Newcastle United have four remaining matches in the Premier League this season, creating scenarios where they could either find themselves relegated to the Championship or qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
Indeed, the upcoming fixtures could see the Magpies play either a Championship match against Lincoln City or a Champions League showdown with Real Madrid.
This scenario may seem far-fetched given that Newcastle currently sits in 14th place ahead of their match against sixth-place Brighton & Hove Albion at St James’ Park. They are 12 points clear of relegation but eight points behind the Seagulls, making a mid-table finish appear the most likely outcome for Howe’s squad this season.
However, the Premier League clarified this week that should Aston Villa finish fifth and win the Europa League, then the extra Champions League berth—granted to the Premier League based on its UEFA coefficient—would be awarded to the sixth-place team.
With eight points separating Brighton in sixth from Newcastle in 14th, as many as nine teams now see a potential path to the Champions League. Teams like Leeds United (15th, 40 points) and Nottingham Forest (16th, 39 points) still have ambitions to reach sixth, although their ongoing relegation battles make this difficult. Nonetheless, others like Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Everton, Fulham, Brentford, Chelsea, AFC Bournemouth, and Brighton all have varying degrees of chances to vie for sixth place.
Ultimately, this scenario hinges on Aston Villa achieving both a fifth-place finish and winning the Europa League. Currently, Unai Emery’s squad sits in fifth, trailing third-place Manchester United by just three points. If Villa finishes third or fourth, sixth place would not qualify for Champions League football, as fifth position would provide that route.
If either Manchester United or Liverpool finishes fifth, they will secure the European Performance Spot, provided they fail to qualify for the Champions League through the top four. Meanwhile, should Villa win the Europa League—starting with a semifinal against Forest this Thursday—they would claim a Champions League spot and miss the European Performance Spot if they finish fifth. This would then allow the sixth-place team to qualify for the Champions League, while the Europa League spot assigned to sixth would go to another league.
Newcastle’s situation is particularly compelling given their recent struggles and speculation surrounding Howe’s future. The team has lost four consecutive league matches, drifting closer to the relegation zone, leaving their fate uncertain. Both relegation and a push for sixth place seem difficult for Howe’s squad to achieve.
Sunderland, currently two spots and four points ahead of Newcastle, are also within reach of Brighton, as manager Regis Le Bris aims to secure a Champions League berth just a season after promotion from the Championship.
The most likely scenario for the race to sixth, should it become a Champions League qualification spot, involves up to six teams competing in a close contest over the season’s final month, with merely three points separating Brighton from Everton in 11th.
Clubs like Brighton, Bournemouth (seventh), and Brentford (ninth) are celebrated for their effective management and continue to challenge more prominent teams through smart recruitment strategies. Securing a European spot would be a major success for these clubs—only Brighton has experienced that before—while a Champions League place would be an unexpected bonus.
The potential for a place in the Champions League would similarly benefit Fulham (10th), who have memories of reaching the Europa League final against Atlético Madrid, and Everton, who has taken advantage of their new stadium to push for a top-10 finish under David Moyes.
The possibility of entering the Champions League via sixth place could also provide a lifeline for Chelsea, who fell to eighth following a disappointing 3-0 loss to Brighton last week—this led to Liam Rosenior being dismissed after a brief 106-day tenure.
Following a streak of five consecutive league losses without scoring under Rosenior, Chelsea found themselves ten points behind Villa and seemingly out of the Champions League race. Yet, they bounced back with a recent FA Cup semifinal win against Leeds, setting up a showdown with Manchester City in next month’s final, signaling a potential turnaround for Chelsea. Gaining entrance to the Champions League would be monumental, especially if another English club secures a European trophy.
Ultimately, both Chelsea and nearly half of the Premier League rely on Aston Villa’s performance going forward.