After the West Ham United goal that was controversially disallowed against Arsenal, West Ham now faces a grim reality of potential relegation.
According to data analysts Opta, West Ham has just a 12% chance of avoiding the drop, with Tottenham Hotspur as the only club they could potentially surpass.
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The Hammers believed they had salvaged a draw against Arsenal with a late goal from Callum Wilson in stoppage time.
However, a game-changing video assistant referee review led to the goal being disqualified for a foul by Pablo on goalkeeper David Raya, which left West Ham furious.
This result allowed Leandro Trossard to score the winning goal in the 83rd minute.
Besides bringing Arsenal closer to clinching the title, Mikel Arteta’s side also aided their arch-rivals, Tottenham.
Spurs now have the opportunity to extend their lead to four points with two matches remaining as they prepare to face Leeds United, who can now relax as both they and Nottingham Forest are now safe, with their match scheduled for Monday at 20:00 BST.
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“This is going to be a challenge,” stated Hammers manager Nuno Espirito Santo – who began the season at Forest – in an interview with BBC Sport. “Our fate isn’t solely in our hands. We will fight until the end. It’s our duty to strive for survival as we represent a significant club in these final matches.”
West Ham’s last season outside the Premier League was in 2011-2012.
Survival Strategies for West Ham
West Ham could potentially face relegation as soon as next Sunday, just one week before the Premier League season ends.
This scenario would unfold if Spurs defeat Leeds on Monday and the Hammers lose against Newcastle United next weekend.
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Spurs, sitting just one point ahead of West Ham with a game in hand, will ensure their safety by winning two of their three remaining matches.
Following their match against Leeds, Spurs will face Chelsea away followed by a home game against Everton on the last match day.
West Ham, who will host Leeds on the final day, must accumulate at least two more points than Spurs due to a significant goal difference disadvantage.
With Wolves and Burnley’s relegations already confirmed, West Ham must act quickly.
“We played well,” Nuno reflected after their loss to Arsenal. “The players showed great character and the crowd at the stadium provided fantastic support. We are aware of our situation and fought hard.
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“We intend to continue pushing until the season’s final moments. With just two matches left, we must fight and remember that anything is possible. It’s undoubtedly challenging, but we’ve been competitive, particularly at London Stadium. The crowd’s energy was infectious for the players. We will give it our all.”
Other Teams Affecting West Ham’s Future
If relegated, West Ham will face the consequences of having stronger teams around them this season.
With 36 points and two matches remaining, even if they lose both, they could have the highest points total for a relegated team in a decade.
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Newcastle was relegated with 37 points back in 2015-16. The past two seasons saw no teams relegated with 30 points or more, and just two years ago, Nottingham Forest remained safe with 32 points.
Historically, since the Premier League’s expansion to 20 teams in 1995-96, the average points required for survival has been 36.
Unfortunately for Nuno and West Ham, the clubs above them have started collecting points at a critical time.
While West Ham’s form is decent, currently sitting 11th in the six-match form table, they remain overshadowed by teams like Forest, who are unbeaten in their last eight, and Leeds, who are fifth despite having played only five matches recently.
Spurs have managed to win their last two games under new manager Roberto de Zerbi.
Hammers captain Jarrod Bowen mentioned, “It’s definitely going to be a tough challenge. But we never give up at this club. We have two matches left, and we did a lot of good things on Sunday. We need to get the wins.”
Shifts in Management at the Bottom
A significant amount of managerial changes have occurred towards the bottom of the league table.
Forest parted ways with Nuno in September, who quickly took over at West Ham after they dismissed Graham Potter.
Forest then appointed Ange Postecoglou, previously associated with troubled Spurs, but he was soon let go and replaced by Sean Dyche, who also left shortly after.
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Vitor Pereira, who had previously been dismissed by Wolves, was the one to secure Forest’s safety.
Spurs moved on from Postecoglou to Thomas Frank over the summer, who also faced dismissal, along with interim Igor Tudor, before they finally appointed de Zerbi, who has successfully steered them out of relegation contention.
Rob Edwards couldn’t keep Wolves afloat, while Burnley only let go of Scott Parker after confirming their relegation.