The U.S. Will Triumph in…

Gerald Skinner, a former NASA employee, authored scientific papers with titles such as “The Galactic Distribution of the 511 keV e+/e- Annihilation Radiation” and “Antimatter in the Universe and the PAMELA/FERMI/AMS Anomaly.”

However, in 2009, he shifted gears, tackling a subject seemingly less complex than the invisible forces behind the Milky Way: soccer.

Teaming up with colleague Guy Freeman, Skinner penned a paper for the Journal of Applied Statistics exploring whether the outcomes of matches indicate the true strengths of the teams involved.

One of their most notable claims is that if soccer match results accurately reflected team strength, it should be impossible for scenarios to occur where Team A defeats Team B, Team B defeats Team C, and Team C defeats Team A—what they term an “intransitive triplet.” Such patterns should not exist if scores reveal true superiority.

Their analysis of World Cup matches from 1938 to 2006 revealed that 12% of triplet outcomes were indeed intransitive, a figure that may initially appear modest but is significant when considering that random results would suggest a 25% frequency of such occurrences. Thus, the results were nearly indistinguishable from random chance.

Concerned by their findings, they titled the paper: “Are Soccer Matches Badly Designed Experiments?” They further suggested that based on optimistic estimates, there exists less than a one-in-three chance that the best team actually wins the World Cup.

In an effort to enhance competitive accuracy, they proposed: (1) expanding the size of soccer goals to increase scoring and bolster confidence in outcomes and (2) extending matches with extra time until a sufficient goal difference ensures confidence in the result.

Fast forward to seventeen years later, and the dimensions of the goals remain unchanged, and regulations still restrict extra time to just 30 minutes. What does this imply?

It suggests that the U.S. Men’s National Team could very well clinch the World Cup title. Share the news; NASA backs this theory.

However, instead of merely insinuating a possibility, let’s delve into the history of the World Cup and assert with conviction. This article outlines why the USMNT has a strong chance of winning the 2026 World Cup.

---

Reason 1: The No. 1 FIFA-ranked team has never won the World Cup

Since FIFA launched its global ranking system in 1992, based on match outcomes but not accounting for opponent strength or match significance, an intriguing trend has emerged: the top-ranked team has never lifted the World Cup trophy. Consequently, congratulations to France, who recently dropped from first to third in the rankings after losing to Ivory Coast.

Here are the last five pre-tournament No. 1 ranked teams:

• 2022: Brazil
• 2018: Germany
• 2014: Spain
• 2010: Brazil
• 2006: Brazil

None managed to reach the semifinals, with two failing to progress past the group stage.

The current pre-tournament No. 1? Argentina, who recently overtook Spain after La Roja’s 1-1 draw with Iraq.

In contrast, the U.S. sits comfortably at No. 17.

Eliminated team: Argentina

Reason 2: The reigning Ballon d’Or winner has never won the World Cup

France may have sidestepped the misfortune of entering the tournament as the top FIFA-ranked team, but they’ve cultivated a footballing culture so rich that they consistently produce some of the world’s premier players.

Since the inception of the Ballon d’Or in 1956, the award’s holder has never secured a World Cup victory. This speaks volumes about the impact an individual player can have on a team but does not guarantee success. The prior five holders before recent tournaments were:

• 2006: Ronaldinho
• 2010: Lionel Messi
• 2014: Cristiano Ronaldo
• 2018: Cristiano Ronaldo
• 2022: Karim Benzema

Ronaldinho’s Brazil fell in the quarterfinals, Messi’s Argentina also lost, while Ronaldo’s Portugal didn’t progress past group play in 2014 and exited in the round of 16 in 2018. Benzema didn’t even make it to the squad for the 2022 World Cup.

The latest Ballon d’Or recipient was Benzema’s ex-teammate, Ousmane Dembélé. Notably, no American player has ever even been nominated for the men’s Ballon d’Or.

Eliminated team: France

Reason 3: A debutant has never won

Except for the initial two World Cups—marked by limited participation due to global conflicts and the absence of commercial air travel—no first-time entrant has ever won the tournament.

This means teams like Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan will not emerge victorious this summer either. The U.S. is competing in its 11th World Cup.

Eliminated teams: Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan, Uzbekistan

Reason 4: No playoff team has ever won

Here’s a nugget of soccer trivia: To emerge victorious in the World Cup, qualification is a prerequisite. The expanding tournament format has created various avenues for entry, yet no team has ever won after failing to qualify via the first phase of their confederation.

In Asia, that rules out Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who qualified through the AFC’s second group stage. In Europe, teams like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Türkiye, and Czechia surged through playoff matches to reach North America. Moreover, Congo DR and Iraq entered via FIFA’s intercontinental playoff.

The U.S. naturally qualified as the host country.

Eliminated teams: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sweden, Türkiye, Czechia, Congo DR, Iraq

Reason 5: No manager has ever won both the Premier League and the World Cup

Being a successful club manager doesn’t necessarily correlate with international triumph. Only two coaches in history have won both the Champions League and the World Cup: Marcello Lippi (with Juventus and Italy) and Vicente del Bosque (with Real Madrid and Spain). Franz Beckenbauer managed to achieve similar success in the Bundesliga and the World Cup, as did Didier Deschamps in Ligue 1.

Yet, no coach has ever secured both the Premier League and the World Cup. Unfortunately for Brazil, Carlo Ancelotti, the only manager in this summer’s lineup with a Premier League title, means they won’t be taking home the trophy.

U.S. Men’s National Team head coach Mauricio Pochettino led Paris Saint-Germain to a Ligue 1 title but left the Premier League without any silverware.

Eliminated team: Brazil

Reason 6: No manager aged 60 or older has ever won the World Cup

You might glance at Germany’s Julian Nagelsmann, sporting oversized shirts and famously arriving to practice on a skateboard, and dismiss the idea that a millennial manager could claim the World Cup. In actuality, Uruguay triumphed under the direction of 31-year-old Alberto Suppici during the inaugural tournament. The record stands that no manager eligible for Medicare in the U.S. has lifted the World Cup trophy; Vicente del Bosque was the oldest, taking Spain to victory at 59.

This suggests we should exclude many teams this summer.

Eliminated teams: Scotland, South Africa, Austria, Colombia, Netherlands, Spain, Iran, Uruguay, Algeria, Mexico, Paraguay, Belgium, Ghana

Reason 7: The only first-time trophy-winner since 1966 was a host nation

Since 1966, just one country has secured its first significant international trophy at the World Cup: England in 1966, when long-distance travel was still evolving, and the home advantage was unparalleled.

This assumption effectively rules out nations without any World Cup or continental tournament victories unless they are hosts. However, both of the 2026 World Cup hosts, Canada and the U.S., have previously earned the Gold Cup.

In Europe, Croatia, Norway, and Switzerland are all without trophies. South America’s Ecuador has never even reached a Copa America final. The North American Gold Cup has only been won by the future hosts of the 2026 World Cup, thereby eliminating Haiti and Panama. Among Africa’s five remaining competitors (Egypt, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Morocco, and Tunisia), all have secured at least one Africa Cup of Nations title. Similarly, all remaining Asian teams (Japan, South Korea, and Australia) have won some form of international trophy, as have New Zealand, reigning champions of the OFC Men’s Nations Cup.

Eliminated teams: Croatia, Norway, Switzerland, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama

Reason 8: England has never won an international tournament outside of England

Once regarded as the home of football, England has yet to see any tournament victories occur outside its borders.

Despite entering this World Cup as significant favorites, history implies the U.S. has little to fear.

Eliminated team: England

Reason 9: No team ranked worse than 18th in the FIFA rankings has won the World Cup

The lowest-ranked team to win since the rankings debuted was France in 1998, entering as the 18th-best team globally.

This rules out New Zealand (85), Egypt (29), Ivory Coast (33), Canada (30), South Korea (25), Australia (27), and Tunisia (45).

With the U.S. comfortably positioned at No. 17, they fall right within the hopeful contenders’ realm.

Eliminated teams: Japan

Reason 10: No player over the age of 40 has ever won the World Cup

The oldest player to win the World Cup is Dino Zoff, the 40-year-old captain of Italy in the 1982 World Cup.

Barring unforeseen injuries, Cristiano Ronaldo will lead Portugal into the tournament as captain and starting striker, having turned 41 this past February.

The oldest player on the U.S. World Cup roster, Tim Ream, is merely 38, making history as the oldest U.S. player to participate in a World Cup.

Eliminated team: Portugal

Reason 11: Every World Cup winner since 1982 has employed at least one player from one of these top teams

In the past eleven World Cups, each champion’s roster has included a player from elite clubs such as Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Inter Milan, or Liverpool.

For instance, in the last five World Cup champions:

• 2006: AC Milan’s Gennaro Gattuso, Alberto Gilardino, Alessandro Nesta, Filippo Inzaghi, Andrea Pirlo; Marco Materazzi (Inter Milan)
• 2010: Fernando Torres (Liverpool)
• 2014: Numerous Bayern Munich players, including Manuel Neuer, Philipp Lahm, Jerome Boateng, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Toni Kroos, Thomas Müller, Mario Götze
• 2018: Corentin Tolisso (Bayern Munich)
• 2022: Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan)

Among the remaining teams, neither Senegal nor Morocco has any permanent players endorsed by Bayern, Liverpool, or the Milan giants.

In contrast, the U.S. boasts AC Milan’s Christian Pulisic.

Eliminated teams: Senegal, Morocco

Reason 12: A team eliminated from the group stages in two consecutive World Cups has never won the next World Cup

The correlation between past World Cup success and future outcomes is telling. Here’s how the last five champions previously fared:

• Italy, 2006: Lost in the round of 16 in 2002
• Spain, 2010: Lost in the round of 16 in 2006
• Germany, 2014: Lost in the semifinals in 2010
• France, 2018: Lost in the quarterfinals in 2014
• Argentina, 2022: Lost in the round of 16 in 2018

Bizarrely, only one team has won the World Cup after being ousted in the group stages previously: Brazil in 1970.

Meanwhile, Germany has faced elimination in two consecutive group stages, creating a compelling narrative that favors the U.S., who exited in the last 16 at the previous World Cup.

Eliminated team: Germany

Reason 13: Across the past 10 World Cups, no team has won without someone who has scored at least 17 international goals on the roster

Winners of the World Cup typically feature a standout goal scorer—with a rare exception being France’s triumph in 1998, where Stephane Guivarc’h, despite starting as center forward, had only netted once in his international career up to that point.

France’s offensive power instead came from Zinedine Zidane and Youri Djorkaeff, leading to a historic win. Presently, Japan’s top scorer, Ayase Ueda, has only 16 goals, falling short of the mark, while Pulisic stands strong with 33 international goals.

Eliminated team: Japan

With all 13 criteria meticulously considered, only one nation remains viable for victory: The United States is primed to claim the 2026 World Cup.