season’s end.
Throughout their Scudetto-winning campaigns, Inter have successfully handled leads of 9 points in the 2020/2021 season and an impressive 16 points in the dominating 2023/2024 season. In both instances, the title was never seriously contested.
🤯 Historic Comebacks: Milan’s 1999 Miracle
If we explore notable comebacks, there have been instances where trailing teams closed the gap with 10 matches to go. During the 1998/1999 season, Milan was 4 points behind with 10 matches remaining and even 7 points adrift from Lazio with 7 games left, yet they went on to become Champions of Italy.
Advertisement
In the 1999/2000 season, Lazio also pulled off a comeback against Juventus in a scenario similar to the current season. With only 8 matches left, Lazio found themselves 9 points behind Ancelotti’s team. This seemed nearly impossible unless Juventus faltered spectacularly, leading to a dramatic finish in Perugia.
In a memorable afternoon marred by rain, Juventus suffered a stunning defeat at the Curi Stadium after a lengthy interruption due to the downpour. Once the game resumed amid controversy, Calori’s goal secured the victory, igniting wild celebrations among Lazio fans.
This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.